Today’s Tidbits: March 28, 2018

Here are our tidbits for March 28, 2018:  latest Tiangong-1 reentry predictions; snapshots from NAC meetings re lunar plans, commercial crew, international cooperation and more.  Be sure to check our website for feature stories and follow us on Twitter (@SpcPlcyOnline) for more news and live tweeting of events.

Tiangong-1 Reentry Update

Predictions on when China’s small Tiangong-1 space station will reenter are narrowing to the morning of March 31 to the morning of April 2.  That’s expressed in Coordinated Universal Time (UTC), the international time standard, which is the same as Greenwich Mean Time (GMT) or “Zulu.”  Eastern Daylight Time is UTC-4.

• The Aerospace Corporation’s current estimate is April 1 at 07:15 UTC, plus or minus 20 hours.
• ESA/ESOC’s current estimate is from the morning of March 31 to the afternoon of April 1 UTC.

There is some worry that if April 1 is the reentry date, it could spark April Fool’s jokes with misleading information.  Even without that, well-meaning people may THINK they have observed the reentry when it fact it’s something else (like an airplane or a meteor).  It will be best to wait for official word from the Chinese government (probably through its Xinhua news service, which is available on the Internet in English), ESA/ESOC, or U.S. Air Force Space Command.

Snapshots from the NASA Advisory Council (NAC) Meetings

Two NASA Advisory Council (NAC) committees met earlier this week and NAC itself met today (that meeting continues tomorrow).  The committees were Technology, Innovation & Engineering (TI&E) and Human Exploration and Operations (HEO).   Listening to the NASA presentations is like drinking from a firehose, as they say.  It’s far too much to summarize in detail, but here a few snapshots from our  tweets.  Check our Twitter feed (@SpcPlcyOnline) for more.

Lunar Plans and the Gateway 

(Bill Gerstenmaier or “Gerst” is NASA’s Associate Administrator for Human Exploration and Operations, Jason Crusan is Director for Advanced Exploration Systems)

Q-any pressure to set date for landing ppl on Moon?
Gerstenmaier-budgets drive how fast we can move. That’s why we’re phasing Gateway, starting with PPE. Can’t afford big new program. As some point we may get pressure, but not with this transition anyway.

— Marcia Smith (@SpcPlcyOnline) March 27, 2018

Crusan presenting results of recent science on Gateway conf.
Amt of data science will generate is “staggering.”
Scientists worried if Gateway too “noisy” could ruin pristine radio silence of far side. pic.twitter.com/4ew9gqlA59

— Marcia Smith (@SpcPlcyOnline) March 27, 2018

Q-still need Gateway when goal is Moon not Mars?
Gerst-Gateway still fits in architecture. Good waypoint. Reusable, not like expendable Apollo mission arch.
Big change is not bldg deep space transport. Lunar lander instead.

— Marcia Smith (@SpcPlcyOnline) March 26, 2018

Cmte mbrs – with all these ideas might have more than one Gateway: govt + crmcl.
Crusan & Gerstenmaier — not doing anything to preclude that, but key is what are revenue generating opportunities in lunar orbit? Still trying to figure that out for LEO.

— Marcia Smith (@SpcPlcyOnline) March 27, 2018

Commercial Crew Update

(Kathy Lueders is Commercial Crew Program Manager; Wayne Hale is a committee member)

Lueders: want to do this ASAP, but don’t want to add risk to crew.
Woman on cmte: yes, don’t let schedule rule.
Wayne Hale: safety is impt, but spaceflight is a risky biz. Prog mgrs make risk decisions every day based on cost, skdl. Only way to be perfectly safe is to stay home.

— Marcia Smith (@SpcPlcyOnline) March 26, 2018

 

Lueder’s chart on current status of c crew launches, but she cautions that the dates are constantly under review. pic.twitter.com/asppyZrHqI

— Marcia Smith (@SpcPlcyOnline) March 26, 2018

 

Lueders summary chart. “Next year, year and a half will be critical for us.”

[The last bullet is the key] pic.twitter.com/KXu3CRb5dX

— Marcia Smith (@SpcPlcyOnline) March 26, 2018

During the discussion, Lueders agreed with a committee member who characterized the schedule as “aggressive”.

Proposal to Eliminate the Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD)

(Steve Jurczyk is Acting NASA Associate Administrator and until recently head of  STMD; Bill Ballhaus chairs the NAC TI&E committee; Jim Reuter is Acting Associate Administrator for STMD;  Gerst is Bill Gerstenmaier.)

Jurczyk and cmte chair Bill Ballhaus agree that adv of reorg is giving sense of urgency to space tech that’s been lacking. But disadv is that space tech money could be shifted to development when development program run into trouble. Need mechanisms to avoid that.

— Marcia Smith (@SpcPlcyOnline) March 26, 2018

Q – why reorganize? Program well integrated across agency already.
Gerst – agree. Not sure there’s much advantage moving STMD into the directorate, but we’re looking at it as directed in budget request.

— Marcia Smith (@SpcPlcyOnline) March 26, 2018

Technology Focus Areas for Future

Reuter’s chart of what the key technology focus areas will be in the new Exploration Research & Technology budget account. pic.twitter.com/JSiXgUqqoD

— Marcia Smith (@SpcPlcyOnline) March 26, 2018

Commercial Robotic Lunar Landers

Reuter: re small lunar lander initiative, due to Lunar CATALYST program, we think cmrcl companies are far enuf along we can buy services from them. We’ll provide instruments.
SMD is leading this; will put out call later this year.

— Marcia Smith (@SpcPlcyOnline) March 26, 2018

Update on NASA Administrator

Acting Assoc Admin Steve Jurczyk: Lightfoot’s last day in the office will be April 20. White House plan is for Bridenstine to be confirmed by then. No plan B at this point.
We will really, really miss Lightfoot. Don’t know where he’s headed other than back to Huntsville.

— Marcia Smith (@SpcPlcyOnline) March 26, 2018

International Cooperation

(Kathy Laurini is Senior Advisor, Exploration and Space)

Laurini slide of takeaways from the International Space Exploration Forum-2 (ISEF-2) held in Tokyo on March 3. [first summary I’ve seen of what transpired there.] She said 3 documents were issued and are posted at https://t.co/zj4jAzvI28 pic.twitter.com/s3Xf3W5vr5

— Marcia Smith (@SpcPlcyOnline) March 27, 2018

Kathy Laurini talking about Global Expl Roadmap (GER) and intl role.
Newest version (2018) of GER has CONCEPTUAL lunar ideas. One is to have robotic rover that is moved around the Moon remotely doing sci along the way, while crews visit periodically. pic.twitter.com/vHORTH1Jmu

— Marcia Smith (@SpcPlcyOnline) March 27, 2018

Laurini-intl partners ARE interested, don’t want to be left behind, but (1) their budgets don’t match their ambitions and (2) we have not provided stable env for them to make decisions (debating Moon v Mars). They need to know their money wld be put to good use before committing.

— Marcia Smith (@SpcPlcyOnline) March 27, 2018

Recently Published on SpacePolicyOnline.com 

• JWST Slips Another Year to 2020, Could Breach $8 Billion Cost Cap
• China’s Tiangong-1 Reentry Expected In Next Few Days
• Updated SpacePolicyOnline.com Fact Sheets Now Available
• NASA to Provide JWST Update Tomorrow Following Independent Review
• What’s Happening in Space Policy March 26-30, 2018
• White House Releases Fact Sheet on New National Space Strategy – Updated
• Congress Passes $1.3 Trillion FY2018 Omnibus Spending Bill, Includes NASA, NOAA (Update)
• Today’s Tidbits: March 22, 2018
  • House committee approves two space bills; Soyuz MS-08 crew on track to dock with ISS tomorrow; Cindy Hyde-Smith to become 23rd female Senator in 115th Congress.
• NOAA’s Polar Follow On Program Gets Boost in Final FY2018 Appropriations
• NASA Budget To Soar Over $20 Billion in Final FY2018 Appropriations
• Hyten Not Ready to Endorse Space Force
• Will JWST Breach Its $8 Billion Cost Cap?  Results of Independent Review Could Come Next Week
• Bipartisan Group of 61 House Members Urges Senate to Confirm Bridenstine
• Today’s Tidbits: March 19, 2018
  • NASA’s Jim Green — it’s our time in the sun; Jeff Bezos visits NRO; an unsung hero – the Deep Space Network.