If the next launch of Russia’s Soyuz spacecraft is delayed too long, the International Space Station (ISS) could be “abandoned in November” according to Spaceflightnow.com’s headline.

The website quotes ISS program manager Mike Sufferdini as saying that “Logistically, we can support [operations] almost forever, but eventually if we don’t see the Soyuz spacecraft, we’ll probably going [sic] to unmanned ops before the end of the year.”

With the space shuttle program terminated, Russia’s Soyuz spacecraft — launched by the Soyuz launch vehicle — is the only way to get crews back and forth to ISS. A Soyuz launch vehicle boosting a Progress cargo spacecraft (with no one aboard) failed last week. There are several variants of the Soyuz launch vehicle. Russia is investigating what happened and what effect it will have on other launches involving the Soyuz launch vehicle.

Sufferdini is due to give a press briefing tomorrow morning at 9:00 am CDT (10:00 am EDT) that will be aired on NASA TV.

As Hurricane Irene’s rains begin here in the Washington DC suburbs, thought it would be good to post this now is case we lose electricity as everyone is forecasting. This last week of Washington’s summer break is quiet in terms of meetings, but here are the ones we know about. Hope all of you in Irene’s path weather the storm safely. I hope to be posting to Twitter from time to time at least. Follow me @SpcPlcyOnline

Monday, August 29

• NASA press conference on impact of Progress launch failure on International Space Station operations, 10:00 am EDT (9:00 am CDT), watch on NASA TV
  

Monday-Wednesday, August 29-31

• National Research Council Solar and Space Physics (Heliophysics) Decadal Survey steering committee, Irvine, CA (this meeting is closed in its entirety).

Tuesday-Thursday, August 30-September 1

• VEGAX meeting and Venus Science Conference, Smiithsonian Udvar-Hazy Center, Chantilly, VA

Wednesday, August 31

• NASA Advisory Council Earth Science Subcommittee meeting, 1:00-3:00 pm EDT, via telecon

Mike Sufferdini, NASA’s program manager for the International Space Station (ISS) program, will provide an ISS update on Monday and discuss the impact of the launch failure of Russia’s Progress cargo spacecraft last week.

The briefing will be at 10:00 am EDT (9:00 am CDT). It will be broadcast on NASA TV.

The launch failure is of concern not only because the cargo that was intended for ISS was lost, but because the Soyuz launch vehicle that failed is also used for launching crews to the ISS on Soyuz spacecraft. Sufferdini’s press conference will address the status of Russia’s investigation of the accident.

Politicians on both sides of the debate over the future of the U.S. human spaceflight program have used the Progress launch failure to press their respective cases.

The launch failure of Russia’s Progress cargo ship destined for the International Space Station (ISS) provided fuel for politicians on both sides of the debate over the future of the U.S. human spaceflight program.

Senators Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) and Richard Shelby (R-AL) used it to argue the criticality of the U.S. developing its own national capabilities to deliver cargo to the ISS. Both Senators champion NASA development of a new rocket, the Space Launch System, and crew module, the Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle. Although the main purpose of that system is taking astronauts beyond low Earth orbit, it would be a backup capability for supplying the ISS if commercial cargo and commercial crew systems do not materialize. The two Senators are skeptics of the commercial initiative and want NASA to develop a new system.

Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA), on the other hand, is an enthusiastic promoter of commercial crew and cargo. He used the failure to call on NASA Administrator Charlie Bolden to “propose an emergency transfer of funding from unobligated balances in other programs, including the Space Launch System, to NASA’s commercial crew initiative.” Rohrabacher wants to accelerate and possibly expand the efforts of the companies working on commercial crew.

Russia is continuing to investigate yesterday’s launch failure. Progress was launched by the usually reliable Soyuz rocket. That rocket is used for launches of many other Russian spacecraft — including the crew-carrying Soyuz capsules — but there are several versions of it. Russian space officials announced that a planned launch of a navigation satellite from its Plesetsk cosmodrome using a different variant of the rocket would be postponed until more is known about the failure.

Although there are not likely to be immediate impacts of the launch failure on ISS crew, which was recently resupplied by STS-135, it does highlight the operational risks of discontinuing the space shuttle program. Except for the 29 months that the space shuttle stood down after the 2003 Columbia tragedy, the ISS has been able to rely on a robust set of international spacecraft to bring crews and supplies.

NASA’s Office of Inspector General (OIG) has found no evidence of political influence or other improper consideration in the choice of locations for the four space shuttle orbiters.

In a report released today. the OIG said that while NASA Administrator Charlie Bolden was “subject to a great deal of pressure from Members of Congress and other interested parties,” it found “no evidence” that it affected his ultimate decisions. “Moreover, we found no attempt by White House officials to direct or influence Bolden’s decision making” and the NASA process was “consistent with applicable Federal law.”

Some congressional delegations, especially from Texas, home NASA’s Johnson Space Center and the astronaut corps, were extremely upset by the decision not to locate one of the orbiters there. The four remaining orbiters are scheduled to be placed on display in these four locations:

• Discovery, National Air and Space Museum Udvar-Hazy Center (replacing the Enterprise which is there now), outside Washington DC
• Enterprise, Intrepid Sea, Air and Space Museum, New York City
• Endeavour, California Science Center, Los Angeles
• Atlantis, Kennedy Space Center, FL

The OIG did criticize NASA for managing the process as though it was a competitive procurement, and for taking so long to make its decision and announce the winners, however.

Aviation Week and Space Technology (AWST) is reporting that the cost of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) is now expected to be $8.7 billion.

The magazine says that a NASA spokesman asserts that the cost includes development, launch and science costs and is an increase of $3.6 billion over NASA’s most recent cost estimate.

JWST is often described as the successor to the popular Hubble Space Telescope, although it operates in a different spectral band (infrared, rather than visible) and will be in a very different orbit — at the L2 Lagrange point, not in Earth orbit where it could be serviced by astronauts.

NASA’s next lunar mission, GRAIL, is getting ready to launch.

The Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory (GRAIL) twin spacecraft are scheduled for launch on September 8 aboard a Delta II from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, FL.

The two spacecraft will orbit the Moon to study its interior structure and map the Moon’s gravity field. NASA will hold a prelaunch press conference on September 6 at 1:00 pm EDT that will be carried live on NASA TV.

Launch is scheduled for September 8 at 8:37 am EDT. A second launch window is at 9:16 am EDT. Other launch times are possible through October 19 if necessary.

NASAWatch has posted the executive summary of the independent cost assessment for the Space Launch System (SLS).

The assessment was performed by Booz Allen. On Friday, Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison called on NASA to release the study immediately, but it has not officially been made public. The NASAWatch posting obviously is not an official release, but an effort by someone “in the know” to get the word out. The report begins its “Key Findings” section with this summary:

“In general, the estimates prepared by SLS, MPCV, and 21CGS are consistent with Analysis of Alternative (AoA) level estimates and are reasonable point estimates for budget planning in the near-term 3-5 year budget horizon. They are serviceable in that they represent the basis to build upon for future life-cycle cost estimates of the quality required for long-term budget formulation and the development of program baselines. None of the estimates reviewed by the ICA Team support establishment of long-term budgets or detailed baselines consistent with NPR 7120.5 requirements. They are, however, reasonable AoA estimates appropriate for supporting trade studies and comparative analyses. All three Program estimates assume large, unsubstantiated, future cost efficiencies leading to the impression that they are optimistic. A scenario-based risk assessment, which excludes cost estimating uncertainty and unknown-unknown risks (historically major sources of cost and schedule growth), reveals all three Programs’ reserves are insufficient.”

Acronym check: SLS = Space Launch System, MPCV = Multi-purpose Crew Vehicle (Orion), 21CGS = 21st Century Ground System, ICA = Independent Cost Assessment (the Booz Allen team that did the study).

The following events may be of interest in the coming week. For more information, check our calendar on the right menu or click the links below.

Monday, August 22

• NASA media teleconference on winners of technology development awards, 2:00 pm EDT, listen at http://www.nasa.gov/newsaudio
• Secure World Foundation (SWF) seminar on Development Paths of Emerging Space Nations, 1779 Mass. Ave., NW, Washington, DC, 3:00-5:00 pm EDT. SpacePolicyOnline.com correspondent Laura Delgado is one of the panelists at this seminar.

Monday-Wednesday, August 22-24

• International Primitive Body Exploration Working Group, CalTech, Pasadena, CA

Wednesday, August 24

• Women in Aerospace (WIA) Decades of Storytelling: A Women’s Equality Day Panel Discussion, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, 10:00 am – 1:00 pm EDT

Thursday-Friday, August 25-26

• SWF-ASE-NASA Workshop on International Recommendations for NEO Threat Mitigation, Courtyard Old Town, Pasadena, CA

NASA should make a comprehensive survey of Near Earth Objects (NEOs) a priority according to a report from the “Target NEO” workshop held last February.

The workshop was held on February 22, 2011 at George Washington University (GWU) under the sponsorship of GWU’s Space Policy Institute and Ball Aerospace. The stated purpose was to look at what is involved in meeting President Obama’s goal of sending humans to an asteroid in 2025 as the next step in human space exploration. One of the challenges is knowing what asteroids will be in the right position as the target for a human mission in that time frame.

A summary of the workshop was recently released. The bottom line is that scientists know of very few worthy candidates proably because they are limited to seeing only a small portion of the sky and thus a small portion of the total asteroid population. What is needed, they argue, is a space-based telescope located perhaps at a Lagrange point or in a Venus-like orbit that can see the entire sky and discover additional NEO targets.

“The paucity of viable candidate destination NEOs can be attributed to the fact that NEO observing assets are currently confined to Earth’s vicinity,” according to the report. A number of concepts already exist on how to accomplish a space-based NEO survey, and the first necessary step is “intercomparisons of capabilities and costs using a common set of assumptions….” Discovery of more NEOs would be followed by other steps, but the report concludes that ground- and space-based assets could “greatly reduce unknowns about the NEO population within 10 years.”

Sending humans to an asteroid requires overcoming many other challenges, which also were discussed at the workshop. International coordination is an important element in moving forward, the report asserts.