Category: Civil

Will NASA Safety Panel Assess Technical Risks of ISS Extension?

Will NASA Safety Panel Assess Technical Risks of ISS Extension?

A SpacePolicyOnline.com Editorial

NASA’s Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel (ASAP) waded into the issue of whether the International Space Station (ISS) should be extended beyond its current 2020 deadline in its annual report issued last week.   Its questions were based on a benefit-cost rationale of whether the activities conducted aboard ISS are worth the risk to the lives of the crews that inhabit the station.   More fundamentally, however, it did not ask about the structural health of the multi-module facility for years longer than planned.

NASA announced on January 8 that it wants to extend the lifetime of the ISS to 2024, four years more than the current plan, and it has long suggested extending it to 2028 – 30 years beyond when the first modules were launched.

The ASAP report reflects work conducted in 2013 before the announcement was made, but the panel noted that NASA was considering an extension and cautioned that such a decision needed to assess the benefits against the costs and safety risks.

“As NASA assesses ISS life extension, it should also review the objectives for continued ISS use and clearly articulate them to ensure that the costs and safety risks are balanced.  Given that human space flight is inherently risky, that risk always needs to be weighed against the value to be gained by the endeavor.”

Absent from the report is any mention of concern about the structural integrity of the facility as it endures the harsh space environment.   The oldest of the ISS modules – Zarya and Unity – are already 15 years old.

In the 2010 NASA Authorization Act, Congress approved extending the ISS to 2020, five years longer than the then-expected end date of 2015.   The Government Accountability Office (GAO) reviewed NASA’s processes for determining the space station’s structural health, among other topics, in a December 2011 report and found that the agency was “using reasonable analytical tools.” That report looked only at the extension of ISS to 2020, however, not for a longer period of time as now planned.

The ASAP did express concerns about safety risks with the commercial crew program, especially whether NASA still considers crew safety to be a key determinant in developing new crew spaceflight systems. That part of its report received substantial attention.  An op-ed by former astronaut Vance Brand in this week’s Space News drove home that point.

Similar questions might be asked about the ISS extension.   The announcement of the four-year extension, however, prompted concerns centered primarily on whether it was affordable, not whether the facility is technically viable.  Perhaps a more important question is whether enough is known about how the structure of the ISS modules and other equipment – American, Russian, European, Japanese and Canadian – can hold up under another four years or more of radiation, micrometeorite hits, and other environmental factors.

Like the Hubble Space Telescope, one advantage of the ISS is that it can be repaired.  NASA and its partners have a strategy for assessing when parts must be replaced and equipped ISS with an array of spare parts while the space shuttle was still flying.  Still, few spacecraft have orbited the Earth for 20 years or more in operational status and no others have needed to sustain human life.  Russia’s Mir space station is the closest analog.  Its core module survived 15 years in space (1986-2001) before the entire facility was deorbited into the Pacific Ocean.

Officials from NASA and the Russian space agency, Roscosmos, convey a “can-do” attitude that extending ISS is not a problem.  An independent assessment – independent of NASA, Boeing (the ISS prime contractor), and Roscosmos – could go a long way in allaying concerns that that estimation is being made by organizations that want the answer to be yes so fervently that they may unintentionally overlook less optimistic indicators.

ASAP will hold its first meeting of 2014 tomorrow at Johnson Space Center.  Perhaps that is a place to start, although it could easily be argued that a group even more distant from NASA, akin to an accident investigation board, would be more likely to detect not only technical but cultural factors that might be leading to a premature determination that the ISS can last until 2024 or even longer —  “no problem.”

Marcia Smith, Editor

Laurie Leshin Named President of Worcester Polytechnic Institute

Laurie Leshin Named President of Worcester Polytechnic Institute

Laurie Leshin, who left NASA in 2011 for Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI), has been selected as the new President of Worcester Polytechnic Institute (WPI) in Worcester, MA.  She will be WPI’s 16th president and the first woman to hold that position in the university’s 150 year history.

Leshin was Director of the Center for Meteorite Studies and the Dee and John Whiteman Distinguished Professor of Geological Sciences at Arizona State University before joining NASA. She was a member of the Aldridge Commission established by President George W. Bush after his announcement of the Vision for Space Exploration in January 2004. The Commission, chaired by former Secretary of the Air Force Edward “Pete” Aldridge, issued the report “A Journey to Inspire, Innovate and Discover.”

Laurie Leshin.   Photo credit:  WPI website

She was named Deputy Director for Science and Exploration at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center in 2005, and moved to NASA headquarters in 2010 as Deputy Director of the Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD), which was later incorporated into the Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate.   She left NASA in 2011 to become Dean of the School of Science at RPI.

WPI made the announcement today.  Leshin reports for duty on July 1, the beginning of the university’s academic year, which in this case is also its sesquicentennial (150th) year.

Space Policy Events for January 20-24, 2014

Space Policy Events for January 20-24, 2014

The following space policy events may be of interest in the week ahead.  The House and Senate are in recess this week.

During the Week

This week is a welcome break from the hustle and bustle that greeted the New Year. 

After an exceptionally busy start to the second session of the 113th Congress, the House and Senate are in recess (Monday is a federal holiday — Martin Luther King day), having passed the appropriations bill that funds the government for rest of the fiscal year.  The frenetic pace in Congress was matched by major American Astronomical Society (AAS) and American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA) conferences just outside Washington at National Harbor, MD during the past two weeks, plus the State Department-led International Space Exploration Forum and the International Academy of Astronautics’ (IAA’s) Space Exploration Conference and Heads of Agencies meetings.   Not to mention several significant launches.   It’s been quite a busy couple of weeks!

This week signals a return to a more normal pace.  Here are the meetings we know about as of Sunday afternoon.

Wednesday, January 22

Wednesday-Thursday, January 22-23

Thursday, January 23

U.S. and Chinese Academies of Sciences Create Forum for Space Science Interchanges

U.S. and Chinese Academies of Sciences Create Forum for Space Science Interchanges

The U.S. National Academy of Sciences (NAS) and the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) will hold two meetings in 2014 as part of the first CAS-NAS Forum for New Leaders in Space Science.  The first will be in Beijing from May 8-9 and the second from November 3-4 in the Los Angeles area.

The forum “is designed to provide opportunities for a highly select group of young space scientists from China and the United States to discuss their research activities in an intimate and collegial environment,” according to an announcement on the Space Studies Board (SSB) website.  The SSB is part of the National Research Council, which along with the National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering and Institute of Medicine comprise The National Academies.  SSB’s counterpart for the forum is the National Space Science Center (NSSC) of the CAS.

Participants in the two meetings will be selected from applicants who had to meet a number of criteria, including being no more than 40 years old on December 31, 2014.  The application period is closed.  Selections will be made by the end of  February.

Language in the newly enacted FY2014 Consolidated Appropriations Act (colloquially referred to “the omnibus”) continues prohibitions on NASA and the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy with regard to discussing or engaging in bilateral space cooperation with China unless certain criteria are met.  Those restrictions do not affect other government or non-government organizations, however.  (NAS is a non-government entity.)

The three-fold purpose of the CAS-NAS forum, according to the SSB’s website, is —

  • to identify and highlight research achievements of the best and brightest young scientists currently working at the frontiers of their scientific disciplines;
  • to build informal bridges between the space science communities in China and the United States; and
  • to enhance the diffusion of insights gained from participation in the Forum to the larger space-science communities in China and the United States.

NOAA Search and Rescue System Saves 253 People Throughout U.S. in 2013

NOAA Search and Rescue System Saves 253 People Throughout U.S. in 2013

NOAA weather satellites, in addition to providing weather data, carry transponders as part of the international Cospas-Sarsat search and rescue system to locate people in distress.   In 2013, 253 people throughout the United States and in surrounding waters were rescued.

NOAA reports that 139 people were rescued from marine emergencies, 34 from aviation incidents, and 80 from land-based events.

Cospas-Sarsat started as a joint effort among the Soviet Union, United States, France and Canada in the 1980s, using transponders on polar-orbiting spacecraft (U.S. weather satellites and Soviet navigation satellites).  Today, it involves 41 countries and two independent organizations.  Since 1982, more than 35,000 people worldwide have been rescued using the system, of which 7.252 were in the United States.

Aircraft, marine vessels and individuals can be equipped with devices that broadcast an emergency signal when activated manually or, in some cases, automatically.  The signal is detected by polar orbiting satellites equipped with Cospas-Sarsat transponders that alert control centers in various countries.  NOAA operates the control center for the United States in Suitland, MD.

Cospas is the Russian acronym for Space System for Search of Vessels in Distress.  Sarsat is the English acronym for Search and Rescue Satellite Aided Tracking.  More information is on NOAA’s Cospas-Sarsat website.

Omnibus Appropriatons Bill Clears Congress, Also Extends Third Party Indemnification

Omnibus Appropriatons Bill Clears Congress, Also Extends Third Party Indemnification

Exceeding expectations, the Senate joined the House in passing the FY2014 Omnibus Appropriations bill today.  The next stop is the White House and the President is expected to sign it.  In addition to funding the government for the rest of FY2014, it extends launch liability indemnification for three more years.

The House and Senate earlier passed a three-day extension to the Continuing Resolution (CR) to keep the government operating through Saturday with the expectation that it would take that long for the Senate to pass the Omnibus.  The House passed the Omnibus yesterday (359-67) and sent it to the Senate where action proceeded more quickly than expected.  It passed with a vote of 72-26.

The bill (H.R. 3547 as amended) also extends the FAA’s authority to indemnify commercial launch services companies from certain amounts of liability from third party claims in the event of a launch accident.  In fact, H.R. 3547 originally was the bill that passed the House to extend indemnification for one year.   The Senate amended that bill to extend indemnification for three years instead and sent it back to the House.  There, it was used as the legislative vehicle (a term used to describe a bill originally intended for one purpose, but amended to address different and/or additional issues) for the Omnibus.   In this case, extending indemnification was incorporated into the bill, adopting the Senate position of a 3-year extension — through December 31, 2016.

The bill is commonly called “the Omnibus,” but officially its title is the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2014.  It provides a total of $1.012 trillion for discretionary (defense and non-defense) spending in FY2014.

NASA fared pretty well all things considered, receiving $17.65 billion compared to its $17.72 billion request, although the devil is in the details and some programs did better than others.  Congress did not approve the Obama Administration’s proposed reorganization of government STEM education programs, which would have had a significant impact on NASA’s education and public outreach activities, and said NASA had more work to do before Congress would agree to the Asteroid Redirect Mission.

Most satellite programs at NOAA also fared well, except for Jason-3 and Polar Free Flyer.

Congress Resolves Three Space-Related Issues in First 10 Days

Congress Resolves Three Space-Related Issues in First 10 Days

The second session of the 103rd Congress settled three space-related issues in its first 10 days.  The one with the most impact is passage of the Omnibus Appropriations bill funding space programs for the rest of FY2014.  It also extended third party liability indemnification for commercial space launch companies and renamed the Dryden Flight Research Center after Neil Armstrong.

As we reported earlier, Congress has a plate full of space policy issues this year.   Resolving one major and two more narrowly-focused issues in 10 days isn’t bad. Here’s the list:

Of course, that still leaves plenty of items on the space policy “to do” list and now that the FY2014 appropriations are completed, it’s time to start work on FY2015.  The President is supposed to submit his budget request on the first Monday of February each year, but rumors are it will be delayed because Congress did not reach agreement on the Bipartisan Budget Act — which sets limits on total government spending for FY2014 and FY2015 — until late December.

The second session officially began on January 6, 2014.

Congress Says No to STEM Reorganization, Not Yet to Asteroid Mission

Congress Says No to STEM Reorganization, Not Yet to Asteroid Mission

As part of its action on the FY2014 Omnibus Appropriations bill, the House and Senate appropriations committees rejected the Obama Administration’s controversial reorganization plan for STEM education funding and said it would take a lot more work by NASA before they decide on the fate of the President’s proposed Asteroid Redirect Mission (ARM).

Both initiatives, though substantively unrelated to each other, share the distinction of coming as a surprise to Congress early last year. 

The Administration’s plan to reorganize how the government manages programs to promote Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) education affected many more agencies than NASA, but the NASA community was the most vocal in its opposition.   At the top level, the plan, developed over several years by the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) and its National Science and Technology Council, sought to consolidate activities funded by 13 agencies into three agencies:  the Department of Education for K-12 programs, the National Science Foundation for college and university programs, and the Smithsonian Institution for informal education.

NASA funds a significant amount of STEM education activities not only through its Office of Education, but by funding that, under NASA policy, is set aside in each of NASA’s science programs (1 percent of each program’s budget).  Scientists associated with NASA’s science programs were flabbergasted that the money would be sent to the Department of Education, which had no expertise and reportedly only one person assigned to STEM education, or transferred to NASA’s own Office of Education and they would have to compete to obtain it to support their program-related activities.

The report accompanying the Omnibus Appropriations bill released last night makes clear that although Congress appreciates efforts to make STEM programs more efficient and effective, this is not the plan:  “The proposal contained no clearly defined implementation plan, had no buy-in from the education community and failed to sufficiently recognize or support a number of proven, successful programs.  Accordingly, the agreement [on the Omnibus] does not adopt the reorganization.”  The issue is not dead, however.  The language in the OSTP portion of the Commerce-Justice-Science (CJS) section of the report directs OSTP to try again, this time using an “inclusive development process,” and Congress will reconsider that future proposal.  No time is suggested for when that might be.

The Asteroid Redirect Mission (ARM) similarly received underwhelming support in the Omnibus bill.  The Obama Administration proposed ARM last year as a variation of its 2010 directive that NASA’s next step in human spaceflight be a mission to an asteroid.   In the ARM concept, rather than sending astronauts on a several month journey into deep space to rendezvous with an asteroid, a robotic spacecraft would fly to an asteroid already headed in Earth’s direction and nudge it into a lunar orbit.  The astronauts then would be sent to study the asteroid in lunar orbit, a much shorter trip and within the capabilities of the early versions of the Space Launch System (SLS) and Orion spacecraft.

The idea failed to win support in Congress or with NASA”s international partners.  A Global Exploration Roadmap produced by the United States and 11 other countries as part of the International Space Exploration Coordination Group (ISECG) made clear that all the other countries remain focused on sending astronauts to the Moon as the next “beyond low Earth orbit” destination.  Only the United States champions the ARM mission.

For its part, the House Science, Space and Technology Committee reported out its version of a 2013 NASA Authorization Act that prohibits spending any funds on ARM.  The bill cleared committee on a party line vote and has not advanced further, but a Democratic alternative offered by Rep. Donna Edwards did not endorse ARM either.  That bill, and two bills in the Democratically-controlled Senate (the Senate Commerce Committee’s version of the 2013 NASA authorization act, and the Senate Appropriations Committee’s report on the FY2014 CJS appropriations bill), were silent on the proposal, as though it did not exist.   The House Appropriations CJS bill said that the idea needed more thought and agreed studies could be conducted, therefore neither approving nor prohibiting it.

The CJS portion of the FY2014 Omnibus Appropriations bill, which reflects a compromise between the House and Senate CJS subcommittees, essentially adopts the House position, saying neither no nor yes, but that more work is needed before they’ll sign on.  “While ARM is still an emerging concept, NASA has not provided Congress with satisfactory justification materials such as detailed cost estimates or impacts to ongoing missions.  The completion of significant preliminary activities is needed to appropriately lay the groundwork for the ARM prior to NASA and Congress making a long term commitment to this mission concept.”

JPSS and GOES-R Fare Well in FY2014 Omnibus, But Not All NOAA Satellite Programs

JPSS and GOES-R Fare Well in FY2014 Omnibus, But Not All NOAA Satellite Programs

Most NOAA satellite programs fared pretty well in the FY2014 Omnibus Appropriations bill released yesterday by House and Senate appropriators, but two weren’t so lucky — Jason-3 and Polar Free Flyer.

NOAA’s two main weather satellite programs — Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R series (GOES-R) and Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) received their full requests of.$954.8 million and $824 million respectively.   The report on the bill noted the warning issued by an Independent Review Team (IRT) headed by Tom Young that favorably reviewed NOAA’s response to earlier recommendations on how to fix the GOES-R and JPSS programs, but raised warning flags about the future.  The Young report warned that JPSS is fragile and needs to be made more robust, and that a gap in JPSS data in the latter part of this decade is a strong possibility.  Appropriators directed NOAA to present a strategy on how to deal with those issues along with its FY2015 budget request: “Such a strategy shall examine the proposed polar free flyer mission, which the [Omnibus] agreement does not fund due to fiscal constraints.”

GOES-R and JPSS are follow-ons to the existing GOES-N and Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellite (POES) series, which are funded slightly under their requested levels.. 

NOAA has several other satellite programs as well:  Jason-3 for ocean altimetry (joint with Europe); DSCOVR for space weather (joint with NASA and the Air Force); COSMIC 2, a proposed constellation of small satellites using GPS radio occultation for atmospheric and ionospheric observations (joint with Taiwan, NASA and the Air Force); and a Polar Free Flyer that originally was part of the JPSS program.

The House Appropriations Committee recommended zero funding for these programs when it marked up the CJS bill earlier this year, saying only that they were focusing scare resources on GOES-R and JPSS.  The Senate Appropriations Committee recommended the full request of $37 million for Jason-3, the full $23.7 million for DSCOVR, $24.6 million instead of the $62 million requested for the Polar Free Flyer, and an addition of $4 million for COSMIC-2, for which NOAA requested no funding in FY2014.

In the final compromise reflected in the Omnibus Appropriations bill,  DSCOVR is funded at its requested level of $23.7 million and COSMIC-2 received $2 million. 

Jason-3 was one of the two NOAA satellite programs that did not fare well.   It received $18.5 million, essentially half of its request, a middle ground between the two committees and essentially level-funded with FY2013.   Jason-3 is a joint mission between NOAA, Europe’s EUMETSAT organization, and the French space agency CNES.  CNES and Eumetsat are providing the spacecraft, altimeter, precision orbit components, ground system and operations.   NOAA is providing other instruments and launch (acquired through NASA).  NOAA said in its budget request that the increase was needed “to meet its international obligation for this mission and reduce the strain on the international partnership.”   The first two Jason spacecraft were research satellites funded jointly by NASA and CNES.  Jason-1 was itself a follow-on to the NASA-CNES Topex-Poseidon mission launched in 1992.

Still, Jason-3 fared better than the Polar Free Flyer, which received no funding in the Omnibus, with the Senate yielding to the House position.  No explanation was provided other than fiscal constraints.   NOAA separated the Polar Free Flyer from the rest of JPSS to reduce program costs.  The agency was heavily criticized for cost growth in JPSS especially after the problems encountered with its predecessor program the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS).  As cost estimates for JPSS grew, Congress became concerned that it was headed into the same thicket.   NOAA’s response was to restructure the program so not all program costs now are in the JPSS budget line and to shift responsibility for some of the sensors to NASA.  While that reduced the cost for what is now designated as JPSS, it did not reduce the cost for the capabilities needed.  The question now is how to get the money for the Polar Free Flyer, not to mention other capabilities strongly recommended by Tom Young’s IRT.  As the report accompanying the Omnibus states, it wants NOAA to present a strategy to deal with these issues as part of its FY2015 budget request.

Appropriators Release FY2014 Omnibus Bill, NASA Does Well

Appropriators Release FY2014 Omnibus Bill, NASA Does Well

It may not be the full enchilada, but NASA did pretty well all things considered in the proposed FY2014 omnibus appropriations bill released tonight (January 13).

Assuming approval by the House, Senate and President, NASA will get $17.6 billion for FY2014, not that much less than its $17.7 billion request.  Under some scenarios, NASA could have gotten as little as $16.1 billion, so this is a tremendous improvement.  A quick look through the bill shows that the agency would receive:

  • $4,113 million for exploration, of which
    • $696 million is for commercial crew, with $171 million available only after the Administrator certifies that the program has undergone an independent benefit-cost analysis
    • $1,197 million is for Orion
    • $1,918 million is for Space Launch System (SLS) of which $1,600 million is for launch vehicle development and $318 million is for exploration ground systems
    • $302 million is for exploration research and development
  • $5,151 million for science, of which $80 million is for pre-formulation or formulation activities for a Europa mission, and the James Webb Space Telescope’s development costs remain capped at $8 billion
  • $576 million for space technology
  • $566 million for aeronautics
  • $3,778 million for space operations
  • $116.6 million for education, of which
    • $18 million is for EPSCOR and
    • $40 million is for Space Grant
  • $2,793 million for Cross Agency Support
  • $515 million for Construction and Environmental Compliance and Restoration
  • $37.5 million for Inspector General

 The prohibition on engaging in any activities related to bilateral space cooperation with China remains.