Author: Marcia Smith

House CJS Subcommittee wants NRC Blessing on New Mars Mission or Money Goes to Europa

House CJS Subcommittee wants NRC Blessing on New Mars Mission or Money Goes to Europa

The draft bill that the House Appropriations Commerce-Justice-Science (CJS) subcommittee is scheduled to markup tomorrow morning would allocate $150 million to “Mars Next Decade.”   However, the bill also requires the National Research Council (NRC) to certify that the new Mars program will lead to accomplishment of a Mars sample return mission as dictated by the recent NRC Decadal Survey for planetary science or the money will be reallocated to study Jupiter’s moon Europa.

Mars Next Decade is the new integrated plan NASA is developing to replace the Mars strategy it recently abandoned for budgetary reasons.  The previous plan was for a series of robotic missions conducted in cooperation with the European Space Agency (ESA) beginning in 2016 and 2018.  Those two missions would be followed by others that were to collect and store (“cache”) samples from different parts of Mars and eventually return them to Earth for analysis.   NASA formally notified ESA that it would not be able to participate in those missions after the FY2013 President’s budget request was released showing a 21 percent cut to NASA’s planetary science budget in FY2013 and additional cuts in subsequent years.

NASA is now developing a new Mars exploration strategy, Mars Next Decade, that responds to the needs of the Science Mission Directorate (SMD) as well as the Human Exploration and Operations Directorate, with input from the Office of Chief Technologist and Office of Chief Scientist.  NASA officials stress that President Obama directed the agency to develop a plan to send humans to the vicinity of Mars in the 2030s and thus a plan in needed that addresses not only science but human exploration requirements.

The draft bill would increase the total amount available for SMD in FY2013 from the $4.911 billion requested to $5.095 billion, of which $150 million is designated for Mars Next Decade.   The bill requires, however, that the NRC certify to Congress that “the chosen mission concept will lead to the accomplishment of Mars sample return as described in the most recent [NRC] decadal survey.”   If the NRC cannot make that certification,  the money “shall be reallocated to the development of a Jupiter Europa orbiter, consistent with the priorities in the aformentioned decadal survey.”

Jupiter is one of the outer planets (beyond the asteroid belt) and members of the planetary science community who focus on that region of the solar system have been arguing for a new “outer planets flagship” mission for years.   Flagship missions are the most complicated and expensive missions in SMD’s stable, usually requiring innovative technologies and promising breakthrough scientific results.  The NASA-ESA Cassini-Huygens mission is the most recent outer planets flagship mission.  Launched in 1997, Cassini arrived at Saturn in 2004 and is still studying the planet and its moons.  One of the moons, Titan, has an atmosphere and has been the object of intense scientific interest for many decades.  An ESA-built probe, Huygens, detached from Cassini and traversed Titan’s atmosphere in 2005 and landed on its surface.   Huygens providing tantalizing images that whetted the appetite of scientists and the public for more.

In addition to Cassini, two other missions are currently headed to the outer solar system.  Both are more modest missions, but still will produce exciting science.   The New Horizons mission was launched in 2006 and will reach Pluto in 2015, and the Juno mission was launched last year for its 5-year journey to Jupiter.   They and Cassini are expected to complete their missions by about 2017-2018 and outer planet scientists want a new mission to replace them.

There are many fascinating places to visit in the outer solar system, however.   Scientists are especially eager to study another Saturnian moon, Enceladus, and one of Jupiter’s moons, Europa.   Liquid water may exist there, with the consequent possibility of life.

Choosing among the many places to visit within a constrained budget is a task left to the NRC and its decadal survey process wherein the relevant science community reaches consensus after significant debate on the top scientific priorities for a given 10-year period (a decade, hence the term “decadal survey”).   The most recent NRC planetary science decadal survey ranked returning a sample of Mars to Earth as its first priority for a flagship mission, with a Europa mission second.  The report laid out decision criteria for which of its top priority flagship missions should proceed depending on mission costs and funding availability.

The current fiscal environment was not envisioned when that study began, however.  With intense focus today on cutting the federal deficit, many agenices are in fiscal distress, including NASA.   In the FY2013 budget request,  NASA’s planetary science budget took the biggest cut of all of NASA’s mission areas.   The planetary science community is not just hoping, but expecting, Congress to come to the rescue.  It appears they are correct.  The Senate Appropriations CJS subcommittee marked up its version of the bill yesterday, adding $100 million for Mars exploration.  The text of that bill has not been released, so whether it includes similar provisions about obtaining an NRC certification that any new Mars mission conforms with the decadal survey is unclear.  The full Senate Appropriations Committee will markup that bill tomorrow morning also.

The House CJS subcommittee markup is at 9:30 am ET tomorrow morning in H-140 Capitol.   The Senate full committee markup of the CJS bill is at 10:30 in 192 Dirksen.

House CJS Subcommittee Will Recommend Cuts to the President's Requests for NASA and NOAA

House CJS Subcommittee Will Recommend Cuts to the President's Requests for NASA and NOAA

The House Appropriations Committee’s Commerce-Justice-Science (CJS) subcommittee will recommend a $138 million cut to the funding requested by President Obama for NASA at its markup tomorrow.  While some activities are cut, others are increased, such as planetary exploration.  The NOAA budget would be cut from the request of $5.1 billion to $5.0 billion.    Markup is scheduled for 9:30 tomorrow morning in H-140 Capitol.   The committee’s website says it will not be webcast.

Following are the relevant sections from the committee’s press release today.  NOAA is part of the Department of Commerce.

National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) – NASA is funded at $17.6 billion in the bill, which is $226 million below fiscal year 2012 and $138 million below the President’s request. This funding includes:

 ·         $3.7 billion for Exploration – $59 million below fiscal year 2012. This includes funding to keep NASA on schedule for upcoming Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle and Space Launch System flight milestones and to maintain progress in a reconfigured commercial crew program.

 ·         $4 billion for Space Operations – $249 million below fiscal year 2012. The legislation will continue the closeout of the Space Shuttle program for a savings of $503 million.

 ·         $5.1 billion for NASA Science programs – $5 million above fiscal year 2012. This includes $1.4 billion for planetary science to ensure the continuation of critical research and development programs that were imperiled by the President’s request. This also includes $628 million, as requested, for the James Webb Space Telescope. 

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) – The legislation contains $5.0 billion for NOAA, which is $68 million above fiscal year 2012 and $93 million below the President’s request. Within this total, National Weather Service operations and systems are funded at $22.3 million above the requested level, and $916 million, the full request, is included for the Joint Polar Satellite System weather satellite program to ensure the continuation of important weather data collection.  These weather programs are essential to maintain and improve weather forecasting to warn communities about potentially devastating natural disasters.

Satellite Industry Applauds DOD's Sec. 1248 Report on Satellite Export Controls

Satellite Industry Applauds DOD's Sec. 1248 Report on Satellite Export Controls

The Satellite Industry Association (SIA) applauded the Department of Defense’s (DOD’s) final report on the national security implications of relaxing export control regulations on satellites.  The “sec. 1248” report was released today.

The report was prepared by DOD and the State Department in response to sec. 1248 of the FY2010 defense authorization act wherein Congress directed DOD to assess whether national security would be negatively impacted by moving satellites from the U.S. Munitions List (USML) controlled by the State Department to the dual-use Commerce Control List (CCL) administered by the Commerce Department. 

The White House issued a fact sheet summarizing the report.

The report concludes that communications satellites that do not contain classified components and remote sensing satellites with performance parameters below certain thresholds do not contain technologies unique to the United States and are not critical to national security.  Thus, they would be more appropriately designated as dual-use on the CCL list instead of on the USML.  That also applies to systems, subsystems, parts and components associated with the satellites.  At a press conference today, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy Gregory Schulte said it would move “hundreds of thousands” of components from the USML to the CCL.

U.S. satellite manufacturers have been seeking relief from the comparatively onerous export control system dictated by the USML and its associated International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) for more than a decade.  The George H.W. Bush and Clinton Administrations had moved commercial communications satellites from the USML to the CCL in the early 1990s.   Congress reversed that decision in the FY1999 defense authorization act (P.L. 105-261) after a special congressional committee determined that U.S. satellite manufacturers violated export control laws and assisted China in developing its missile technology by aiding in analysis of launch failures of Chinese rockets that were carrying U.S.-built satellites.   No U.S.-built satellites or satellites containing U.S. components have been exported to China for launch since that time. 

European companies began building satellites without U.S. components that are “ITAR-free” — not subject to the U.S. ITAR rules — and selling them to customers who do not want to deal with the U.S. export control system.  Today’s report states that the current U.S. export control regime “places the U.S. industrial base at a distinct competitive disadvantage when bidding against companies from other advanced satellite-exporting countries that have less stringent export control policies and practices.”

This report does not recommend changing how China is treated, however.  Appendix 4 of the report points out that an earlier law, P.L.  101-246, that was enacted after the 1989 Tiananmen Square uprising would remain in effect.  It prohibits launching U.S. satellites on Chinese rockets without a presidential waiver.   Such waivers were granted in the first half of the 1990s, which allowed U.S.-built satellites to be launched by China and led to the problems addressed by the 1999 law.  The so-called Tiananmen Square restrictions also prohibit export of items on the USML to China.   If this report’s recommendations are followed and hundreds of thousands of items are transferred from the USML to the CCL, that restriction might no longer apply.  However, the report calls for changes to the CCL, too.   It recommends prohibiting items on the CCL from being transferred to any “embargoed country,” a category that includes China, Syria, North Korea and others.

Some influential members of Congress remain adamantly opposed to allowing transfer of any satellite technology to China, so that recommendation may assuage those concerns.  The anti-China sentiment is quite strong with some Members, however, as illustrated by Rep. Frank Wolf’s (R-VA) long standing opposition to any U.S.-Chinese space cooperation.

SIA, a U.S.-based trade association for the commercial satellite industry, hailed the report.   SIA President Patricia Cooper said it represents “a more contemporary picture of the national security, space and satellite environments.”   She added that SIA and its members hope Congress will pass H.R. 3288, an export control reform bill sponsored by Rep. Howard Berman (D-CA) that contains provisions similar to what is recommended in the report.

Congressional action is needed because the FY1999 defense authorization act removed presidential authority to decide how to regulate satellite exports.  It requires that satellites, their components, associated technical data and related ground equipment be treated as munitions.    The report and the SIA both point out that the satellite industry is the only sector where Congress has mandated export policy by law.   “Space-related items, even if they have civilian applications, are the only dual-use items that are required by law to be controlled as defense articles,” the report states, while the President has the authority to determine which set of export regulations govern any other sector. 

Schulte said today he believes the approach recommended in the report will strengthen U.S. national security “by energizing the industrial base” and allowing U.S. companies to better compete globally.  He is hopeful that Congress will agree.   He and Lou Ann McFadden, Chief of the Strategic Issues Division at the Defense Technology Security Administration (DTSA), stressed that by removing these items from the USML, the government can focus on preventing the transfer of technologies that really could affect national security.

McFadden expressed frustration that DTSA is required by law to sit in on meetings with companies that over the past 15 years have demonstrated a “culture of compliance” with the current export control laws.  “We are frustrated that we have to be present at low risk activities when there are high risk activities we want to monitor,” she said.  “We’re forced to monitor the same people over and over on the same activities.”  Instead, she believes they should be focusing on helping new companies, for example, “get off on the right foot” in understanding and complying with export controls.

Discovery on Her Way to Washington, Due to Arrive Between 10:00 and 11:00

Discovery on Her Way to Washington, Due to Arrive Between 10:00 and 11:00

Space Shuttle Discovery just took off from Kennedy Space Center, FL aboard a shuttle carrier aircraft on its way to Dulles Airport, VA just outside Washington DC.

Atop the 747, Discovery is currently taking a victory lap along the Florida coastline.  It is expected to arrive in the DC area between 10:00 and 11:00 am.  NASA has a map of the best viewing sites as it flies over Washington landmarks like the National Mall.  They are:

District of Columbia

  • The National Mall, including Memorial Bridge, the Lincoln Memorial, the Washington Monument and the east end
  • Hains Point/East Potomac Park, south of the Jefferson Memorial and the 14th Street Bridge
  • Southwest Waterfront Park

Virginia

  • Long Bridge Park, 475 Long Bridge Drive, Arlington
  • Old Town Alexandria Waterfront
  • Gravelly Point, just off the George Washington Parkway, near National Airport

Maryland

  • National Harbor, just off the Woodrow Wilson Bridge in Prince George’s County

 

DOD Satellite Export Report Expected to be Released Tomorrow

DOD Satellite Export Report Expected to be Released Tomorrow

Expectations are high that a scheduled press conference tomorrow at the National Space Symposium (NSS) in Colorado Springs, CO presages the release of a long-awaited report from the Department of Defense (DOD) on whether the rules governing export of commercial communications satellites should change. 

The so-called “sec. 1248 report” is in response to congressional direction in section 1248 of the FY2010 defense authorization act for DOD to prepare a report on the national security implications of removing satellites and related components from the U.S. Munitions List.  An interim report released last year was widely criticized.  The final report is eagerly anticipated by Congress and the satellite industry.

According to the Space Foundation’s NSS website, from 12:00-12:30 pm MT (2:00-2:30 pm ET), two DOD officials will provide an update on export control reform.  The officials are Amb. Greg Schulte, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy, and Lou Ann McFadden, Chief, Strategic Issues Division, Defense Technology Security Administration.   The NSS website lists the following information for those who want to call in to listen to the press conference:  Call in: +1.866.330.1200 begin_of_the_skype_highlighting            +1.866.330.1200      end_of_the_skype_highlighting, passcode 5768000#

Export control reform in general is a priority of the Obama Administration to order to make U.S. companies more competitive in global markets.   Exports of commercial communications satellites are a special case, however.  During the early 1990s, they were moved from the strict regime of the Munitions List, overseen by the State Department, that guards exports of technology that could harm national security to the dual-use Commerce Control List administered by the Department of Commerce for technologies that have both military and civilian uses.  Items on the Munitions List are governed by the International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR).

In the late 1990s, a special congressional committee chaired by then-Rep. Christopher Cox found that U.S. satellite manufacturers violated export control laws and aided China in developing ballistic missile technology when they reviewed China’s failure analyses of why certain commercial communications satellite launches failed.  The report of the Cox Committee led Congress to pass a law that moved commercial communications satellites back to the Munitions List.  No U.S.-built satellites or satellites with U.S. components have been approved for export to China for launch since then.   European companies took advantage of this to build “ITAR-free” satellites that can be exported to China for launch.

U.S. satellite manufacturers argue that the technologies in commercial communications satellites are widely available and pose no risk to national security.  They want to be able to build satellites that their customers can launch on comparatively inexpensive Chinese rockets.  They hope that this DOD report with change the paradigm in which commercial communications satellites are considered.

Senate Approps to Markup NASA, NOAA Bill This Afternoon; House Approps on Thursday

Senate Approps to Markup NASA, NOAA Bill This Afternoon; House Approps on Thursday

As the Senate Appropriations Commerce-Justice-Science (CJS) subcommittee prepares to mark up the FY2013 bill that funds NASA and NOAA later this afternoon, its House counterpart will mark up its version of the bill on Thursday.

The Senate markup, scheduled to begin at 2:30 pm ET in 192 Dirksen, comes just hours after a spectacular flyover of the Nation’s capital by the space shuttle Discovery enroute to the Smithsonian’s Udvar-Hazy Center near Dulles Airport.   Senator Barbara Mikulski (D-MD), who chairs the Senate CJS subcommittee, tweeted as Discovery, atop a shuttle carrier aircraft, flew past the Capitol  that she is “Proud 2 support our space program & American ingenuity.”  Earlier she tweeted that though the space shuttle is retired “our mission in space will sail on, supporting discovery, innovation, American ingenuity & jobs.”    The ranking member of the subcommittee, Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX), tweeted “Sad to see Discovery retire as it flies over DC.  America needs a space program we can believe in again.  Human space flight is too important!”

The House CJS subcommittee will hold its markup at 9:30 am on Thursday, April 19, in H-140 Capitol.   No tweets about the space program from its chairman, Rep. Frank Wolf (R-VA), were evident, but ranking member Rep. Chaka Fattah (D-PA) tweeted that “America’s shuttle program and America’s leadership in space was not accomplished on the cheap.  A great nation must invest in science & tech.”

Senate CJS Appropriators Want to Transfer NOAA Satellites to NASA, Increase NASA Budget Accordingly

Senate CJS Appropriators Want to Transfer NOAA Satellites to NASA, Increase NASA Budget Accordingly

Senate Commerce-Justice-Science (CJS) subcommittee appropriators had a surprise for everyone when they marked up the FY2013 appropriations bill today.  They want to transfer NOAA’s satellite activities other than operations to NASA, increasing NASA’s budget accordingly.   NASA would get $19.4 billion for FY2013 compared to the $17.7 billion request.  NOAA would get $3.4 billion for FY2013, compared to the $5.1 billion requested.

CJS subcommittee chairwoman Barbara Mikulski (D-MD) complained that they had told NOAA, part of the Department of Commerce, “time and time and time again” that they need to “get their act together.”   The subcommittee is weary of cost overruns on NOAA satellite programs.  She particularly mentioned that the projected life-cycle cost for the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) went up $1 billion in the last year, from $11.9 billion to $12.9 billion.

Mary Kicza, head of NOAA’s National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) said at a FY2013 budget briefing in February that the $1 billion increase was due to lengthening by four years (from 2024 to 2028) the operational time frame for the system. 

Mikulski invoked what she called the Marine rule — be best at what you do best.  She and other subcommittee members clearly believe that NASA is better at building and launching satellites than NOAA.   In fact, NASA is already NOAA’s procurement agent for satellites.  NOAA sets the requirements and reimburses NASA for procuring and launching them.  NOAA then operates the satellites once they are in orbit.

If the subcommittee’s recommendation becomes law, NOAA would still operate the satellites, but NASA would in charge of everything else and the money would be in NASA’s budget.  Mikulski estimated that the government would save $100 million per year by having NASA manage the programs directly instead of through the current reimburseable arrangement.

As for NASA’s other programs, a summary provided by the committee and statements by Mikulski and ranking member Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) asserted that NASA is fully funded to pursue the balanced program laid out in the 2010 NASA authorization act.   Funds are provided for science, the Orion and Space Launch System programs for human spaceflight beyond low Earth orbit, and for a commercial crew capability to exist by 2017 to take crews to and from the International Space Station (ISS).   The following paragraph and bullet points are from the committee’s summary:

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is funded at $19.4 billion, an increase of $1.6 billion over the fiscal year 2012 enacted level. The large increase results from a reorganization of operational weather satellite procurement from NOAA into NASA. Without the funds for weather satellite procurement, this level represents a $41.5 million cut from the fiscal year 2012 enacted level.

  • The bill preserves a NASA portfolio balanced among science, aeronautics, technology and human space flight investments.
  • Funding for the development of the Orion Multipurpose Crew Vehicle is $1.2 billion, the same as fiscal year 2012. Heavy lift Space Launch System (SLS) development is funded at $1.5 billion, $21 million less than fiscal year 2012. The bill also provides $244 million for construction needed to build, test, and operate Orion and SLS. Commercial crew development is provided $525 million, an increase of $119 million above fiscal year 2012.
  • The bill provides $5 bilion for Science which is $69 billion less than fiscal year 2012.  Within Science, the bill restores $100 million of a proposed cut to robotic Mars science programs, resulting in a total of $461 million for Mars robotic science.

At the beginning of the markup, Miksulski asked her colleagues to refrain from introducing amendments because they will be considered during full committee markup, which she said would be on Thursday.  The time and location are not yet posted on the committee’s website. 

One place where Mikulski and Hutchison publicly disagreed was whether the funding for commercial crew supports only two competitors or more.   Hutchison said “our priority for NASA is to select two competitors” so the commercial crew program can be “robust” but also saves taypayers from funding more companies than necessary.  Mikulski rejoined that that was Hutchison’s view, not the subcommittee’s.   Mikulski said she did not know how many companies would be funded, maybe four (the number NASA is currently funding), but that she and Hutchison were in agreement that NASA needs a balanced program including Orion/SLS, commercial crew, and science.

Hutchison is retiring from the Senate this year and several Senators lauded her work over many years and noted this was her last subcommittee markup.  She will, however, remain a powerful presence in the Senate on NASA programs for the rest of this year.

Senate Subcommittee Adds $100 Million for Mars Missions, Cuts Commercial Crew

Senate Subcommittee Adds $100 Million for Mars Missions, Cuts Commercial Crew

The big news out of the Senate Commerce-Justice-Science (CJS) subcommittee today — the decision to transfer NOAA’s satellite programs to NASA (except for operations) — overshadowed other key recommendations.   Among them are an addition of $100 million for robotic Mars exploration and a cut of $305 million from commercial crew compared to the President’s request for FY2013.

The Obama Administration’s proposed 21 percent cut to NASA’s planetary exploration program, of which Mars exploration is part, has provoked outrage in the planetary science community and among its supporters.  Funding for planetary exploration would decrease from $1.5 billion in FY2012 to $1.2 billion in FY2013 with additional decreases in subsequent years.   Consequently, NASA had to withdraw from planned cooperation with the European Space Agency (ESA) on two Mars missions in 2016 and 2018.  It is now planning to launch a smaller mission in 2018 that is yet to be defined.  The $100 million added by the subcommittee presumably would be targeted to the new mission.  ESA has moved on to partner with Russia instead of the United States for the 2016 mission.

Separately, Congress and the Obama Administration have been sparring for the past three years over the President’s desire to use government funds to help companies develop crew space transportation systems to take people to and from low Earth orbit (LEO) instead of NASA building such a system.  Congress wants NASA to build a new big rocket (the Space Launch System) and a spacecraft (Orion) to go beyond LEO.  The compromise in the 2010 NASA Authorization Act was to do both, but Congress favors SLS/Orion while the Administration favors commercial crew.   Today, the United States cannot launch anyone into space.  NASA relies on Russia to take astronauts to and from the International Space Station.  The agency is facilitating companies like SpaceX to develop U.S. commercial crew transportation systems with the goal of purchasing services from them instead of Russia beginning in 2017.   Congress has allowed the Obama Administration to proceed with commercial crew, but with less funding than requested.  For FY2013, NASA is asking for $830 million and insists that much is needed to meet the 2017 date. 

The Senate subcommittee, however, is recommending $525 million.   Although it is $305 million less than the request, it is $25 million more than Congress provided in the 2010 NASA Authorization Act, which covers FY2011-2013.   From a congressional viewpoint, therefore, it is an increase even though it is a substantial decrease from what NASA says it needs.

A summary of the subcommittee’s action is posted on the committee’s website.   The decision to move NOAA’s satellite programs into NASA, along with the money for them, raises the total for NASA to $19.4 billion, a significant increase from the $17.71 billion requested.    The summary says that if the NOAA money was not transferred to NASA, the budget for NASA would be $41.5 million less than what was appropriated for FY2012.  NASA received $17.77 billion in FY2012 after an across-the-board cut is taken into account, so that would make the NASA total $17.73 billion.

The Senate subcommittee’s action is just the first step in the lengthy congressional process of providing funding for government agencies.   Senator Mikulski, chair of the Senate CJS subcommittee, said today that the full Senate Appropriations Committee would markup the bill on Thursday, but it has not yet been announced on the committee’s website.   The House CJS appropriations subcommittee will markup its version of the bill on Thursday morning at 9:30 am.

NASA Flight Readiness Review for SpaceX Mission Underway-UPDATE

NASA Flight Readiness Review for SpaceX Mission Underway-UPDATE

UPDATE:  Bob Jacobs at NASA tweets that the press conference will be held about 3:30 pm ET.

NASA’s Flight Readiness Review (FRR) for the upcoming SpaceX mission to the International Space Station is now underway.  You can follow the action via NASA’s Twitter account using the hashtag #FRR.

NASA plans a press conference this afternoon after the FRR is completed.   The time is TBD, depending on when the FRR concludes.   Follow NASA on Twitter to keep track of what time it will take place.  It will be aired on NASA TV.

SpaceX Demo Flight to ISS Still on for April 30 But Expectations Need to be Dampened

SpaceX Demo Flight to ISS Still on for April 30 But Expectations Need to be Dampened

Dampening expectations for a complete success was a major theme of today’s NASA press conference following the Flight Readiness Review (FRR) for the SpaceX demonstration flight to the International Space Station (ISS).  The launch date for the mission remains targeted for April 30.

NASA Associate Administrator for Human Exploration and Operations Bill Gerstenmaier cautioned, however, that some tests remain to be be completed before a final decision is made and the mission is very challenging.

SpaceX will be conducting those tests, primarily related to software, and reporting back to NASA by April 23.  NASA does not expect to perform another FRR at that time, but will consider the results before formally committing to the launch date.   If it does not go on April 30, May 3 would be the next opportunity.

SpaceX succeeded in convincing NASA to combine the last two of its ISS demonstration flights, so this mission, dubbed C2+, is especially difficult.  The company launched its first demonstration flight, C1, of the Falcon 9 rocket coupled with the Dragon spacecraft in December 2010.  It was supposed to launch two more test flights, C2 and C3, but this flight combines the objectives of both, hence the C2+ designation.  It will be only the third flight of Falcon 9 and the second flight of Dragon.   SpaceX founder Elon Musk sounded optimistic about the performance of those two components of his space transportation system, but stressed that other aspects of the mission are firsts — such as rendezvous and berthing with the ISS, and the solar arrays for Dragon.    “We’ve got a pretty good shot,” he said, “but there’s a lot that can go wrong on a mission like this.”

Musk noted that SpaceX hopes to launch two more missions to the ISS this year and if berthing is not successful this time it will try again.   Gerstenmaier made clear that these commercial cargo missions are “critical” for ISS operations.  Dragon, in particular, is the only cargo spacecraft capable of returning materials to Earth.   Russia’s Progress, Europe’s ATV and Japan’s HTV spacecraft are not designed to survive reentry and burn up in the atmosphere.   Dragon is designed for a survivable water landing, which was demonstrated during the December 2010 mission.

These cargo flights do not carry anyone aboard, but SpaceX hopes to evolve Dragon into a vehicle capable of carrying crew.   When pressed today, Musk ventured that a flight with a crew might be possible in about three years if this demonstration flight succeeds. 

Following the termination of the space shuttle program last year, NASA has no way to launch cargo or crew to the ISS.  It is completely dependent on Russia to take people to and from the ISS, and Russia, Europe and Japan for cargo transport.

This mission will take 521 kilograms of cargo to the ISS, primarily crew provisions including food, as well as one Nanorack with student experiments, and some replacement parts.   It will return 660 kilograms of material to Earth, landing in the ocean off the California coast after 18 days berthed with the ISS.   Decisions are not final on what will be returned.

Musk said he did not know how much SpaceX has spent on this commercial cargo vehicle specifically, but said the company has spent a total of about $1 billion over the course of its history.   NASA provided $381 million of that, while Musk and other investors provided the rest.  NASA said it owes SpaceX another $15 million when it achieves the remaining three milestones under the Space Act Agreement through which NASA is facilitating SpaceX’s development of the transportation system.   Alan Lindenmoyer, NASA’s manager of commercial crew and cargo at Johnson Space Center, replied to a question by saying that studies have concluded that it would have cost NASA four to ten times more to develop this capability under conventional contracting methods.

Between now and April 23, the company will continue tests to make certain that its hardware and software interact correctly under various circumstances.   Musk stressed that Dragon is autonomous — no one is aboard with a joystick to make decisions.   It is all done by software.  “Dragon is making a lot of decisions all the time,” he said.   In the past month, he continued, the biggest problem is “false aborts” when Dragon gets “worried” about something and aborts the mission when it is not necessary.