Category: Commercial

House Speaker John Boehner to Resign from Congress At End of October

House Speaker John Boehner to Resign from Congress At End of October

House Speaker John Boehner told his Republican conference this morning that he will resign his Speakership and his seat in Congress on October 30, 2015.

The House has been girding for battle on the FY2016 appropriations bills pitting those whose primary interest is keeping the government operating against those determined to end government funding of Planned Parenthood.   The most conservative wing of the Republican party in the House has sent strong indications that they plan to try to remove Boehner as Speaker this fall because they do not think he fights strongly enough for their causes, such as defunding Planned Parenthood. 

Boehner, a Catholic and former altar boy, was visibly moved by the visit of Pope Francis yesterday.  He and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), also a Catholic, were the ones who invited the Pope to address a joint session of Congress, the first Pope to accept such an invitation.   The Pope’s visit fulfilled one of Boehner’s lifelong dreams according to multiple accounts.

One of the Pope’s messages to Congress was unity: “Each son or daughter of a given country has a mission, a personal and social responsibility.  Your own responsibility as members of Congress is to enable this country, by your legislative activity, to grow as a nation. …. Legislative activity is always based on the care for the people.  To this you have been invited, called and convened by those who elected you.”

The Hill newspaper quotes a Boehner aide as saying that Boehner feels his primary role in Congress is to protect the institution and “as we saw yesterday with the Holy Father, it is the one thing that unites and inspires us all.”  The aide added that Boehner felt a prolonged battle over his leadership “would do irreparable damage to the institution” and he therefore will resign “for the good of the Republican conference and the institution.”   The aide also said that Boehner planned to retire last year, but stayed after his second-in-command, then-House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA), lost his seat in a primary race.

Cantor was succeeded as Majority Leader by Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA).  Speculation as to who will replace Boehner as Speaker in these initial hours focuses on McCarthy.  He issued a statement saying “It takes profound humility to step down from a position of power, and John’s depth of character is unmatched. … Now is the time for our conference to focus on healing and unifying to face the challenges ahead and always do what is best for the American people.”

From a space policy standpoint, McCarthy represents the district that includes Edwards Air Force Base and the Mojave Air & Space Port.   He has been actively involved in commercial space issues and is the lead sponsor of H.R. 2262, the Spurring Private Aerospace Competitiveness and Entrepreneurship (SPACE) Act, which passed the House on May 21.   It is far too early, of course, to assume that he will become Speaker or that space policy will have greater visibility in the House if he is.

Boehner’s announcement may be good news for those who want to avoid a government shutdown next week because he may be more willing to pass a clean Continuing Resolution (CR) using Democratic votes to get the needed 218 votes even though many of his own members will vote against it.  He and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) have vowed since the beginning of the year that they will not allow another shutdown like the one in 2013, and both have been fighting the most conservative wings of their parties that do not view a government shutdown as a negative.   McConnell is going through a process in the Senate right now that many expect will ultimately lead to the Senate passing a clean CR (without any policy riders such as defunding Planned Parenthood).

It is always risky to try and predict what Congress will do, however, as Boehner’s surprise announcement this morning proves.

Rep. Smith Questions NOAA's Commitment to Commercial Weather Data

Rep. Smith Questions NOAA's Commitment to Commercial Weather Data

In a letter to NOAA Administrator Kathy Sullivan today, Rep. Lamar Smith (R-TX), chairman of the House Science, Space and Technology (SS&T) Committee, questioned whether NOAA truly is committed to the idea of commercial partnerships to obtain weather satellite data to augment and avoid gaps in data from NOAA’s own satellite programs.  NOAA recently released a draft Commercial Space Policy, but Smith asserts that it simply “provides NOAA cover to continue to avoid commercial options.”

NOAA’s draft Commercial Space Policy was released on September 1.  Public comments are due by October 1.  It would set policy for NOAA to interact with the commercial sector for data buys, hosted payloads, rideshares, and launch services, but not for designing, building or operating government-owned spacecraft or data transfer services solely for dissemination purposes.

Smith complains in his letter to Sullivan that the draft policy took 2 years to produce, but is only 13 pages long.   It “does not provide sufficient details to give a true indication of NOAA’s willingness to actually engage in commercial partnerships” and “does not appear to solve any of the issues that continue to be raised on this matter,” he writes.

Among his criticisms are that the draft policy requires data to meet certain quality standards, but NOAA has not made any such standards public, and NOAA’s responsibilities as outlined in the draft “may become burdensome, making commercial acquisitions unnecessarily complex.”  He requests NOAA to provide his committee with documents and communications related to formulation of the draft and to NOAA’s public engagement related to it by October 7, 2015.

The House SS&T Committee has held a number of hearings on the potential of using data from commercial sources in NOAA’s weather forecasting activities over the past several years.  Rep. Jim Bridenstine (R-OK) has been a leader on this issue in the House.  (The National Weather Center is located in Norman, OK.)  At a February 2015 hearing he called on NOAA to “look outside the box” at commercial efforts like PlanetIQ, Spire, GeoOptics, Tempus Global Data and HySpecIQ to deliver GPS radio occultation or hyperspectral atmospheric data to augment weather forecasts.

NOAA operates two weather satellite constellations, one in polar orbit and one in geostationary orbit.   NOAA has expressed concern for years that gaps may develop between existing satellites in those constellations and their replacements – the new Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) and the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R (GOES-R) series.  Commercial data buy advocates argue that their data could fill in those gaps.

The House passed the Weather Research and Forecast Innovation Act (H.R. 1561) in May that would create a pilot program for commercial space-based weather data and authorized $9 million for it. During markup of the bill, Bridenstine argued that the commercial approach would create resiliency and mitigate against the risks inherent in the “huge, monolithic” satellites NOAA currently relies upon.

Bridenstine tried to get that $9 million appropriated during House consideration of the FY2016 Commerce-Justice-Science (CJS) appropriations bill, but withdrew his amendment after CJS subcommittee chairman Rep. John Culberson (R-TX) promised to work with the Senate to add it in conference on the bill.  The Senate Appropriations Committee did not include that $9 million, but does encourage NOAA to explore options for obtaining GPS radio occultation data from commercial sources in the report on its version of the bill.  

The Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee approved the Seasonal Forecasting Improvement Act, S. 1331, in May that shares some of the same goals as H.R. 1561, but focuses more on improving procurement of government satellites.  The Senate has not voted on that bill yet.

One concern about NOAA using commercial weather satellite data is whether it could be shared on the same full, open and free basis as government data.  One of the “guiding principles” of the draft NOAA policy is that NOAA will continue to adhere to the full, open and free data policy bearing in mind U.S. commitments to the World Meteorological Organization and honoring existing partnerships with government, international and industry organizations.

Panel: Seamless Transition to Commercial LEO Space Station Needed

Panel: Seamless Transition to Commercial LEO Space Station Needed

A panel of experts convened by the Secure World Foundation (SWF) and the Alliance for Space Development (ASD) today made the case for accelerating the emergence of commercial space stations and other facilities in low Earth orbit (LEO) to avoid another gap in human spaceflight as International Space Station (ISS) operations wrap up in the next decade.  NASA should help by stating what its requirements will be post-ISS, thereby encouraging other potential customers to follow suit and motivating companies to build facilities to meet those needs.

Charles Miller, President of NexGen Space LLC, and Mike Gold, Director of DC Operations and Business Growth for Bigelow Aerospace, insisted NASA needs to do more to make commercial LEO activities a reality.  Miller is a former NASA senior advisor for commercial space.  Bigelow is building inflatable space modules, one of which will be attached to the ISS late this year or early next as a test.  (It is scheduled to be taken to the ISS on the next SpaceX cargo mission, SpX-8. A date for that launch has not been announced as SpaceX recovers from the failure of SpX-7 in June.)

Miller stressed that a “seamless, low-risk transition” from ISS to commercial space stations is critical, noting that current plans to operate ISS extend only to 2024, which is not that far away.  He listed four markets (not including NASA) for LEO services — microgravity research, propellant transfer, transportation node, and on-orbit assembly.  Of those, he counted microgravity research as the most speculative.  The other three have much clearer markets, he contended:  the planned United Launch Alliance (ULA) Vulcan rocket with its ACES upper stage is the harbinger of a new paradigm in launch that will eventually lead to commercial propellant depots in LEO; the use of the ISS for deploying nanosatelites is a precursor of the transportation node concept; and the advantages of assembling modular geostationary (GEO) satellites in LEO and then moving them to GEO, instead of subjecting the assembled satellite to the stresses of launch, will stimulate an on-orbit assembly business.

Bigelow launched two test inflatable modules, Genesis I and Gensis II, a decade ago using converted Russian ICBMs, Gold recounted.  Next is the Bigelow Expandable Activity Module (BEAM) that will be attached to ISS and allow astronauts to enter one of these modules for the first time.   NASA launched the first inflatable at the beginning of the Space Age — the Echo communications relay satellite — and continued work under the TransHab program, but ultimately abandoned the concept.  Millionaire Robert Bigelow, owner of the Budget Suites of America hotel chain, is investing his own money ($500 million according to Gold), to turn the concept into reality, with the goal of using such modules not just in LEO, but perhaps as habitats on the surface of the Moon or Mars.

One question is what federal agency would regulate in-space activities.  Article VI of the 1967 Outer Space Treaty requires governments to supervise space activities by their non-government entities, but no U.S. government agency has been assigned that responsibility.  Gold called it a “regulatory gap.”   Steph Earle of the FAA’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation (FAA/AST) advocated for his office to be given that role.  Stressing that his office currently licenses only launch and reentry, not on-orbit activities, he said they are supportive of the concept because it is consistent with the 2010 National Space Policy.  

Miller disagreed that FAA/AST is the appropriate regulatory body, saying that transportation is part of commercial LEO activities, but much more is involved and perhaps the Department of Commerce should have a role, perhaps by expanding NOAA’s regulatory responsibilities (it licenses commercial remote sensing satellites).  

FAA/AST was created in the early 1980s partially in response to the difficulties encountered by early commercial space launch companies, notably Space Services Inc. with its Conestoga rocket, because it had to get approvals from 16 different agencies to launch one rocket.  Carissa Christensen, Managing Partner of The Tauri Group, emphasized that it would not be cost-effective to go back to having multiple agencies in charge of regulating commercial space endeavors.  She further cautioned that the real barriers to successful commercialization of LEO, not to mention the Moon and Mars, are not regulatory, but economic:  “there is a thin line between pursuing a visionary dream and tilting at windmills.”

Gold and Miller see NASA as holding the key.   Mr. Bigelow is putting in a “vast” amount of his own money, but NASA needs to “act like a smart customer” and “play some role as a catalyst” to get other governments and customers to sign up, Gold said.  He worries that there will be a “human platform gap” if decisions are not made soon where “the only station we will have is China’s.”   Miller was even more adamant: “NASA is actually hurting the industry by not being willing to state how much they’re willing to buy” even though its need for LEO facilities “never goes away.”  He advocated a “COTS-like partnership to stimulate” activities and markets, a reference to NASA’s Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) public private partnership that led to the SpaceX and Orbital ATK commercial cargo systems that resupply the ISS.

The panel’s bottom line was that there are many issues to be solved before LEO commercialization is a reality, from market demand (including NASA’s) to regulatory oversight, but the most critical is to avoid a gap between the end of the ISS program and whatever commercial LEO facilities will follow.

NASA Associate Administrator for Human Exploration and Operations Bill Gerstenmaier has, in fact, been raising similar concerns in testimony to Congress and elsewhere.  NASA also held a LEO commercialization workshop in December 2014, but specifics on NASA’s needs have not been publicly identified.  One factor is when ISS operations will end, something that has not been determined.  The Obama Administration is committed to at least 2024, but ISS advocates anticipate it will continue at least until 2028 — its 30th anniversary.

GAO: FAA Space Office May Need More Resources, But Does Poor Job Justifying It

GAO: FAA Space Office May Need More Resources, But Does Poor Job Justifying It

The Government Accountability Office (GAO) said today that the Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA’s) Office of Commercial Space Transportation (AST) may need more resources to cope with the recent rise in commercial space launch licenses, but does a poor job of justifying it in budget requests to Congress.  It also pointed out that the moratorium on the FAA creating new regulations for the commercial human spaceflight expires at the end of this month.   Rep. Lamar Smith (R-TX), chairman of the House Science, Space, and Technology Committee, who requested the report, said it underscores the need for Congress to reach agreement on pending legislation to extend the moratorium.

The report reviews the growth in the U.S. commercial space launch business, which is regulated and facilitated by AST.  U.S. companies conducted 11 orbital commercial launches in 2014; in 2011 there were none.  The industry is expected to continue growing, and FAA requested a 16 percent increase in staff in its FY2016 budget request, but GAO said no detailed justification was provided.

FAA/AST is asking for a $1.5 million increase in its budget, from $16.605 million to $18.114 million, to add 13 full time equivalent staff positions for a new total of 92.   Congress has not been entirely supportive.  The House-passed Transportation-HUD appropriations bill provided only a $250,000 increase, and that was added during floor debate, not by the appropriators.  The Senate Appropriations Committee recommended an $820 million increase, $689 million less than the request.

AST not only is handling an increase in applications for launch licenses, but also is involved in several accident investigations:  the October 28, 2014 Orbital Sciences Corporation Antares failure; the October 31, 2014 SpaceShipTwo crash; and the June 28, 2015 SpaceX Falcon 9 failure.  Although FAA regulations put the companies in charge of such investigations, AST is a key participant, making those investigations an additional drain on resources.  The National Transportation Safety Board’s (NTSB’s) review of the SpaceShipTwo crash faulted some of AST’s actions in licensing that test, although it was not the probable cause.  (Separately, a recent NASA Inspector General report raises questions about NASA’s involvement in the Antares investigation.)

GAO looked more broadly at AST’s set of responsibilities amid a steep rise in the commercial space launch business in today’s report.  Its bottom line is that Congress lacks the information it needs to assess what resources are needed.  The report’s one recommendation is that the Secretary of Transportation direct the FAA Administrator to provide that data.

Regarding the September 30, 2015 expiration of the moratorium on new regulations for commercial human spaceflight, GAO said that “most” of the representatives of commercial space launch companies it interviewed were in favor of extending it again (it was already extended in 2012).  Also called a “learning period,” the provision originally enacted in 2004 prohibits FAA from creating new regulations governing the safety of crew and passengers while the industry gains sufficient experience to inform any such regulations.  The FAA/AST’s primary responsibility is protecting the uninvolved public (third parties) from a safety standpoint.  Whether or not the learning period should be extended has been a source of friction between AST and its Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC).  AST head George Nield does not want it extended while COMSTAC does.

The House passed the Spurring Private Aerospace Competitiveness and Entrepreneurship (SPACE), H.R. 2262, in May, which would extend the learning period to December 31, 2025.  House SS&T Chairman Smith said today that the GAO report underscores the importance of finalizing action on that bill. The Senate-passed version of a related bill, S. 1297, would extend it to 2020. 

Smith also said AST should “maximize its current resources,” including the use of overtime and “facilitating the development of industry standards to respond to increased workloads,” but the committee “will work with the FAA to ensure it has the resources it needs to ensure a healthy and safe domestic commercial space sector.”  House SS&T is an authorizing committee that sets policy and recommends funding levels, but only the appropriations committees actually provide funding.  No reaction from the House or Senate appropriations committees was evident today.

What's Happening in Space Policy September 21-25, 2015

What's Happening in Space Policy September 21-25, 2015

Here is our list of space policy related events for the week of September 21-25, 2015 and any insight we can offer about them.  The Senate is in session this week except for Wednesday (Yom Kippur), while the House is in session only on Thursday and Friday.

During the Week

The visit to Washington, DC by Pope Francis Tuesday-Thursday takes the spotlight this week, not because he is expected to say anything about space policy, but because just about everyone’s attention is focused on that instead of other things (like funding the federal government after September 30 — the clock’s ticking! — not to mention finalizing the FY2016 NDAA or the Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness Act).  If you haven’t heard, the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) has advised federal agencies to let their employees work from home to avoid the traffic meltdown that’s expected as roads are closed throughout town and Metro is overwhelmed.

Intrepid souls who are willing to venture out anyway have interesting events they can attend, however.  On Tuesday, the Secure World Foundation and the Alliance for Space Development will hold a panel discussion on “Commercial Space Stations in LEO: Preparing for the Future.”  It’s from 12:30-2:00 pm ET and should be over before the Pope’s plane lands at 4:00 pm ET, so you might be able to get in and out without too much trouble (but check local traffic information sources to find out when the roads you need to use will close and the status of Metro).  NAC’s Ad Hoc STEM Task Force meets that day at NASA Headquarters (9:30-3:30) and there’s an interesting talk at the National Museum of American History at 4:00 on the history of agricultural use of Landsat data during the Cold War era (tea and cookies at 3:30).  Travel might be a bit tricky by the time those are over – bring your patience!  On Thursday, the National Academies Space Technology Industry, Government, University Roundtable (STIGUR) meets all day at the Keck Center on 5th Street, NW.  The Pope will be addressing a joint session of Congress Thursday morning and leaves for New York later in the day, so hopefully the traffic tie-ups will be closer to the Hill and not the Keck Center, but give yourself plenty of time if you plan to attend.

On Monday, before he arrives, the Washington Space Business Roundtable is holding a luncheon panel on the Export-Import Bank situation, which could be quite interesting.  Congress has not reauthorized the bank so it no longer can help finance U.S. aerospace exports.  It’s a prickly political issue that could have significant consequences for companies like Boeing, one of the largest users of the bank.  Jeff Trauberman will be on the panel to talk about Boeing’s point of view, along with Ted McFarland from Orbital ATK and other industry representatives.

If you’re lucky enough to be in South Korea rather than Washington, DC, the annual Asia Pacific Satellite Conference and Exhibition is taking place in Seoul on Tuesday-Thursday.

Those and other events we know about as of Sunday morning are listed below.

Monday, September 21

Tuesday, September 22

Tuesday-Thursday, September 22-24

Thursday, September 24

 

NASA IG: NASA Missed Opportunity to Save Up to $84 Million After Antares Failure

NASA IG: NASA Missed Opportunity to Save Up to $84 Million After Antares Failure

NASA’s Office of Inspector General (OIG) reported today that NASA missed the opportunity to save up to $84 million on its Commercial Resupply Services (CRS) contract with Orbital ATK following the October 2014 Antares failure.  The agency will not pay more than the fixed price CRS contract’s value of $1.9 billion, but it could have reduced its costs under the terms of that contract.  The OIG also found Orbital ATK’s return to flight plan may be difficult to execute, citing the lack of a test flight of the revamped Antares rocket as one challenge.

Antares exploded 15 seconds after liftoff on October 28, 2014, dooming a Cygnus capsule full of supplies for the International Space Station (ISS).  It was the third of a planned eight Orbital Sciences Corporation launches under its CRS contract  — Orb-3.  Orbital Sciences merged with ATK earlier this year and is now Orbital ATK. 

The original CRS contract requires Orbital ATK to deliver 20 tons of cargo to the ISS by the end of 2016 for $1.9 billion. The company plans to fulfill that commitment by combining the remaining cargo into four rather than five more launches using a larger version of Cygnus.  Two will launch on United Launch Alliance (ULA) Atlas V rockets.  The other two are expected to use a new version of Antares that uses Russian RD-181 engines instead of the older Russian NK33/AJ26 engines that caused the failure.

Orbital ATK officials had laid out plans for returning Antares to flight in March 2016, preceded by a Cygnus launch on an ULA Atlas V on December 3, 2015.   Two weeks ago, however, Frank Culbertson, President of Orbital ATK’s Space Systems Division, said that the March 2016 launch will use another ULA Atlas V instead.  Antares will return to flight in the “spring,” he indicated, with two or three more launches that year.  (NASA awarded Orbital ATK additional launches under an extension of the CRS contract.)

The OIG report found that the return-to-flight plan may be difficult to execute on schedule.  Among its concerns is that Orbital ATK does not plan a test launch with the new RD-181 engines and NASA has not conducted detailed technical assessments of the new system.

The CRS contract is fixed price and NASA will not pay more, but the OIG report says that it could have reduced its costs by up to $84 million in two ways.  First, NASA “did not invoke a contract provision allowing for an adjustment to the mission pricing worth as much as $21 million, but instead received other nonmonetary considerations with an assessed value of $2 million.”   The report says NASA explained that invoking the provision might have led to a reopening of pricing negotiations and ultimately lead to higher costs.  The OIG replied that negotiations were already underway because of schedule delays, and NASA should have at least tried.

Second, when Orbital ATK decided to combine the remaining tonnage into four instead of five flights, it “did not use the per-kilogram pricing in the original contract and instead divided the price for the cancelled eighth mission by its contractual upmass requirement to arrive at a revised price-per-kilogram.”  Consequently, NASA is spending $65 million more than if the original pricing plan was used, according to the OIG.  In exchange, Orbital ATK offered NASA several “considerations,” such as flying 600 kilograms (kg) of cargo at no cost to NASA. The OIG questioned the value of those services, however.  For example, 400 kg of that amount was flown on an Antares demonstration flight in 2013 and “we question whether this is something NASA would have been required to pay.” 

The OIG also criticized NASA’s practice of paying for launches “far in advance of actual flight.”  Orbital ATK has “received almost $1.6 billion of the more than $2 billion contract value after flying only 2 successful missions of the 10 currently planned.”

Antares is launched from the Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport (MARS) at NASA’s Wallops Flight Facility, Wallops Island, VA.  MARS is owned by the Commonwealth of Virginia and operated by the Virginia Commercial Space Flight Authority (VCSFA).  Under its agreement with NASA, VCSFA was required to obtain insurance to cover liability and damage to NASA facilities, insure its own facilities, and waive all claims against the Government for damages that might arise.  “However, although NASA officials stated that VCSFA intended to self-insure … it is not clear from correspondence between VCSFA and NASA that this issue was understood or agreed upon by both parties.”  NASA ended up paying $5 million of the $15 million costs to repair the site.  (Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe announced on August 12, 2015 that a new arrangement has been reached among the Commonwealth, Orbital ATK and VSCFA regarding insurance and repair costs.)

The OIG report also criticized the independence of Orbital ATK’s investigation of the accident.  This was a commercial launch licensed by the FAA, and while it meets the FAA’s requirements, it “lacks the level of independence required of NASA Mishap Investigation Boards.”

The OIG made a total of seven recommendations.  NASA agreed with all but one — that NASA establish procedures to ensure that insurance policies adhere to agreements and provide adequate financial liability and damage coverage.  In his response, printed in the report, NASA Associate Administrator for Human Exploration and Operations Bill Gerstenmaier said those procedures are already in place and were followed by Orbital and VCSFA, because VCSFA self insured for its own property during launch operations rather than purchasing insurance, which was a business decision.  “NASA was not required to contribute funds to the recovery effort at the site, but rather made an appropriate programmatic and policy-based decision to do so,” Gerstenmaier wrote.

NASA concurred with an OIG recommendation (number 4) to ensure the agency takes advantage of opportunities to save money, but the OIG said that it did not find NASA’s comments to be responsive.   The agency’s “comments do not suggest it intends to do anything differently in the future to ensure it receives the best value.”

Blue Origin to Build, Test, Launch from Cape Canaveral

Blue Origin to Build, Test, Launch from Cape Canaveral

Blue Origin has selected Florida as the location for its manufacturing, engine testing and launch facilities for a new orbital rocket. The company will use Launch Complex 36 (LC-36) at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) as its base of operations for the reusable rocket whose first launch will take place by the end of this decade.

Blue Origin founder Jeff Bezos was joined by nine federal, state and local political, government and business dignitaries to make the announcement this morning on a stage set up for the event at LC-36.  Bezos said that very spot would become a vehicle processing facility, with an engine test stand for the BE-4 engine 4,000 feet in one direction, and a new launch pad 36 2,000 feet in the other direction.


Space Florida President Frank DiBello (at podium), Florida Governor Rick Scott (first seat on left), Blue Origin founder Jeff Bezos (next to Scott)
and other dignitaries at September 15, 2015 ceremony announcing Blue Origin’s choice of Cape Canaveral’s Launch Complex-36 (LC-36)
as manufacturing, engine testing and launch site for new orbital Blue Origin rocket. The event took place at LC-36.  Screenshot from NASA TV.

LC-36 was used for 145 launches over 43 years, but the last one took place in 2005.  The “pad has stood silent for more than 10 years — too long.  We can’t wait to fix that,” Bezos exclaimed.


Red circle marks LC-36 on this map from the Air Force Space & Missile Museum website.

Florida Governor Rick Scott (R), Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL), and Florida House Speaker Steve Crisafulli (R-Brevard County) were among the politicians on stage.  All three had gathered at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center, adjacent to CCAFS, just 11 days ago to announce Boeing’s opening of a processing facility for its CST-100 Starliner commercial crew capsule. 

The Boeing and Blue Origin announcements mean jobs for Florida’s Space Coast, which took a beating after the space shuttle and Constellation programs were terminated. Bezos himself was not specific about the economic implications of his decision, but Scott said Blue Origin is investing $200 million locally and creating 330 jobs.

Bezos did not reveal many details about the new rocket, promising more information next year.  Among the missing information is the rocket’s name and what it will launch, although the assumption is that space tourism is one market.   Blue Origin is already building the smaller New Shepard rocket for suborbital human spaceflight.


Blue Origin founder Jeff Bezos shows illustration of new orbital rocket that will launch from Launch Complex 36
at Cape Canaveral, FL.  Screenshot from September 15, 2015 event broadcast on NASA TV.

Today, Bezos said only that it will have a fully reusable booster stage, will
launch and land vertically, and use the company’s BE-3 and BE-4
engines.  The BE-4 will be the first commercial rocket engine to use liquefied natural gas (methane) and liquid
oxygen (LOX) as propellant.  United Launch Alliance (ULA) and Blue Origin are partnering to use the BE-4 for ULA’s new Vulcan rocket, a deal they confirmed last week amid media reports that Aerojet Rocketdyne wants to purchase ULA and use its AR1 engine instead.  The AR1 is a conventionally-powered LOX/kerosene engine.

Co-locating the manufacturing, engine testing and launch facilities “eases the challenge of processing and transporting really big rockets,” Bezos explained.  Because acceptance testing of the BE-4 engine will take place there, “you will hear us before you see us,” he added, and launches will begin “later this decade.”

Nelson left the event after he spoke, explaining that he had to catch a plane to Washington to, among other things, continue working to get the Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness Act finalized.  He was hopeful it would clear Congress “in the next few weeks.”   The House and Senate have each passed versions of the bill, but they are different so a compromise is needed.   One similarity, Nelson said, is that both would streamline the permitting process for commercial companies that want to use Air Force installations like Cape Canaveral.

What's Happening in Space Policy September 14-18, 2015

What's Happening in Space Policy September 14-18, 2015

Here is our list of space policy related events for the week of September 14-18, 2015 and any insight we can offer about them.  The House and Senate are in session this week.

During the Week

As of today (Sunday), no space-related hearings have been announced for the coming week (although Rep. Honda is hosting a morning reception and exhibit on Earth and geoscience research on Thursday)  Whether any progress will be made on a Continuing Resolution (CR) to fund the government beginning October 1 or reaching a compromise on either the Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness Act or the FY2016 National Defense Authorization Act is anyone’s guess.  Stay tuned.

Off the Hill, there are a number of interesting events, starting tomorrow morning (Monday) with a press event at the National Press Club to mark the half-way point for Scott Kelly and Mikhail Kornienko’s “year in space.”  Kelly will participate from the International Space Station (ISS) via videolink.   His twin brother, former astronaut Mark Kelly, will be at the Press Club in person along with astronaut Terry Virts who recently returned from ISS.  NASA TV will cover one hour of it, from 9:00-10:00 am ET.

Also on tap this week is the Air Force Association’s Air & Space Conference at the Gaylord National Resort and Conference Center in National Harbor, MD, just outside Washington, DC.  Air Force Secretary Deborah Lee James is scheduled to speak tomorrow (Monday) from 10:30-10:55 am ET on “Reinventing the Aerospace Nation.”  She tweeted last week that it would be webcast.  Gen. John Hyten will speak on Tuesday at 2:25 pm ET on “Preserving our Space and Cyberspace Capabilities.”  Secretary of Defense Ash Carter will speak on Wednesday at 9:55 am ET.  Two commercial guys — Brett Alexander from Blue Origin and Antonio Elias from Orbital ATK — are on the agenda for Wednesday at 11:00 am ET speaking about “Space in the Commercial Sector.”  Not clear if those will be webcast.   We’ll add links on our calendar when and if they are made available.

Speaking of Blue Origin, Jeff Bezos is going to make a “significant announcement” at a media event at Cape Canaveral on Tuesday morning, but everything is hush hush other than the fact that the event will take place beginning at 9:45 am ET.   We’re told a decision has not been made on whether it will be webcast.  If we get a link, we’ll add it to our calendar entry for the event.

Those and other events we know about as of Sunday afternoon are listed below.

Monday, September 14

Monday-Wednesday, September 14-16

  • Air Force Association Air & Space Conference, National Harbor, MD (outside Washington DC).  Among the speakers are–
    • Monday, Air Force Secretary Deborah Lee James, 10:30 am ET
    • Tuesday, Air Force Space Command Commander Gen. John Hyten, 2:25 pm ET
    • Wednesday, Secretary of Defense Ash Carter, 9:55 am ET
    • Wednesday, Blue Origin’s Brett Alexander and Orbital ATK’s Antonio Elias, 11:00 am ET

Monday-Friday, September 14-18

Tuesday, September 15

Tuesday-Friday, September 15-18

Wednesday-Thursday, September 16-17

Thursday, September 17

Friday, September 18

Editor’s note:  This article was updated Sunday afternoon to add the Earth and geoscience research briefing on Thursday and the Google+ Hangout on Friday, and on Monday morning adding Secretary of Defense Ash Carter’s talk at AFA on Wednesday.

ULA and Blue Origin Move Forward with BE-4 Plan

ULA and Blue Origin Move Forward with BE-4 Plan

United Launch Alliance (ULA) and Blue Origin announced an agreement today for expanding production of Blue Origin’s BE-4 engine that ULA wants to use for its new Vulcan rocket.  The announcement takes place against the backdrop of reports that another rocket engine company, Aerojet Rocketdyne, is trying to buy ULA, which would, at best, complicate the ULA/Blue Origin plan.

ULA and Blue Origin, founded by Amazon.com’s Jeff Bezos, revealed amid much fanfare last fall that they were teaming on ULA’s new Vulcan rocket that is intended to eventually replace the two rockets ULA currently uses, Atlas V and Delta IV.  Congress is insisting that use of Russian RD-180 engines that currently power the Atlas V be discontinued by 2019 for national security launches, the mainstay of ULA’s launch business.   Blue Origin’s BE-4 (Blue Engine 4) is viewed by ULA as the most mature domestically made engine that could replace the RD-180s.  Today’s announcement said that BE-4 “offers the fastest path” to a domestic replacement for RD-180s and will “achieve qualification flight in 2017 to support the first Vulcan flight in 2019.”

ULA and the Air Force are trying to convince Congress to provide more flexibility on the 2019 RD-180 cutoff date since a first flight in 2019 is not the same as having a launch vehicle full certified for launching expensive national security payloads.  The House is sympathetic to that argument in its version of the FY2016 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), but the Senate Armed Services Committee is holding fast to 2019.  The two sides are currently trying to reach agreement on a compromise version of the NDAA.

BE-4 uses an innovative design based on liquid oxygen (LOX) and methane as propellant rather than traditional LOX/kerosene.  ULA President Tory Bruno champions Blue Origin’s engine, but also said earlier this year that the company is keeping Aerojet Rocketdyne’s (AJR) new AR1 LOX/kerosene engine in mind as a backup.  Two days ago the Wall Street Journal reported that AJR is bidding to purchase ULA for about $2 billion.  If that deal were to go through — a big if — it clearly would imperil the use of BE-4 for Vulcan.

Today’s ULA/Blue Origin announcement suggests that those two companies are continuing on course nonetheless.  Bezos said the new agreement is “an important step toward building BE-4s at the production rate needed” for Vulcan.

GAO Lambasts Air Force, Chides DOD, Over GPS OCX Ground Segment Acquisition

GAO Lambasts Air Force, Chides DOD, Over GPS OCX Ground Segment Acquisition

The Government Accountability Office (GAO) lambasted the Air Force today for poor acquisition decisions on the Global Positioning System’s (GPS’s) future Operational Control System (OCX).  The Air Force has “consistently overstated progress” on OCX and “needs $1.1 billion and four years more than planned.”  GAO recommended that DOD take four OCX-related actions centered on an independent review and chided DOD for brushing them off, warning that without “swift and thoughtful action,” the OCX problems will continue.

The Air Force operates the GPS system, which was designed, built and paid for by DOD, but is used ubiquitously around the globe by military and civilian users for positioning, navigation and timing (PNT) purposes.   GPS consists of the space segment (a constellation of 24 operational satellites, plus spares), the ground segment (a ground-based Operational Control System — OCS — at Schriever Air Force Base, CO, with a backup at Vandenberg AFB, CA) and the user equipment segment (military and civilian receivers).

The Air Force is modernizing all three segments.  GAO has reported previously on the latest series of satellites, GPS III.   Today’s report is about the ground segment as well as the military GPS user equipment (MGUE) portion of the user segment.

The Air Force began work on a modernized ground control system, OCX, to replace the current OCS, in 2007.  OCX is needed to obtain the full functionality of GPS III.  Raytheon was awarded an $886 million development contract for OCX blocks 1 and 2 in 2010, with an option for blocks 3 and 4 in the future.  Total OCX operations costs including the Raytheon contract, prior technology development and other annual costs were estimated at $3.5 billion.  Blocks 1 and 2 were to be delivered in August 2015 and March 2016 respectively.

The $886 million estimate and the program’s schedule have “more than doubled” since 2010, GAO reported. The cost increased “by approximately $1.1 billion to $1.98 billion” because the Air Force “did not follow key acquisition practices.”  For example, it did not conduct a Milestone B review before awarding the development contract to ensure resources and requirements were matched, and did not complete a preliminary design review before beginning development to confirm the preliminary design was ready to “proceed into detailed design with acceptable risk.”  Furthermore, “key requirements, especially for cybersecurity, were not well understood by the Air Force and contractor” when the contract was awarded. 

GAO found that Raytheon experienced “significant software challenges” from the beginning, but the Air Force “consistently presented optimistic assessments” to those overseeing the acquisition process.  As development problems continued, Air Force progress reports “continued to be overly optimistic” even as development was “paused” to fix “root causes.”   GAO’s assessment is that “OCX issues appear to be persistent and systemic, raising doubts whether all root causes have been adequately identified, let alone addressed, and whether realistic cost and schedule estimates have been developed.”

Independent reviews by the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD) and audits by the Defense Contract Management Agency (DCMA) found ongoing problems and “undisciplined processes” such as with peer review at Raytheon.  Despite efforts by the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics (USD AT&L) to gain better insight in recent years, GAO concluded that “there is little reason to believe that OCX systemic problems have been adequately addressed.”  The DCMA forecast in June 2015 that the OCX cost would increase to $2.15 billion, and the Air Force’s current schedule estimate that Block 1 will be delivered in July 2019 is “still optimistic by at least a year” compared to an independent review conducted in October 2014.

The story on the military user equipment, MGUE, is much the same.  It is “unlikely” that “sufficient knowledge about MGUE design and performance” will be ready in time to make “informed procurement decisions” beginning in FY2018, the report said.

The good news, though, is that the current GPS satellites are lasting much longer than expected.  The current GPS constellation consists mostly of GPS IIR and IIR-M satellites that are lasting as long as 20 years, GAO said, and even newer GPS IIF satellites are now being launched.   Development of the newest GPS III version encountered its own problems.  The expected launch of the first GPS III has slipped from 2014 to 2017.  In 2010, GAO warned that delays in launching GPS III satellites could result in the on-orbit constellation dropping below the 24 satellite threshold needed for a fully operational system.  The extended lifetimes of the GPS IIR and IIR-M satellites mitigate the impact of delays in GPS III and OCX for now at least.  GAO warns, however, that further delays in OCX could reinstate that concern.  As for the M-code for MGUE, GAO estimates that its full deployment “is more than a decade away.”

GAO considers OCX to be the pacing item for GPS modernization.  Its recommendation in this report is for the Secretary of Defense to take five actions, four related to OCX and one for MGUE, as follows:

  • convene an independent task force to conduct a thorough review of OCX;
  • develop high confidence OCX cost and schedule estimates;
  • direct the Air Force to retain experts from the independent task force as a management advisory team;
  • establish a mechanism for ensuring knowledge gained from the OCX assessment is used to determine whether further programmatic changes are needed to strengthen oversight; and
  • incorporate a Critical Design Review (CDR) in the MGUE development effort to allow the military services to fully assess the maturity of the MGUE design before committing test and procurement resources.

GAO provides draft copies of its reports to whatever agency is being reviewed, which then has an opportunity to respond. GAO publishes the response as part of the report.  In this case, DOD concurred with the four OCX-related actions by saying the independent reviews it already conducted fulfilled that intent. GAO pushed back on that, saying those comments “provide little confidence” that the problems will be fixed since the earlier reviews were “non-binding and advisory in nature.”

“If business continues as usual without swift and thoughtful action, OCX will likely continue on its path of demonstrating poor cost and schedule outcomes,” GAO warned.  “We continue to stand by our recommendations calling for a fresh review — this time an in-depth and comprehensive critical review of the program — to identify the true root causes of OCX development difficulties and to ensure the Air Force implements the corrective actions.”

As for the MGUE action, DOD partially concurred, agreeing a CDR is desirable, but noting the potential impact on schedule.  GAO stressed, however, that skipping “best practice” steps like that “generally results in an inability to deliver promised cost and schedule outcomes.”