GAO: Lack of Ground System Schedule Margin Adds to Likelihood of Artemis II Delay

A lack of schedule margin in NASA’s Exploration Ground Systems program is adding to the likelihood that Artemis II will be delayed according to the Government Accountability Office. Scheduled for launch in September 2025, Artemis II will send astronauts around the Moon for the first time since Apollo.  In a report released today, GAO acknowledges that the EGS program is making progress, but nonetheless expects delays not only for Artemis II, but the next two Artemis missions in 2026 and 2028.

The Artemis EGS program is located at Kennedy Space Center, the launch site for the Space Launch System (SLS) rocket and its Orion spacecraft. EGS is also responsible for recovering the spacecraft after it splashes down in the Pacific Ocean, but the majority of its activities are at KSC.

EGS is responsible for integrating SLS — the central core, the solid rocket boosters, the Orion spacecraft and other components — moving it to the launch pad and sending it into space.

SLS is transported from the Vehicle Assembly Building (VAB) to the launch pad attached to a Mobile Launcher atop a Crawler-Transporter. The Mobile Launcher not only holds the rocket in place, but provides connections for electrical power and propellant loading and serves other critical functions.

The existing Mobile Launcher 1 (ML-1) is used for the current version of SLS — Block I — that launched Artemis I on an uncrewed test flight in 2022 and will be used for Artemis II and Artemis III. A taller, sturdier ML-2 is under construction for the larger SLS Block IB now being developed for Artemis IV and beyond.

During the Artemis I launch, ML1 sustained more damage than expected. The EGS program is busy refurbishing it and adding other elements needed for Artemis II, which will carry a crew of four.

According to GAO, EGS has “completed a large amount of work,” but much more remains to be done and time is running short.

In January, NASA Administrator Bill Nelson announced that Artemis II would launch in September 2025, a nine month delay from its previous schedule. Now that’s less than a year away. EGS is working hard to get software and hardware ready, but a lot of testing remains to be done and testing is the phase when problems often surface. NASA takes that into account and builds in schedule reserve, but all the margin already has been used up, prompting GAO’s assessment that a delay is likely.

The GAO report did not address other issues that could delay Artemis II including NASA’s continued investigation of why the Orion heat shield behaved differently than expected as the capsule reentered through Earth’s atmosphere on December 11, 2022.  The heat shield experienced significant char loss and experts are still diagnosing what happened and how to resolve it nearly two years later.

The next flight will be Artemis III, the first mission to land astronauts on the Moon since Apollo 17 in 1972. Nelson set that launch date as September 2026, also a delay from the previous schedule.

As with Artemis II there are a number of reasons the September 2026 launch date may not hold, including when SpaceX’s Human Landing System and Axiom Space’s lunar spacesuits will be ready, but EGS could be a factor for that mission, too. With just one year between Artemis II and Artemis III, there will be limited time to make any needed repairs to ML-1 or software changes.

Larger hurdles lie ahead for the next flight, Artemis IV, currently planned for December 2028. It will be the first to use the upgraded SLS Block IB and its ML-2.  NASA contracted with Bechtel to build ML-2, but it has experienced lengthy delays and cost overruns.  NASA Administrator Bill Nelson publicly scolded the company during congressional hearings two years ago.  Although Nelson has since indicated the company’s performance is improving, two months ago NASA’s Inspector General issued a harsh report on NASA’s management of the ML-2 program.

Today’s GAO report says a “significant amount of work remains” for ML-2 and much of it can’t be done until after Artemis III launches.

With ML-2 as “the primary schedule driver” for Artemis IV, GAO’s one recommendation in this report is that the EGS program and the ML-2 project conduct “at least one” Schedule Risk Analysis (SRA) before beginning integration for Artemis IV.

“Performing this [SRA] analysis would provide insight into ML2’s readiness for the mission and inform NASA management’s resource decisions leading up to integration for Artemis IV.” — GAO

NASA declined to do so, however.  In its response (published as an appendix), the agency said it has other “schedule analysis tools and reports to continuously assess schedule performance and risk” and “believes these efforts meet the intent” of GAO’s recommendation.