Braun: Launch, Risk Tolerance Key Factors in Space Science Mission Costs

As NASA’s space science program faces an uncertain funding future, the director of one of the country’s top space science laboratories cites lower launch costs, higher risk tolerance for robotic missions, and technological advancements as factors that could help the balance sheet. But keeping a steady cadence of competed missions in the Discovery and New Frontiers series is critical for the planetary science ecosystem.

President Trump has not sent his FY2026 budget request to Congress yet, but rumors are swirling that NASA’s science program will be among the targets for cuts as part of DOGE’s sweeping government-reduction efforts.

Speaking to the Space Transportation Association on Capitol Hill today, Robert “Bobby” Braun, head of the space exploration sector at the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Lab (APL), offered examples of ways to reduce space science mission costs.

The advent of very small satellites and rockets that can launch many of them at a time are one way.  APL launched its Electrojet Zeeman Imaging Explorer (EZIE) mission of three cubesats last week on SpaceX’s Falcon 9 Transporter-13 mission along with more than 70 other payloads. EZIE’s launch cost was in the $1-2 million range.

EZIE is at the small end of space science missions, but even flagship missions can save money thanks to the ongoing space launch revolution. Braun mentioned Europa Clipper as one of the missions that saw cost savings by changing to a rocket that didn’t even exist at the time the program started. Managed by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), APL was a key Clipper partner.

Congress originally required that Clipper launch on NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS) rocket. The Office of Management and Budget estimated it would cost $2 billion. Congress was finally persuaded to drop the requirement for a variety of reasons and the $5.2 billion spacecraft, the largest and heaviest NASA planetary spacecraft built so far, launched on a SpaceX Falcon Heavy for $178 million. It will take twice as long to get to Jupiter where it will study Jupiter’s moon Europa, but that is one of the trade-offs that can be made.

Accepting more risk is another trade-off. Unlike human spaceflight missions where people’s lives are at stake, the failure of a robotic mission would be “a problem for NASA, that’s not easy for people to stomach,” but no one would die. “If we’re not taking risks in our robotic missions, then when are we taking risks?”  APL trades “technical risk against cost and schedule all the time.”  Reducing technical risk means “cost is going to go up and the schedule is going to slow.” The tolerable level of risk is different for a $10 billion mission like the James Webb Space Telescope versus a Discovery-class mission in the $500 million range, but “sometimes we forget” that robotic missions don’t need to meet the same risk standards as those with people aboard.

Technological advancements are another important ingredient. APL’s Parker Solar Probe now orbiting the Sun closer than any other spacecraft was unaffordable for decades because of the need to protect the spacecraft and its instruments from the 2,500 degree heat of the Sun.  Braun pointed to advancements in heat shield technology through DOD’s hypersonics program that enabled the mission along with spacecraft autonomy. The probe made its closest approach to the Sun on December 24, 2024 operating entirely autonomously. The trajectory and orientation had to be precise — within half a degree in orientation — or the heat shield wouldn’t have functioned properly.

“The level of accuracy and fidelity of this system, frankly, even to me, someone who’s worked on a number of planetary missions, it’s remarkable, and to have done all that within cost and schedule, as predicted by the team in advance … makes it even more astounding.”

Braun later announced that today the National Aeronautic Association awarded the NASA-APL Parker Solar Probe team the coveted Collier Trophy for 2024.

Founded during World War II to support the U.S. Navy, APL is a University Affiliated Research Center (UARC). The Navy continues to be its biggest sponsor and defense programs overall are a major focus. DOD and NASA space programs comprise only 25 percent of their work. Braun said APL only began engaging with NASA in the early 1990s when the agency began competing mission opportunities through the Discovery and New Frontiers programs.

Among the NASA missions managed by APL in addition to Parker Solar Probe are the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) that deliberately crashed into the moon of an asteroid as a planetary defense test; New Horizons, which flew past Pluto and now is sailing through the Kuiper Belt at the edge of the Solar System; MESSENGER, which orbited Mercury for four years; and NEAR, the first spacecraft to orbit and land on an asteroid.

Next up is Dragonfly, a dual-quadcopter that will fly over the dunes and seas of Saturn’s moon Titan. Dragonfly will go through its mission Critical Design Review (CDR) next month. Braun said “this team is fully on track to deliver Dragonfly within its approved cost and schedule including the launch in July 2028.”

Beyond that, much will depend on what level of funding NASA gets. NASA’s science program already is struggling because of cuts in FY2024 and with the passage of a full-year Continuing Resolution for FY2025, the situation has not improved. New missions in the Discovery and New Frontiers series are supposed to be competed at regular intervals, but existing constraints already are delaying selections never mind what the future holds.

Braun sees the delays in competitive planetary science opportunities as bad not only for APL, but JPL, NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, and all their industry and university partners. “I’m worried about the pace of competing missions. Significantly, it’s the pace of discovery. … This is America, right? Competition brings out the best ones. I think it’s very important to our entire ecosystem.”