Category: Civil

GAO Not Convinced by NASA's Latest JWST Cost Estimate

GAO Not Convinced by NASA's Latest JWST Cost Estimate

By Marcia Smith | Posted: December 3, 2012 12:00 am ET | Last Updated: December 3, 2012 4:46 pm ET

The Government Accountability Office (GAO) is giving NASA credit for taking steps in the right direction, but remains unconvinced that the most recent cost estimate is reliable.

In a report released today, GAO assessed the latest cost estimate — $8 billion for development plus $800 million for operations, for a total life cycle cost of $8.8 billion — against four characteristics that GAO seeks: comprehensive, well documented, accurate and credible.   NASA’s estimate meets the first of those “substantially,” but the other three only “partially,” GAO concluded. 

One criticism is that NASA “did not perform a sensitivity analysis that would have identified key drivers of costs, such as workforce size,” GAO said.  GAO is also worried about schedule reserves.   Whle project officials say there are 14 months of reserve, which meets Goddard’s requirements, GAO points out that only 7 of those months are likely to be available for the last three of five integration and test efforts when problems historically pop up.

GAO recommends that the NASA Administrator direct JWST officials to do the following:

  • “improve cost estimate documentation and continually update it to reflect earned value management actual costs and record any reasons for variances”;
  • “conduct a sensitivity analysis on the number of staff working on the program to determine how staff variations affect the cost estimate”;
  • “perform an updated integrated cost/schedule risk analysis, or joint cost and schedule confidence level analysis, using a schedule that meets best practices and includes enough detail so that risks can be appropriately mapped to activities and costs; historical analogous data should be used to support the risk analysis”;
  • “conduct a separate independent review prior to the beginning of the Optical Telescope Element and Integrated Science Instrument Module and spacecraft integration and test efforts to allow the project’s independent standing review board the opportunity to evaluate the readiness of the project to move forward, given the lack of schedule flexibility once these efforts are under way”;
  • “schedule the management review and approval to proceed to integration and test (key decision point D or KDP-D) prior to the start of observatory integration and test effort”; and
  • “devise an effective, long-term plan for project office oversight of its contractors that takes into consideration the anticipated travel budget restrictions.”
Last Updated: Dec 03, 2012 4:46 pm ET
Events of Interest: Week of December 2-7, 2012 — UPDATE 2

Events of Interest: Week of December 2-7, 2012 — UPDATE 2

By Marcia Smith | Posted: December 2, 2012 12:00 am ET | Last Updated: December 3, 2012 3:50 pm ET

UPDATE 2:  The NRC moved the release time of its NASA Strategic Directions report on Dec. 5 from 11:00 to 11:30 am ET and added a telephone news conference with its chair, Al Carnesale.   This article has been updated accordingly.

UPDATE:  Adds the Golden Spike Company Debut press conference on Dec. 6.

The following events may be of interest in the coming week.   The House and Senate are in session for at least part of the week.

During the Week

This is quite a busy week.  Among the highlights are the following:  

  • The American Geophysical Union (AGU) fall meeting takes place in San Francisco with a number of town hall meetings, public lectures and press conferences about discoveries from space science missions, including a public lecture today (Sunday) at noon PT (3:00 pm ET) and press conference on Monday (9:00 am PT; noon ET) about Mars Curiosity. Everyone wants to know what Curiosity did or did not find — not life, not organics, NASA’s now made that clear. 
  • The Senate is expected to complete debate on the FY2013 National Defense Authorization Act — on which at least three important amendments affecting NASA and export control policy are pending.  Debate began last Wednesday and they are hoping to wrap things up on Monday, though that depends on what deals could be made over this weekend to dispose of the hundreds of pending amendments.  Senators Hutchison and Nelson each have amendments to extend launch liability indemnification and give NASA another waiver from the Iran-North Korea-Syria Nonproliferation Act (the two would deal with that issue differently).  The Hutchison amendment also would require NASA to allocate money to the SLS/Orion program in FY2014 and FY2015 in the same proportion of the Exploration budget as in FY2013.  The Bennet amendment would ease export control regulations for commercial satellites.
  • On Monday, the Secure World Foundation will hold a panel discussion on space policy issues facing the Obama Administration in the second term.  (In the interest of full disclosure, I am one of the panelists.)
  • On Tuesday and Wednesday, two reports will be released with recommendations on NASA’s future. 
    • On Tuesday at 11:30 am ET, the Space Foundation will release its report PIONEERING:  Sustaining U.S. Leadership in Space, in 253 Russell Senate Office Building (note the time change, the briefing starts at 11:30 instead of noon; doors open at 11:00).
    • On Wednesday at 11:30 am ET the National Research Council will publicly release the report of its study committee on NASA’s Strategic Direction. (In the interest of full disclosure, I am a member of this committee and am posting this notice with NRC permission).
  • On Thursday, the 7th Eilene M. Galloway Symposium on Critical Issues in Space Law will be held at the Cosmos Club in Washington, DC.   This year’s topic is Regional and Global Space Organizations and Law, and the keynote speaker is NASA’s Associate Administrator for Human Exploration and Operations Bill Gerstenmaier.

And those are just some of the meetings.  The full list is below.  Note that the House Science, Space and Technology Committee’s hearing on NASA’s Strategic Direction that was scheduled for December 6 has been postponed because the House leadership decided late last week that the House will not be in session on Thursday.  A new date has not yet been announced.

Sunday, December 2

Monday, December 3

Tuesday, December 4

Wednesday, December 5

Thursday, December 6

Friday, December 7

Last Updated: Dec 03, 2012 3:50 pm ET
Nelson, Hutchison Differ on INKSNA Solution for NASA

Nelson, Hutchison Differ on INKSNA Solution for NASA

By Marcia Smith | Posted: December 2, 2012 12:00 am ET | Last Updated: December 2, 2012 6:53 pm ET

Senator Bill Nelson (D-FL) and Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX), long-standing partners on most issues concerning NASA programs, have amendments pending to the FY2013 National Defense Authorization Act (S. 3254) with different solutions to NASA’s need for a waiver from the Iran-North Korea-Syria Nonproliferation Act (INKSNA).  The Senate plans to resume debate on the bill tomorrow.

The purpose of INKSNA is to incentivize Russia to stop providing nuclear, chemical or biological weapons technologies to Iran, North Korea and Syria.   It is major issue, but many wonder how NASA got in the middle of it.

When the law was first passed in 2000 as the Iran Nonproliferation Act (INA) there were allegations that Russia’s space agency, then headed by Yuri Koptev, was violating the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR).  The MTCR is an international agreement that seeks to stem the transfer of ballistic missile technology. Getting Russia to adhere to it was one of the reasons the United States invited Russia to join the ISS program in the first place.  When the INA was being marked up by the House Science Committee in July 1999, then-chairman Jim Sensenbrenner (R-WI) said:  “Earlier this year, there were publications of the fact that entities of the Russian Space Agency were violating the MTCR.  That’s why there is Section 6 in this bill.”

Section 6 prohibits the U.S. government from making “extraordinary payments” to Russia related to ISS after January 1, 1999 unless the President determines and certifies to Congress that Russia is not transferring weapons of mass destruction or missile systems to Iran (or Syria or North Korea as the Act was later amended).  The term extraordinary payments is defined in section 7 (1) of the law (50 U.S.C. 1701).

The White House has not been willing to make that certification.   That is a problem for NASA because it needs certain services from Russia in order for the ISS program to continue, for example crew transportation and “lifeboat” services.   Consequently, NASA has required waivers from the law in order to enter into contracts with Russia for those services.   Congress agreed to pass waivers in 2005 and 2008.  The 2008 waiver allows NASA to contract for services that will be provided through July 1, 2016. 

With the decision to keep the ISS operating through 2020, however, NASA will require those services beyond 2016 and therefore needs another waiver.  Although some of the commercial crew companies say they will be ready to transport astronauts to the ISS by 2015 or 2016, NASA is planning on 2017, so needs to contract with Russia for additional crew transportation services.    It also is not clear if any of the U.S. commercial companies will be able to provide lifeboat services.  To do so, the spacecraft would have to designed to be able to remain docked to the ISS for many months, like Russia’s Soyuz, so crews can evacuate in an emergency.

The Hutchison amendment (SA 3078) would simply extend the time period and allow NASA to contract for services that would be provided through December 31, 2020.  The Nelson amendment (SA 3267), by contrast, would change the definition of “extraordinary payments” by deleting subsection (7(1)(B)) that applies to contracting for services after January 1, 1999.  Under his amendment, the U.S. government would be prohibited only from paying Russia for any work that Russia had previously agreed to provide at its expense (the first part of the definition).

The Nelson approach would solve the problem permanently, but the ongoing geopolitical situations with Iran and Syria may make it difficult to win support.  NASA is anxious to obtain the waiver soon because it estimates that it takes about three years to negotiate contracts with Russia and it then takes about 24 months to build Soyuz spacecraft.

Separately, both the Hutchison and Nelson amendments would extend third party launch liability indemnification for commercial launch service companies for two more years.  The Hutchison amendment also has a section that would require NASA to fund the SLS/Orion program in FY2014 and FY2015 at the same proportional level of the Exploration budget as those programs receive in FY2013.   The Nelson amendment does not address that issue.

The number of amendments to S. 3254 is currently up to 366, but Senators and their staffs were expected to work through this weekend to determine how many of those really need to be brought to the floor for debate.   The Senate is expected to resume debate on S. 3254 at 2:00 pm ET Monday.  The House passed its version of the bill in May.   Once it passes the Senate, the two will have to reach agreement on a final version.

 

Last Updated: Dec 02, 2012 6:53 pm ET
The Hill: FY2013 Appropriations Omnibus Could Surface Next Week

The Hill: FY2013 Appropriations Omnibus Could Surface Next Week

By Marcia Smith | Posted: December 1, 2012 12:00 am ET | Last Updated: December 1, 2012 8:19 am ET

In September, Congress passed a six-month Continuing Resolution (CR) funding the government through March 27, 2013 because none of the regular FY2013 appropriations bills would be completed before the start of the fiscal year on October 1.   The prevailing wisdom was that it was better to pass a long term CR that took the government through to next spring rather a short term bill that would require a lame duck Congress to deal with the issues after the election.  Top appropriators apparently are having second thoughts, however.

The Hill newspaper reports that the chairmen of the House and Senate Appropriations Committees are working on an omnibus FY2013 appropriations bill that could come to the House floor as early as next week.   Rep. Hal Rogers (R-KY) and Sen. Daniel Inouye (D-HI) reportedly have agreed on the top-line spending numbers for each of the 12 individual bills that would be combined into the omnibus.  The House has passed seven of the 12 already (including defense appropriations and the Commerce-Justice-Science appropriations bill that includes NASA and NOAA); the Senate has not passed any. 

Rogers is quoted by The Hill as saying negotiators have “a ways to go yet” and whether an omnibus actually reaches the floor is uncertain: “Whether or not there is going to be time on the floor, or we can muster enough interest in passing an omnibus … remains to be seen.”   Advocates of moving forward with an omnibus bill believe it would be better to have FY2013 appropriations settled before any across-the-board cuts are imposed by a sequester or whatever deal is struck on the “fiscal cliff.”

Last Updated: Dec 01, 2012 8:19 am ET
ESA-NASA Orion Service Module Deal is for Only Two Units

ESA-NASA Orion Service Module Deal is for Only Two Units

By Marcia Smith | Posted: November 30, 2012 12:00 am ET | Last Updated: January 16, 2013 12:58 pm ET

CLARIFICATION, JANUARY 16, 2013:   At a NASA-ESA press conference today, the details of the agreement were explained.  ESA is providing certain hardware for only one service module — for the first (uncrewed) flight of Orion in 2017 — plus spare parts.   If the spare parts are not needed, they will be used for the second Orion flight (with a crew) in 2021.

ORIGINAL STORY, NOVEMBER 20, 2012.  As announced last week, the European Space Agency will provide the service module for NASA’s Orion spacecraft to offset its share of operating costs for the International Space Station (ISS) in 2017-2020.   The agreement is only for two service module units, however, not an ongoing arrangement.

NASA Associate Administrator for Human Exploration and Operations Bill Gerstenmaier told the NASA Advisory Council (NAC) on Wednesday that ESA would build the service modules for Orion’s uncrewed test flight in 2017 and the first crewed mission in 2021.   NASA will get the intellectual property and build future service modules, he said, adding that no deal has been signed yet.  It must be approved through State Department channels, Gerstenmaier said, a process he hopes will be completed in December.

The arrangement was confirmed by Johann-Dietrich Woerner, Chairman of the Executive Board of the German Aerospace Center, at a Space Transportation Association meeting this morning.  Woerner stressed, however, that the current arrangement is limited to two because it is meant to offset ISS operating costs and does not mean future agreements might not involve additional units.  ESA might also find other uses for the module apart from the Orion program, he indicated.

ESA is using the design of its Automated Transfer Vehicle (ATV) to build the service module. ATV is a spacecraft that takes cargo to the ISS.  Three have been launched already and two more are planned.  Woerner was enthusiastic about the close cooperation that will be needed between European and American companies to integrate the service module with the rest of the Orion system.  EADS Astrium is ATV’s prime contractor, while Lockheed Martin is the prime contractor for Orion.

At a press conference last week, ESA Director General Jean-Jacques Dordain spoke excitedly about the prospect of ESA being allowed “in the critical path” of the next space transportation system that will take astronauts beyond low Earth orbit.  His sentiment was echoed by Woerner this morning.  

Historically, NASA has shied away from letting other countries into the critical path where NASA would be dependent on them to build systems without which a NASA mission could not succeed.   Although NASA and ESA have decades worth of cooperation — including on the space shuttle and the International Space Station — those projects could have proceeded if ESA withdrew for any reason.  The projects would have suffered, however.    ESA’s Spacelab modules that flew in the cargo bay of the space shuttle provided a shirt-sleeve environment for a broad array of research activities.  Its Columbus module and Cupola for the ISS are significant enhancements, but, strictly speaking, the ISS could exist without them. 

This is not the first time NASA has allowed a foreign country to be in the critical path of a major mission, however.   Russia’s participation in the ISS has been critical since it joined the partnership.   Russian-built modules formed the core of the ISS in the early days of construction.  Today, NASA is completely dependent on Russia for crew access to the ISS and for lifeboat services.  It is also difficult to imagine space shuttle or ISS crews achieving all that they have without Canada’s robotic arms, Canadarm and Canadarm2.

In any case, ESA clearly is ecstatic at reaching the agreement to build at least two Orion service modules.  Whether or not there will be more is an open question.

For the moment, however, ESA is in the critical path for the 2017 and 2021 Orion missions.  At the NAC meeting, Gerstenmaier said “Do they know how much I’m counting on them?  Yes, they do.”

Last Updated: Jan 16, 2013 12:58 pm ET
Incoming HSS&T Chairman Smith Will Be Innovation, Space Advocate

Incoming HSS&T Chairman Smith Will Be Innovation, Space Advocate

By Marcia Smith | Posted: November 29, 2012 12:00 am ET | Last Updated: November 29, 2012 12:21 pm ET

Rep. Lamar Smith (R-TX) says he will be “an advocate for America’s innovators” in his role as the new chair of the House Science, Space and Technology (HSS&T) Committee in the 113th Congress.

Smith was formally chosen by the House Republican Conference to succeed Rep. Ralph Hall (R-TX) as committee chair after being recommended by the House Republican steering committee on Tuesday.   Hall must relinquish his chairmanship because of House Republican terms limits, just as Smith must give up the reins of the House Judiciary Committee, which he currently chairs.

In a statement, Smith said he would “promote legislation that encourages scientific discoveries, space exploration, and the application of new technologies to expand our economy and create jobs for American workers.”

Hall released a statement as well congratulating Smith.  Both are members of the Texas delegation.   Hall said Smith has been “a consistent and unwavering advocate for American space leadership and promoting technological advancements through research” and will be “an excellent chairman.”  

Last Updated: Nov 29, 2012 12:21 pm ET
JPL Clarifies Curiosity's Lack of Historic Discovery So Far

JPL Clarifies Curiosity's Lack of Historic Discovery So Far

By Marcia Smith | Posted: November 29, 2012 12:00 am ET | Last Updated: November 29, 2012 11:22 pm ET

The Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) issued a press release today clarifying that the Mars Curiosity rover has not, in fact, made a historic discovery at this early stage of its expedition.  The clarification follows a week of speculation that a major announcement would be made soon.

The confusion began with a November 20 story on National Public Radio where Curiosity principal investigator John Grotzinger was quoted as dropping a tantalizing hint that recent results from the analysis of Mars samples by Curiosity’s SAM instrument would be “one for the history books.”   The comment sparked a frenzy of speculation as to what Curiosity might have found.

Stories surfaced on Mashable and Slate yesterday, however, explaining that Grotzinger was referring to the expectation that Curiosity would make historic findings over the course of its 2-year mission, not that something has been discovered already.

The confusion was reborn later in the day when news reports appeared quoting JPL Director Charles Elachi as telling an Italian university audience on Wednesday that “[p]erhaps Curiosity has found simple organic molecules….It’s preliminary data that must be checked (on) organic, not biological, molecules.”

Today, JPL, which is operated by the California Institute of Technology (CalTech) under contract to NASA, issued a statement saying that  “[r]umors and speculation that there are major new findings from the mission at this early stage are incorrect.”  Later it adds that “[a]t this point in the mission, the instruments on the rover have not detected any definitive evidence of Martian organics.” 

The fall meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU) is often the venue for announcements of new scientific findings about the Earth and other solar system bodies.  This year’s AGU meeting will be held next week in San Francisco and a press conference on Curiosity is scheduled for Monday morning at 9:00 am Pacific Standard Time (12:00 noon Eastern Standard Time).  It will be streamed at http://www.ustream.tv/nasajpl.  At that time, everyone will know what has been discovered, or not.

 

Last Updated: Nov 29, 2012 11:22 pm ET
Senate Debating NDAA, Including ITAR, INKSNA, Launch Liability, and SLS/Orion Funding Amendments

Senate Debating NDAA, Including ITAR, INKSNA, Launch Liability, and SLS/Orion Funding Amendments

By Marcia Smith | Posted: November 29, 2012 12:00 am ET | Last Updated: November 29, 2012 3:16 pm ET

The Senate resumed debate today on the FY2013 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), S. 3254, which authorizes funding and sets policy for the Department of Defense (DOD), military construction, and military activities of the Department of Energy.   Floor consideration began yesterday.  The House passed its version in May.

Some of the 263 (at last count) proposed amendments would affect space activities and not necessarily only national security space activities.  With few pieces of legislation expected to clear Congress for the rest of this year, the NDAA is being used as a vehicle to deal with a multitude of issues.

Senate Amendment (SA) 3078, for example, introduced by Sen. Hutchison (R-TX), has three major components:

  • extend third party launch liability indemnification from December 31, 2012 to December 31, 2014, in line with a House bill passed earlier this month;
  • extend the waiver from the Iran, North Korea, Syria Nonproliferation Act (INKSNA) from July 1, 2016 to December 31, 2020 that NASA needs in order to enter into new agreements with Russia for International Space Station operations ; and
  • require NASA to fund the Space Launch System and Orion and related ground systems and technology developments in FY2014 and FY2015 at the same proportional levels of the Exploration account as in FY2013.

One complication in the third provision is that the FY2013 funding level is not yet known.  The government, including NASA, is operating on a Continuing Resolution (CR) until March 27, 2013 at FY2012 funding levels.

Senator Bennet (D-CO), along with Sen. Warner (D-VA) and Sen. Rubio (R-FL) introduced SA 3179, the much anticipated Senate amendment to relax export controls for commercial satellites.   The House-passed version of the NDAA adopted language restoring to the President the authority to determine whether satellites are governed by the State Department’s Munitions List and its International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR), or the Department of Commerce’s dual-use Commerce Control List.  It would still prohibit satellite exports to China.  The language of the Bennet amendment is different from its House counterpart, but the goal is the same — to loosen export controls on commercial satellites to make them more competitive on the global market without endangering U.S. national security.

 

Last Updated: Nov 29, 2012 3:16 pm ET
FAS Succeeds in Getting NGA To Release Unclassified Paper on History of Remote Sensing Satellites

FAS Succeeds in Getting NGA To Release Unclassified Paper on History of Remote Sensing Satellites

By Marcia Smith | Posted: November 29, 2012 12:00 am ET | Last Updated: November 29, 2012 5:46 pm ET

It took three years, but Steve Aftergood at the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) finally succeeded in liberating a very useful history of U.S. civilian remote sensing satellites written by Jim Vedda for the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA).

Vedda, a veteran space policy analyst who is currently a Senior Policy Analyst for the Aerospace Corporation, wrote the paper in 2009.  Entitled U.S. National Security and Economic Interests in Remote Sensing:  The Evolution of Civil and Commercial Policy, it traces the history of U.S. policy regarding civil and commercial remote sensing satellites from 1960 through 2008.

Aftergood filed a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request for the report in 2009 and received a copy today.  The report can be downloaded from the FAS website.

What took NGA three years to release the report remains a mystery.

Last Updated: Nov 29, 2012 5:46 pm ET
Tamping Down Those Mars Expectations-Grotzinger Quote a Misunderstanding-UPDATE

Tamping Down Those Mars Expectations-Grotzinger Quote a Misunderstanding-UPDATE

By Marcia Smith | Posted: November 28, 2012 12:00 am ET | Last Updated: November 28, 2012 7:46 pm ET

UPDATE:   The Mars Curiosity Twitter feed tweeted a link to this charming, funny video of what the rover just might find on Mars!

Expectations of a major announcement about a discovery by NASA’s Mars Curiosity rover have loomed large since National Public Radio (NPR) reported that Curiosity’s top scientist said history was in the making.   NASA is now trying to dampen those expectations, explaining that he was not referring to anything specific that already has been discovered, but only to the mission overall.

Veteran NPR science correspondent Joe Palca reported on November 20 that John Grotzinger, Curiosity’s principal investigator, told him data from the Sample Analysis at Mars (SAM) instrument was “gonna be one for the history books.”   SAM is the instrument that analyzes samples scooped up from the surface by Curiosity’s robotic arm.   Curiosity landed on Mars on August 5 (Pacific Daylight Time, August 6, Eastern Daylight Time) and began a 2-year mission that many expect to be extended long beyond that.

And there’s the rub.   NASA is trying to explain that Grotzinger was referring to the totality of data that will come from Curiosity over its mission lifetime, not a specific discovery from the few samples SAM has analyzed so far.

The Twitterverse and media outlets jumped on the story, some demanding to know when NASA would announce the historic findings.   Attention is focused on next week’s annual fall meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU) in San Francisco, the venue for many scientific papers announcing the most recent geophysical discoveries on Earth and elsewhere in the solar system.   A public lecture on Curiosity is scheduled for Sunday, and a press conference on Monday.

The holy grail of Mars exploration is finding any type of sign that life exists or existed on the Red Planet.  The NPR story got many people buzzing that perhaps that is what Curiosity found as implausible as that might be (unlikely that it would be found so easily, impossible that it could be confirmed so quickly).

Palca’s story goes this way:  “Grotzinger says they recently put a soil sample in SAM, and the analysis shows something remarkable. ‘This data is gonna be one for the history books.  It’s looking really good,’ he says.   Grotzinger can see the pained look on my face as I wait, hoping he’ll tell me what the heck he’s found, but he’s not providing any more information.”  Palca goes on to explain the wisdom of taking a cautious approach to new discoveries, which need to be checked and rechecked to ensure accuracy.

That account left everyone hanging and waiting for the big announcement.   Today, however, Amanda Wills at Mashable reported that it was all a misunderstanding and Grotzinger was only “trying to convey … that Curiosity’s data over her entire two-year mission will further our knowledge of Mars more than ever before, making it a historical mission.” 

NASA Administrator Charlie Bolden made a similar comment at today’s meeting of the NASA Advisory Council at Marshall Space Flight Center.  Bolden said Grotzinger was talking “in exuberance” about the overall mission.  “Everyone’s waiting for an earth shattering discovery,” Bolden said, adding “not yet.”

Last Updated: Nov 28, 2012 7:46 pm ET

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