Anyone interested in the future of National Research Council (NRC) Decadal Surveys may want to tune in to the webcast of a workshop being held next week that will discuss how those highly influential studies could be improved.

The workshop, sponsored by the NRC’s Space Studies Board, will be held on Monday and Tuesday at the NRC’s Beckman Center in Irvine, CA.  The meeting is open to the public, but to expand its reach, the NRC also will webcast it.  The webcast can be viewed at http://gracefulcreationsmedia.com/events/201211_Beckman.html.

Decadal Surveys are one of the most preeminent products of the NRC.   Conducted about every 10 years (a decade) to prioritize the most important scientific questions to try and answer over the next 10 years, Decadal Surveys have been around since the 1960s when the first was performed for the field of astronomy and astrophysics.

Decadal Survey study committees bring together the top scientists and engineers in a particular scientific discipline who, over an approximately two-year period, use a consensus-based approach to identify the key science questions and mission concepts to find answers.   For NASA, the NRC now performs Decadal Surveys for five science disciplines:   astronomy and astrophysics, planetary science, solar and space physics (heliophysics), earth science and applications from space, and biological and physical sciences in space.  The first four are for NASA’s Science Mission Directorate (NASA/SMD); the last is for the Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate.

The NRC has just completed the most recent set of NASA-related science Decadal Surveys, which were published between 2007 and 2012.  Changes in how the studies are conducted were introduced during that period, perhaps most notably after Congress required in the 2008 NASA Authorization Act that they include independent cost estimates of recommended missions.  Previously, the NRC relied on estimates from NASA or project teams that often turned out to be far too low.

Even with independent cost estimates, however, NASA is struggling to implement the missions recommended by several of the most recent Decadal Surveys because budgets are much more constrained than expected.   NASA provides each Decadal Survey committee with an estimate of how much money the agency will have to spend on that discipline over the next 10 years, which guides the committee when making its mission recommendations.   For astronomy and astrophysics, and planetary science, however, the actual budgets have turned out to be much smaller either because of overruns on existing missions (e.g. the James Webb Space Telescope) or changing national priorities.

The NRC will look at lessons learned from the recent Decadal Surveys to avoid such pitfalls in future studies.  Among other things, the NRC wants to ensure that the time of the hundreds of scientists and engineers who volunteer to serve on the committees is not wasted and that NASA has a sound set of missions to pursue.  By law, the NRC must also conduct “mid-term reviews” of each Decadal Survey half way through the decade covered by the report.  The workshop will discuss how the mid-term reviews also might be improved.

As the agenda shows, the two-day workshop brings together scientists and engineers who led current and past Decadal Surveys that were conducted for NASA/SMD, NASA and other government officials who implement them, and members of the relevant scientific communities who serve on these committees and whose careers are heavily influenced by their recommendations.

Although a few House contests remain too close to call, the Presidency and now all of the Senate races have been decided.  The last hold out for the Senate was the race in North Dakota, but the Republican candidate has finally conceded.

It was not that long ago that pundits were predicting that Democrats might lose control of the Senate.   More recently, conventional wisdom was that they might retain a razor-thin edge, but at the end of the day they actually picked up two seats.   In the upcoming 113th Congress, the Senate will have 53 Democrats, 45 Republicans and 2 Independents.   One of the independents, Bernie Sanders (VT), already caucuses with the Democrats and his new Independent colleague — Angus King (ME) — is expected to, although he has not made that statement yet.

If he does, that gives Democrats essentially a 55-45 lead.   Currently, there are 51 Democrats, 47 Republicans, and 2 Independents (one of whom, Joe Lieberman (CT), is retiring this year).

The Democratic gains in the Senate have surprised just about everyone.   Washington political observers are busy analyzing why it happened.   In North Dakota, the incumbent (Kent Conrad-D) retired, so it was an open race between Heidi Heitkamp (D) and Rick Berg (R).   The race was close, with Heitkamp getting 50.5 percent versus Berg’s 49.5 percent and a recount was a possibility, but Berg conceded earlier today.  Mitt Romney won the presidential contest in North Dakota by 20 points (58.7 percent to Obama’s 38.9 percent), but political observers pointed to Heitkamp’s positioning herself as a moderate who distanced herself from President Obama’s energy policies as a factor in her success.

Heitkamp will be the first woman Senator from North Dakota, part of a record number of women — 20 — who will serve in the Senate beginning in January.

In the House, Politco shows the breakdown in the 113th Congress will be 233 Republicans and 193 Democrats, but it also shows that the Democrats gained 7 seats and the Republicans lost 2.  The composition today is 242 Republicans and 193 Democrats, so that math does not work.  Some races are still too close to call, but it is clear the Republicans remain in the majority.

What all of this means for governance of the nation remains to be seen.  At a top level, it is the status quo — Democrats control the White House and Senate, while Republicans control the House.   But the Democratic margin in the Senate is greater, and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) already announced today that he will pursue filibuster reform in the next Congress, saying that he thinks the rules have been “abused” and will try to change them “so we can get things done.”  

Across Capitol Hill, House Speaker John Boehner said today that House Republicans are “willing to accept new revenue, under the right conditions” in order to get bipartisan agreement on solving the nation’s financial woes.  For the past two years, House Republicans have been unwilling to accept any revenue increases as part of a deficit reduction deal.

It is far too early to forecast how all of this will play out in the lame duck session of the 112th Congress much less the 113th Congress.    There are no magic solutions, and the devil is always in the details when crafting political compromises.

In not unexpected news, several media outlets are reporting that Republicans will, in fact, retain control of the House.

Conventional wisdom in the last couple of weeks has been that Republicans would keep control of the House and Democrats would keep control of the Senate, with the White House up for grabs.   At this point in election day counting, that wisdom is holding for the House.  As for the Senate and White House, many states are still too close to count, although Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL) reportedly has won reelection.

Pundits are asking whether House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi will remain in her leadership position with the House remaining in Republican hands.   While an interesting political issue, it has little effect on space policy. 

From a space policy standpoint, the question is who will chair the House Science, Space and Technology Committee, which oversees space policy.   Rep. Ralph Hall (R-TX) has reached a term limit on that position, and while a waiver is always possible, it seems more likely that the post will go to one of three contenders — Rep. Lamar Smith (R-TX), Rep. James Sensenbrenner (R-WI), or Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA).   All are expected to win their contests for reelection, leaving the decision to the House Republican Caucus.

As space shuttle orbiter Atlantis moves from Kennedy Space Center (KSC) to the KSC Visitor Complex this morning, NASA is emphasizing that the end of the shuttle program does not mean the end of NASA’s human spaceflight efforts.

Bill Hill, NASA assistant deputy associate administrator for Exploration Systems Development at NASA Headquarters said at a KSC press conference yesterday that “Human spaceflight is not dead….We’re flying every day.”   Hill recapped activities at the International Space Station — where NASA astronaut Suni Williams and Japanese astronaut Aki Hoshide successfully completed a spacewalk yesterday — and ongoing development of the Space Launch System and Orion spacecraft.

Ed Mango, manager of NASA’s commercial crew program, added an update on the status of the Commercial Crew Integrated Capability Program (CCiCAP), heralding the fact that all three of the CCiCAP partners plan to launch from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, adjacent to KSC, and some may build their vehicles on Florida’s Space Coast.  Boeing, he said, already is planning to build its spacecraft there.  

KSC Director Bob Cabana stressed the efforts currently underway to reinvent KSC as a “multiuser spaceport of the future” that will serve both government and commercial clients.  A former shuttle astronaut, Cabana acknowledged that he feels bittersweet about the end of the shuttle program, but proud of what was accomplished.  Saying that the departure of the orbiters to their display locations was “more emotional than I thought,” he added that he felt “great pride in what this team did.”

Atlantis began its trip to the KSC Visitor Complex at 6:30 am ET.   It is stopping at various points along the path for photo opportunities and is expected to arrive at KSC’s industrial area at about 9:45 am where Cabana, NASA Administrator Charlie Bolden and other former astronauts will speak at a “retirement ceremony” for the orbiter.  Bolden also is a former shuttle astronaut, and commanded Atlantis in 1992 on the STS-45 mission, a Spacelab mission devote to earth science,

This final journey for Atlantis lacks the grandeur and drama of the other orbiters — Discovery, Enterprise (which never flew in space), and Endeavour — that have been placed on public display around the country.   They reached their destinations atop the 747 Shuttle Carrier Aircraft after making fly-arounds of Washington, DC, New York City, and Los Angeles, CA, respectively, witnessed by many thousands of people.   Atlantis is moving just a short 10 miles from KSC to the Visitor’s Center aboard a flatbed vehicle flanked mostly by “family” — the people who tended her over the past two-and-a-half decades.   Atlantis’s first flight was in 1985; her last flight was the final flight of the space shuttle program, STS-135 in July 2011.

Two space shuttle orbiters — Challenger and Columbia — were destroyed in accidents that took the lives of their crews.   Challenger exploded 73 seconds after launch in 1986 due to a failed O-ring in one of the solid rocket boosters.  Columbia disintegrated during return to Earth in 2003 when superheated plasma entered the orbiter’s wing through a hole created during launch when a piece of foam from the shuttle’s External Tank struck the wing.

Those were the only two failures in 135 launches over 30 years, but the loss of those 14 lives — seven on each mission — indelibly affected the human spaceflight program both in terms of space system design and space policy. 

Although the final space shuttle mission landed more than a year ago, today may well be cited as the “real” end of the program as NASA turned over the last space shuttle orbiter, Atlantis, to its new owner. Meanwhile, Rep. Bill Posey (R-FL), criticized the Obama Administration’s space policy.

Atlantis is now the property of Delaware North Companies Parks & Resorts, which owns and operates the Kennedy Space Center Visitor Complex. The orbiter will be on permanent display at the Visitor Complex although the exhibit is not completed yet.  It is set to open in July 2013.

Speaking at a ceremony where the papers were signed transferring ownership from NASA to Delaware North, NASA Administrator Charlie Bolden kept a focus on the future. While agreeing that today is a historic day, Bolden said “I don’t preside over an agency that’s in the history business. … We’re in the business of creating the future. … We take things that people say are impossible and we make them possible. We dazzle people.” Acknowledging that change is difficult, he stressed that “sometime you have to say we did great things and now we’re on to greater things.”

Bolden went on to discuss the Obama Administration’s plans for human spaceflight — commercial cargo, commercial crew and human trips to an asteroid and Mars. His comments paralleled those made yesterday by NASA’s Bill Hill that the U.S. human spaceflight program is not dead just because the shuttle orbiters are now in museums.

Yesterday, Rep. Bill Posey (R-FL), who represents Florida’s Space Coast, criticized the Obama Adminstration’s space policy during an interview with radio station WMFE, particularly Obama’s cancellation of the Constellation program. Posey went on to explain his support of the Space Leadership Act (H.R. 6491), which he co-sponsored, and advocated a human return to the Moon no later than 2022. Posey said the Romney/Ryan team recognizes “that NASA has long been asked to do too much with too little” and needs clearer goals, not more money. NASA should focus on space and not climate change, for example, he said.

Also yesterday, the Orlando Sentinel praised the Obama Administration for “the smart decision to privatize the job of carrying cargo — and in a few years, astronauts — to low Earth orbit so that NASA can focus its limited resources on deep-space exploration.” The Sentinel has endorsed Mitt Romney for President this year, changing its stance from 2008 when it supported Obama.

The decision to privatize cargo delivery to the International Space Station (ISS) actually was made during the George W. Bush Administration. Commercial crew was also envisioned at that time, although the Obama Administration took the idea and ran with it, making it a central tenet of its civil space policy.