Author: Marcia Smith

NRC Lukewarm About NASA's Proposed Space Radiation Cancer Risk Model

NRC Lukewarm About NASA's Proposed Space Radiation Cancer Risk Model

The National Research Council (NRC) issued a report today evaluating changes NASA is proposing to make on how it estimates the risk that astronauts could develop cancer because of exposure to radiation in space.   The report concluded that the proposed changes are better than the current model NASA is using, but still needs improvements.

The study committee, chaired by R. Julian Preston of the Environmental Protection Agency, assessed changes NASA is proposing to its current model for estimating the risk of radiation-induced cancer in astronauts.   The existing model was most recently updated in 2005.  Last year NASA proposed changes based on new findings from a number of sources. 

Overall, the NRC committee concluded that the proposed changes represent the state-of-the-art, but  “There remains a need for additional data to be developed to enhance the current approach and to reduce uncertainty in the model.”

The committee complained that “NASA’s proposed model and associated uncertainties are complex” and “require a very clear and precise set of descriptions,” that were not provided in NASA’s published report.  Thus, the committee found it difficult to review, and while it asked NASA for clarifications throughout its deliberations, not all of the ambiguities were resolved.

“The overall evaluation of the committee is that NASA’s proposed model represents a definite improvement over the previous one. However, the committee urges that the necessary improvements identified by the specific recommendations provided [herein] be incorporated before the proposed integrated model is implemented.”

 

 

 

 

Zak: Phobos-Grunt Doomed by Computer Design, Testing Flaws, Not U.S. Radar

Zak: Phobos-Grunt Doomed by Computer Design, Testing Flaws, Not U.S. Radar

The Russian commission investigating the failure of the Phobos-Grunt (Phobos-soil) Mars mission concluded that computer design error and insufficient testing were the reasons the probe never left Earth orbit, not interference from a U.S. radar according to Anatoly Zak at RussianSpaceWeb.com.  Zak summarizes the commission’s findings on his website today.   Russia’s news agency Itar-Tass reported over the weekend that the findings would  be presented to Russia’s space agency director yesterday and made public this week, but neither it nor other leading Russian media sources have published anything yet today.

Zak reports on his website that the “most probable cause … was a simultaneous robooting of two operational processors in the main computer….  The computers could crash as a result of errors in their software or as a result of some external reasons, such as electromagnetic incompatibility, industry sources said.  The mentioning of this last point … apparently became a basis for numerous reports in the Russian press blaming the failure on various improbable external reasons, such as foreign radars or solar flares.”

“Foreign radars” refers to assertions by some Russian officials that a U.S. radar based in the Marshall Islands inadvertently damaged Phobos-Grunt while it was being used to study asteroids and the orbiting spacecraft passed through the beam.  Yuri Koptev, former head of the Russian space agency who chaired the commission investigating the Phobos-Grunt failure, said that his group would conduct an experiment to prove or disprove the theory.

Zak reports that tests were conducted by NPO Lavochkin, which manufactured Phobos-Grunt, to determine if the computer could have been affected “by interference from the probe’s own power supply or from unlikely external sources, such as a narrow powerful beam of a ground radar.  During these tests, the computer withstood all simulations without any problems.”

Therefore, “[w]ith all external failure scenarios effectively debunked, the most probable cause of the failure was narrowed down to the lack of integrated testing” of the computer, Zak states.

Events of Interest: Week of Jan. 30-Feb. 3, 2012

Events of Interest: Week of Jan. 30-Feb. 3, 2012

The following events may be of interest in the coming week.

During the Week:   The House and Senate are in session this week.   The World Radiocommunications Conference continues in Geneva, Switzerland.   The conclusions of the Russian commission that investigated the Phobos-Grunt failure are supposed to be made public this week.

Tuesday, January 31

Wednesday, February 1

  • Screening of film Article of Hope, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 10:00 am EST

Wednesday-Friday, February 1-3

Friday, February 3

More Russian Space Woes Likely to Delay Next ISS Crew Launch, Commercial Proton Launches

More Russian Space Woes Likely to Delay Next ISS Crew Launch, Commercial Proton Launches

Problems in Russia’s aerospace sector are still hampering its space program on which the United States and global commercial satellite companies increasingly rely.   The next Soyuz spacecraft slated to launch a crew to the International Space Station (ISS) apparently was damaged beyond repair during recent testing, while commercial Proton launches are on hold because of technical issues.

Last year, Russia experienced five launch failures, including a Soyuz rocket that was intended to send a Progress cargo spacecraft to the ISS.   A multi-week delay in launching a three-person ISS crew resulted as Russian experts worked to ensure that a very similar Soyuz rocket was indeed safe to take people into space.

The spacecraft that carries crew members is also named Soyuz, and on Friday Russia announced that the Soyuz spacecraft assigned for the next crew launch, expected on March 30, failed a test.  Anatoly Zak at RussianSpaceWeb.com reports today that Russian industry sources and the website Novosti Kosmonavtiki (Space News) are indicating that during testing the spacecraft was pressurized “up to 3 atmospheres, instead of the nominal 1.3-1.5 atmospheres….The bad quality of materials in the spacecraft…had also been suspected.  Another report surfaced on January 29, 2012 … that a welding line on the descent module had broken as a result of the internal pressure” and the “descent module was damaged beyond repair.”  Zak estimates that the next launch might be delayed until the end of April at the earliest if a decision is made to use a replacement descent module.

At the same time, a Proton rocket had to be rolled back from the launch pad days before launch for a second time.   Intended to launch a commercial communications satellite, SES-4 (or NSS-14), the launch was supposed to take place in December.  A day before before launch, a problem was detected that required the rocket to be removed from the pad for repair.  The launch was rescheduled for January 28, but once again had to be scrubbed.  This time it reportedly is a problem with a transit cable in the Proton’s first stage that will require partial disassembly of the vehicle per RussianSpaceWeb.com and the rocket again must be rolled back from the pad.  A new date for the SES-4 launch has not been announced. The date of the next commercial Proton launch, of a Sirius radio broadcasting satellite, is also in doubt.

Until recently, Russian rockets and spacecraft had a reputation for reliability.  The number of problems now surfacing raises serious questions about the health of the Russian aerospace industry just when the United States has become completely reliant on Russia to keep the ISS crewed.  The U.S. government’s decision to terminate the space shuttle last year with no U.S. system to replace it means that NASA must purchase services from Russia for crew transportation to and from the ISS and for providing a “lifeboat” capability so crews can escape in an emergency.   The commercial satellite sector also relies heavily on Russia’s commercial launch services.  In 2010, Russia conducted 13 commercial launches, compared to six for Europe’s Arianespace and four for the United States, according to The Space Report 2011.

Last month, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin appointed Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin to investigate the problems in the Russian space industry and determine solutions.  Russia’s space agency, Roscosmos, was due to report to Rogozin at the end of last week on the space industry’s challenges, but no stories have appeared in the Russia media yet to indicate that such meetings took place.   The commission investigating the failure of the Phobos-Grunt Mars mission also was supposed to issue its conclusions last week.  On January 26, Russia’s news agency Itar-Tass said the report was completed and would be submitted to Roscosmos director Vladimir Popovkin today (Sunday) and made public this coming week.

NRC Welcomes Suggestions for Committee Members-But Hurry

NRC Welcomes Suggestions for Committee Members-But Hurry

The National Research Council’s (NRC) Space Studies Board welcomes recommendations for members of three standing committees that are being formed, but suggestions must be submitted by close of business tomorrow, January 30, 2012.

In addition to the ad hoc study committees that the NRC creates to provide advice on particular topics, permanent standing committees also may be formed on broader subjects that provide a mechanism for ongoing interaction with members of various segments of the science and engineering communities.

The Space Studies Board (SBB) is currently forming or re-forming three of its standing committees:  the Committee on Astronomy and Astrophysics (joint with the NRC’s Board on Physics and Astronomy); the Committee on Astrobiology and Planetary Science (a merger of the SSB’s former Committee on the Origins and Evolution of Life and the Committee on Planetary and Lunar Exploration); and the Committee on Earth Sciences and Applications from Space (formerly the Committee on Earth Science).

More information on the role of standing committees at the NRC and how to send in your suggestions are on the SSB website under “Other News.”

Romney Shares Nothing New About Space, Wants Advice First

Romney Shares Nothing New About Space, Wants Advice First

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney added nothing new about his plans for the space program during a brief speech in Cape Canaveral, FL.

Romney repeated what he said during two primary debates on Monday and last night that he wants to hear advice from scientists, industrialists, defense experts and NASA before making any decisions.

Calling President Obama’s space program a failure, he asserted it was time to have a “vision for a space program for the people of the United States of America.”   If this was the politics of the past, he said, he would come to the Space Coast and promise billions of dollars and lay out what his mission is, “but I’m not going to do that.”  Referring to his experience in the private sector, he said that before making tough decisions, work has to be done in terms of defining objectives, getting data and hypotheses to determine the choices, and only then selecting an objective and finding a leader to deliver it.  His remark about promising billions of dollars appeared to be a swipe at his rival, Newt Gingrich, who make a speech on Wednesday doing just that.

He outlined what he sees as four objectives of the space program, calling each of them a “critical priority”:   the “existential” objective of understanding the universe and its effects on the Earth, such as climate or the possibility of a “catastrophic event”; commercial; the health and well-being of citizens; and defense.   Collectively, those objectives make the space program “an integral part of America’s exceptionalism.”

Romney paid tribute to those lost in the space shuttle Challenger tragedy, which occurred 26 years ago tomorrow.  Saying that we must not forget the sacrifices made for the space program, he told the story of visiting a Boy Scout troop in Massachusetts a couple of years ago and hearing a story about the American flag sitting in the room.    The flag had first flown above the U.S. Capitol and then the troop decided they wanted it to fly on the space shuttle.   They arranged to do that and it flew on Challenger and the scouts watched the shuttle “explode before their very eyes.”  Later, the Troop Leader contacted NASA to determine if any remnants of the flag survived.   After many months, the flag was returned “in perfect condition” although some medallions that had been in the container next to it were melted and fused together.  He said “it was like electricity” when he touched the flag, thinking of the sacrifices that made been made.

Most of the rest of the speech, which lasted only about 15 minutes, was standard campaign fare.

As reported here earlier today, a letter in support of Romney was posted on the candidate’s website today from a group of well known space policy veterans.  The group is led by Scott Pace, Director of George Washington University’s Space Policy Institute, who is identified in the letter as head of Romney’s space policy advisory group.   Others who signed include former NASA Administrator Mike Griffin and former astronauts Gene Cernan and Bob Crippen.

Romney's Turn to Lay Out Space Goals; Scott Pace Heading Romney's Space Policy Team-UPDATE

Romney's Turn to Lay Out Space Goals; Scott Pace Heading Romney's Space Policy Team-UPDATE

UPDATEFlorida Today says it will cover Romney’s visit to Astrotech live, and is already running video apparently from that location.

Mitt Romney’s website still has him scheduled to appear at the Astrotech facility in Cape Canaveral, FL this afternoon at 4:45 pm ET where he is expected to expand on his plans for the space program if he is elected.  Meanwhile, a letter posted on Romney’s website reveals that Scott Pace is heading his space policy advisory team.

Last night at the CNN Florida Republican presidential primary debate in Jacksonville, all four Republican presidential candidates, including Romney, were given an opportunity to expound about the space program.  Romney’s current chief opponent in the race, Newt Gingrich, presented his bold plan for space — including a lunar base by 2020 — at a speech on Wednesday.   Last night, a member of audience asked what the candidates’ plans were for “manned space flight and the future of NASA” and moderator Wolf Blitzer expanded the question to bring in views about Gingrich’s lunar base proposal.

Romney called it “an enormous expense.”   Saying he believes “in a very vibrant and strong space program” and wants to bring together experts to advise him about it, he cautioned that he is “not looking for a colony on the moon.  I think the cost of that would be in the hundreds of billions if not trillions.  I’d rather be rebuilding housing here in the U.S.”

This afternoon’s event is listed on his website as scheduled for 4:45-6:00 pm at Astrotech’s facility at 620 Magellan Road, Cape Canaveral.  Edward Ellegood of Florida Space Report tweeted that he expects Romney to introduce some of the experts he plans to consult. 

The Romney campaign may have tipped its hand already, posting a letter of support from some well known players in the space policy arena.  The authors of the letter assert that Romney will “restore America’s space program.”  The letter was signed by Scott Pace, Director of George Washington University’s Space Policy Institute and who served as a NASA Associate Administrator under former NASA Administrator Mike Griffin.  Griffin also signed the letter.   Pace is identified as “chair of the Romney Space Policy Advisory Group” and interestingly does not mention his NASA service, but notes his earlier tenure at the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy.   Others who signed are Mark Albrecht, former Executive Director of the White House National Space Council under the first President Bush; former astronauts Gene Cernan and Bob Crippen; Peter Marquez, formerly on the staff of the White House National Security Council under the second President Bush and in the early years of the Obama Administration (he is credited with pulling together President Obama’s National Space Policy); Eric Anderson of Space Adventures; and William Martel from Tufts University.   

 

Soyuz Descent Module Fails Testing; ISS Launches May Be Delayed

Soyuz Descent Module Fails Testing; ISS Launches May Be Delayed

Russia’s news agency Itar-Tass reports today that the descent module of the next Soyuz spacecraft scheduled for launch to the International Space Station (ISS) experienced a failure during testing.   Initial Russian media reports said that future flights to the ISS would be delayed, but a more recent report says that no decisions have been made yet.

The Itar-Tass story posted at 15:15 today quotes Russian space agency (Roscosmos) official Alexei Krasnov as disputing earlier Russian media reports that the Soyuz TMA–04M launch would be delayed for several weeks from its current launch date of March 30.  He agreed that problems did occur during a test in an altitude test chamber at the Energia Space Rocket Corporation, but that it was a problem with a “service element” and not the descent capsule itself. 

Krasnov was quoted as saying “The deformation of a service system was detected. The committee was formed and is investigating how seriously the malfunction was: whether it was a material defect or technologies. Probably, next week some decisions will be taken.”   He did not dispute that a schedule delay might result, but downplayed the significance of such a slip.

The three ISS crewmembers scheduled to be launched on Soyuz TMA-04M are Russians Gennady Padakla and Sergei Rivin and NASA astronaut Joseph Acaba.     

Remembering the Nation's Fallen Astronauts

Remembering the Nation's Fallen Astronauts

Today is NASA’s Day of Remembrance, honoring the astronauts who lost their lives in the cause of space exploration.

The nation’s three human spaceflight tragedies occurred years apart, but on days very close to each other.  NASA commemorates all three on a single day.

On January 27, 1967, the Apollo 204 fire took the lives of the first Apollo crew.  Virgil “Gus” Grissom, Ed White, and Roger Chaffee were killed when fire swept through the 100 percent oxygen atmosphere of their Apollo capsule during a ground test.  The origin of the spark that started the fire was never definitively determined, but was thought to be from electrical arcing.  If launched, it would have been called Apollo 1, but is more commonly referred to as Apollo 204.

On January 28, 1986, the seven crew members of space shuttle Challenger (STS 51-L) were killed when an O-ring in one of the solid rocket boosters failed and caused a catastrophic explosion 73 seconds after launch.   NASA astronauts Dick Scobee, Mike Smith, Judy Resnik, Ellison Onizuka and Ron McNair, together with “teacher in space” Christa McAuliffe and Hughes Aircraft payload specialist Greg Jarvis, died.

On February 1, 2003, the space shuttle Columbia (STS-107) disintegrated as it returned from a two-week mission in space as the orbiter was torn apart by aerodynamic forces after superheated air (plasma) entered one of its wings through a hole and deformed it.   The hole was created by debris falling from the External Tank during launch.  NASA astronauts Rick Husband, William McCool, Michael Anderson, David Brown, Kalpana Chawla, and Laurel Clark, along with Israeli payload specialist Ilan Ramon, were killed.  

Today, President Obama issued a statement saying that “it is our duty to honor them the way they would have wanted to be honored — by focusing our sights on the next horizon.”

NASA Administrator Charles Bolden, himself a former space shuttle astronaut, released a video message and paid tribute to the crews at memorials to them at Arlington National Cemetery.  A wreath-laying ceremony also took place at Kennedy Space Center.

Santorum Cancels Space Coast Visit, but Romney Still On–UPDATE

Santorum Cancels Space Coast Visit, but Romney Still On–UPDATE

UPDATE (Jan. 26, 2012, 7:20 pm ET):    Edward Ellegood @FLspacereport tweets that the Romney visit to Astrotech will now be at 4:45 pm ET tomorrow instead of 3:00. 

ORIGINAL STORY:  Rick Santorum, one of Newt Gingrich’s rivals for the Republican presidential nomination, has canceled his scheduled appearance on Saturday at the Space Coast Tiger Bay luncheon according to Florida Today.  Another rival, Mitt Romney, still plans to visit Cape Canaveral tomorrow, however.

Gingrich visited the area yesterday and laid out his bold plans for the future of the space program.  He and Romney had previewed their visions for space activities during the Republican primary debate on Monday.  Santorum and Ron Paul, the fourth candidate remaining in the contest, were not asked about space during that debate, but Santorum had been expected to share his views at Saturday’s event.     Florida Today quotes a Santorum campaign volunteer as saying only that she was notifed Santorum would be out of town and unable to attend the luncheon.

Meanwhile, Romney will visit Astrotech in Cape Canaveral at 3:00 pm ET tomorrow, Florida Today reports.  The event is open to the public. 

Another Republican presidential primary debate is scheduled for tonight in Jacksonville, FL at 8:00 pm ET.  It will be carried on CNN.  The Florida Republican primary will be held on January 31.