“Blue Tsunami” Puts Democrats in Control of House and Senate Next Year

Democratic victories in yesterday’s midterm elections are being touted not as a “Blue wave,” but a “Blue tsunami” as votes are counted throughout the country. The final tally is not in as of Wednesday morning at 8:00 am ET, but the Associated Press is projecting Democrats will have at least 54 seats in the Senate and 228 in the House, putting them in charge when the 120th Congress begins on January 3. Republicans remain in control of both chambers until then and will have to decide which legislative priorities to try and pass during these next two months.

AP’s projections at this moment show 54 Democrats and 44 Republicans in the Senate beginning January 3, with two races still too close to call in Alaska and Mississippi. Control of the Senate requires 51 votes. Right now there are 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats (including two Independents who caucus with the Democrats).

In the House, 218 votes are required for control. The current split is very close: 218 Republicans, 214 Democrats and 1 Independent, with two vacancies. For next year, AP is projecting 228 Democrats and 139 Republicans with 68 races not yet decided, but both parties acknowledge Democrats will have the majority.

What it all means for space activities is difficult to assess at this early stage, although The Planetary Society will share their analysis of the impact on NASA this afternoon at 3:00 pm ET.

NASA has strong bipartisan support and Congress already has been pushing back on Trump Administration efforts to significantly cut NASA’s budget. Democratic control may make it more difficult for the Administration to implement policies like the proposed rule on how federal grants are awarded, however.

The election results may have more impact on DOD and the U.S. Space Force. The Administration is requesting a historic funding increase in FY2027, taking DOD to $1.5 trillion. Of that, $1.15 trillion is in the base budget request and the rest is intended to be included in a reconciliation bill, which can pass the Senate with a simple majority instead of 60 votes. Most of the funding for the Golden Dome missile defense project is in the reconciliation bill. The current Republican House and Senate leadership will have to decide if they want to focus on trying to pass that bill in the remaining weeks of this Congress. Many Democrats are skeptical of the cost and feasibility of Golden Dome so its future once they take control in January is unclear. A significant increase for the Space Force is included in the request: a total of $71 billion, of which $12 billion is in the reconciliation bill.

This Congress still has to finish work on FY2027 appropriations, never mind reconciliation.  None of the 12 appropriations bills have cleared Congress yet. The government is operating under a Continuing Resolution that expires on December 11. An extension of that into next year wouldn’t be surprising. Congress also hasn’t passed the FY2027 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), the one piece of legislation that has been enacted every year since the first in 1961. The NDAA passed both the House and Senate Armed Services Committees on a bipartisan basis, but a number of Democrats opposed it. The House narrowly passed the NDAA in July, but Democrats blocked Senate consideration because of the war in Iran and the lack of agreement on top-line funding for both defense and non-defense.

In short, there is a lot of work yet to do in the 119th Congress with Republicans still in control as Democrats prepare to take over next year.  The House and Senate schedules currently show Congress completing work on December 17 (House) and December 18 (Senate), but that is subject to change.

Picking party leaders and committee chairs for the 120th Congress will happen in coming weeks. House and Senate Republicans reportedly will choose their leaders next week and Democrats the week after. Jockeying for top committee slots is already underway.  Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-CA) announced this morning that she’s seeking the chairmanship of the House Science, Space, and Technology Committee. She’s currently the Ranking Member (top Democrat).