The International Space Station (ISS) management team is preparing contingency plans in the wake of the failure of Russia’s Progress M-12M spacecraft to reach orbit last week. Under one set of assumptions, it might be necessary to operate the ISS without a crew beginning in November.

The Progress M12-M cargo-carrying spacecraft was aboard a Soyuz rocket that is very similar to the type used to launch Russia’s crew-carrying Soyuz spacecraft. Thus, the Soyuz rocket failure affects launches of both crews on Soyuz spacecraft and cargo on Progress spacecraft.

NASA’s ISS program manager, Mike Suffredini, said at a press conference today that the return of three of the current ISS crew members probably will be delayed for a week, to mid-September, because the launch of the next Soyuz spacecraft with their replacements is delayed indefinitely. Russia’s Itar-Tass news agency reported that Russia’s space agency, Roscosmos, said it would be September 16. The next Soyuz crew launch had been scheduled for September 21 CDT (September 22 at the launch site).

Russia continues to investigate what caused the third stage of the Soyuz U rocket to fail during ascent. Progress M-12M (called “Progress 44” by NASA because it is the 44^th to go to the ISS), filled with cargo for the ISS, crashed into a remote area of Siberia. Russia continues to search for remains of the spacecraft, but bad weather and difficult terrain have slowed those efforts. Russia announced today that they would increase the number of aircraft involved in the search, but they expect that the spacecraft broke into many pieces.

Until more is known about the failure, the Russians cannot set a date for launching the next ISS crew. However, Itar-Tass said that preparations are continuing for the possible launch of the next Progress spacecraft – Progress M-13M – in October.

With the termination of the U.S. space shuttle, Russia’s Soyuz spacecraft is the only way to get crews to and from the ISS. Suffredini stressed that the six crew members aboard the ISS are in no danger. The Soyuz spacecraft that are needed to bring them back to Earth are already attached to the ISS, and the ISS was thoroughly stocked with supplies by the final space shuttle mission, STS-135, last month.

However, the Soyuz spacecraft that are attached to the ISS have a limited on-orbit lifetime, approximately 200-210 days. For safety reasons, there can only be as many crew aboard ISS as can be returned to Earth in an emergency. Each Soyuz spacecraft has three seats, and with two docked at the ISS, that allows six crew members to be aboard.

With the roughly 6-month orbital lifetime of a Soyuz spacecraft, crews therefore rotate on a 6-month schedule, and the lifetimes of the two Soyuz that are attached are ending.

Other considerations are ensuring that landings can take place in daylight, which is dictated by orbital dynamics, and to not plan landings during the winter when weather conditions in the landing area are problematical at best. With all of those considerations, the ISS management team is currently planning to return three of the crew in mid-September and the other three in mid-November.

Thus, how many crew – if any – will be aboard the ISS after that is dependent on when Russia can certify that the Soyuz rocket is ready to launch a crew. Suffredini said that if the Soyuz is not flying by mid-November, the ISS would have to be destaffed. NASA has continually warned about problems that could develop if the ISS is left in an unoccupied condition for a lengthy period. Suffredini reiterated that today.

These contingency plans could also impact the scheduled test flight of SpaceX’s Dragon spacecraft. NASA and SpaceX are considering combining SpaceX’s next two test flights such that the next Falcon 9/Dragon mission would involve berthing Dragon to the ISS. However, a crew needs to be aboard ISS to conduct the berthing operation using the Remote Manipulator System. Without a crew, that operation could not take place. November 30 is the currently planned date for the SpaceX launch.

The key is what went wrong with the Soyuz rocket last week. Until Russia makes that determination and fixes it, the fate of ISS operations will be in limbo.

UPDATE: Here is a link to a YouTube video of Griffin’s remarks in Huntsville. Thanks to the reader who sent it in.

Former NASA Administrator Mike Griffin has put down in writing what he was reported as saying during a panel session in Huntsville last week.

In an op-ed for today’s Space News, Griffin blasts the Obama Administration’s handling of the U.S. human spaceflight program. He accuses President Obama of having no interest in human spaceflight until during his campaign for President he “realized that he had to win Florida” and “changed his tune.” Thus it should be no surprise, Griffin argues, that, once elected, Obama cancelled the Constellation program and has repeatedly ignored laws passed by Congress to build a new Space Launch System (SLS) and Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) instead.

Griffin initiated the Constellation program during his tenure as NASA Administrator under President George W. Bush to implement Bush’s Vision for Space Exploration. Its goal was to return humans to the Moon by 2020 and someday send them to Mars. President Obama proposed cancelling Constellation in February 2010. Following months of intense debate, Congress agreed, but only after Obama agreed to replace it with the SLS/MPCV program.

Griffin attacks virtually every aspect of Obama Administration’s management of the human spaceflight program, especially what he calls a “smear campaign” against SLS. Charging that the Administration “is focused on killing human spaceflight by the death of a thousand cuts,” he nevertheless hails “some true heroes at NASA who are clearly focused on affordability and sustainability” and “should be commended for their innovation and their approach, which is closer to what Congress approved and the president signed into law.”

Griffin was quoted by the Huntsville Times last week as making similar comments during a panel discussion moderated by Huntsville mayor Tommy Battle. Griffin is currently Eminent Scholar and Professor in Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering at the University of Alabama, Huntsville.

In his op-ed, Griffin icily rejects a claim published in the Orlando Sentinel that the SLS would cost $38 billion. Although the headline of that Orlando Sentinel article did assert that $38 billion “could be” the cost for the “new moon rocket,” the text of the story was about SLS and MPCV combined. Regardless, Griffin claims that such data would be available only to NASA’s leadership and releasing it was an example of “the tiresome Washington game of leaking a highly biased story in order to set the terms for an upcoming debate.” He ends his commentary by saying “Let the games begin.”

The Senate has subpoenaed NASA documents relating to the SLS program because NASA has not provided them voluntarily. The House Appropriations Committee marked up the FY2012 appropriations bill that includes NASA in July and increased the amount of funds that would be available for SLS and MPCV compared to what the President requested. It cut the amount for the commercial crew program that the Obama Administration champions. The full House has not acted on the bill yet, nor has the Senate.

If the next launch of Russia’s Soyuz spacecraft is delayed too long, the International Space Station (ISS) could be “abandoned in November” according to Spaceflightnow.com’s headline.

The website quotes ISS program manager Mike Sufferdini as saying that “Logistically, we can support [operations] almost forever, but eventually if we don’t see the Soyuz spacecraft, we’ll probably going [sic] to unmanned ops before the end of the year.”

With the space shuttle program terminated, Russia’s Soyuz spacecraft — launched by the Soyuz launch vehicle — is the only way to get crews back and forth to ISS. A Soyuz launch vehicle boosting a Progress cargo spacecraft (with no one aboard) failed last week. There are several variants of the Soyuz launch vehicle. Russia is investigating what happened and what effect it will have on other launches involving the Soyuz launch vehicle.

Sufferdini is due to give a press briefing tomorrow morning at 9:00 am CDT (10:00 am EDT) that will be aired on NASA TV.

As Hurricane Irene’s rains begin here in the Washington DC suburbs, thought it would be good to post this now is case we lose electricity as everyone is forecasting. This last week of Washington’s summer break is quiet in terms of meetings, but here are the ones we know about. Hope all of you in Irene’s path weather the storm safely. I hope to be posting to Twitter from time to time at least. Follow me @SpcPlcyOnline

Monday, August 29

• NASA press conference on impact of Progress launch failure on International Space Station operations, 10:00 am EDT (9:00 am CDT), watch on NASA TV
  

Monday-Wednesday, August 29-31

• National Research Council Solar and Space Physics (Heliophysics) Decadal Survey steering committee, Irvine, CA (this meeting is closed in its entirety).

Tuesday-Thursday, August 30-September 1

• VEGAX meeting and Venus Science Conference, Smiithsonian Udvar-Hazy Center, Chantilly, VA

Wednesday, August 31

• NASA Advisory Council Earth Science Subcommittee meeting, 1:00-3:00 pm EDT, via telecon

Mike Sufferdini, NASA’s program manager for the International Space Station (ISS) program, will provide an ISS update on Monday and discuss the impact of the launch failure of Russia’s Progress cargo spacecraft last week.

The briefing will be at 10:00 am EDT (9:00 am CDT). It will be broadcast on NASA TV.

The launch failure is of concern not only because the cargo that was intended for ISS was lost, but because the Soyuz launch vehicle that failed is also used for launching crews to the ISS on Soyuz spacecraft. Sufferdini’s press conference will address the status of Russia’s investigation of the accident.

Politicians on both sides of the debate over the future of the U.S. human spaceflight program have used the Progress launch failure to press their respective cases.

The launch failure of Russia’s Progress cargo ship destined for the International Space Station (ISS) provided fuel for politicians on both sides of the debate over the future of the U.S. human spaceflight program.

Senators Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) and Richard Shelby (R-AL) used it to argue the criticality of the U.S. developing its own national capabilities to deliver cargo to the ISS. Both Senators champion NASA development of a new rocket, the Space Launch System, and crew module, the Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle. Although the main purpose of that system is taking astronauts beyond low Earth orbit, it would be a backup capability for supplying the ISS if commercial cargo and commercial crew systems do not materialize. The two Senators are skeptics of the commercial initiative and want NASA to develop a new system.

Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA), on the other hand, is an enthusiastic promoter of commercial crew and cargo. He used the failure to call on NASA Administrator Charlie Bolden to “propose an emergency transfer of funding from unobligated balances in other programs, including the Space Launch System, to NASA’s commercial crew initiative.” Rohrabacher wants to accelerate and possibly expand the efforts of the companies working on commercial crew.

Russia is continuing to investigate yesterday’s launch failure. Progress was launched by the usually reliable Soyuz rocket. That rocket is used for launches of many other Russian spacecraft — including the crew-carrying Soyuz capsules — but there are several versions of it. Russian space officials announced that a planned launch of a navigation satellite from its Plesetsk cosmodrome using a different variant of the rocket would be postponed until more is known about the failure.

Although there are not likely to be immediate impacts of the launch failure on ISS crew, which was recently resupplied by STS-135, it does highlight the operational risks of discontinuing the space shuttle program. Except for the 29 months that the space shuttle stood down after the 2003 Columbia tragedy, the ISS has been able to rely on a robust set of international spacecraft to bring crews and supplies.

NASA’s Office of Inspector General (OIG) has found no evidence of political influence or other improper consideration in the choice of locations for the four space shuttle orbiters.

In a report released today. the OIG said that while NASA Administrator Charlie Bolden was “subject to a great deal of pressure from Members of Congress and other interested parties,” it found “no evidence” that it affected his ultimate decisions. “Moreover, we found no attempt by White House officials to direct or influence Bolden’s decision making” and the NASA process was “consistent with applicable Federal law.”

Some congressional delegations, especially from Texas, home NASA’s Johnson Space Center and the astronaut corps, were extremely upset by the decision not to locate one of the orbiters there. The four remaining orbiters are scheduled to be placed on display in these four locations:

• Discovery, National Air and Space Museum Udvar-Hazy Center (replacing the Enterprise which is there now), outside Washington DC
• Enterprise, Intrepid Sea, Air and Space Museum, New York City
• Endeavour, California Science Center, Los Angeles
• Atlantis, Kennedy Space Center, FL

The OIG did criticize NASA for managing the process as though it was a competitive procurement, and for taking so long to make its decision and announce the winners, however.

NASA’s next lunar mission, GRAIL, is getting ready to launch.

The Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory (GRAIL) twin spacecraft are scheduled for launch on September 8 aboard a Delta II from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, FL.

The two spacecraft will orbit the Moon to study its interior structure and map the Moon’s gravity field. NASA will hold a prelaunch press conference on September 6 at 1:00 pm EDT that will be carried live on NASA TV.

Launch is scheduled for September 8 at 8:37 am EDT. A second launch window is at 9:16 am EDT. Other launch times are possible through October 19 if necessary.