Russia Planning International Asteroid Deflection Mission

Russian space agency head Anatoly Perminov reportedly is leading an effort to plan an international asteroid deflection mission. Voice of Russia and other news sources quote Perminov as saying that Russia wants to launch a mission to the asteroid Apophis that could divert it from a potential collision with Earth in 2036 (Voice of Russia mistakenly says 2032). Perminov reportedly wants experts from other countries, including the United States, Europe and China to join the project.

Alarm about the possibility that Apophis might hit Earth was quelled by NASA analysis in 2009 showing a much reduced chance of such a catastrophe. Initial reports of a 2.9% probability of a collision in 2029 have been completely refuted, but a small chance of a collision in 2036 remains. Originally the likelihood of a 2036 collision was calculated at one in 45,000, but NASA now estimates it at four-in-a-million.

The National Research Council is currently studying better methods to discover and track Near Earth Objects (NEOs) — asteroids and comets — and how to mitigate the hazards they pose. Its report is expected soon.