UARS Reentry Prediction Unchanged – What is Your Risk of Being Hit?
Today’s update on NASA’s website about the impending reentry of the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) retains the prediction that it will come back to Earth on Friday, plus or minus a day. The prediction has been the same for the past several days.
Exactly when it will reenter remains uncertain. NASA says predictions will become more refined in the next two days. Where it reenters depends on when it reenters, so stay tuned.
The Weather Channel’s space weather twitter channel (@twcspacewx) tweeted some interesting statistics about the chances of a particular individual being hit by the debris. NASA’s assessment that there is a one in 3,200 chance of “a” human casualty does not mean that a particular individual — you — will be hit. TWC calculates that any single individual on Earth has about a one in 20 million chance. Check out their math on Twitter!
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