While one part of official Washington worries that Russia will follow through on a recent threat to prohibit use of RD-180 engines for U.S. national security space launches, another part is working to ensure exactly that outcome.   The Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC) yesterday adopted a McCain amendment that prohibits future contracts to purchase Russian rocket engines to launch national security satellites.

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) issued a press release yesterday (May 22) announcing 11 amendments adopted by SASC during markup of the FY2015 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA).  SASC has been working on the bill since Wednesday and was expected to complete its work late yesterday or today (May 23).  No announcement had been made by the committee as of 6:30 am EDT this morning as this article went to press.  (Sen. Carl Levin’s website has a press release about a different aspect of the bill that says markup was completed on Thursday, but the committee has not released an announcement or a summary of the action it took.  Levin chairs the committee.)

McCain’s press release did not include the exact wording of the amendment, but it would “prohibit future contracts to buy Russian rocket engines to launch our national security satellites.” 

The amendment also requires the Air Force to “have a full and open competition on two satellites that they tried to sole-source” and for an investigation on “undue reliance by the U.S. space industry on foreign suppliers and parts such as engines.”

McCain sent a letter to Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel on May 6 asking a series of questions about DOD’s use of Russian rocket engines and plans by the United Launch Alliance (ULA) to accelerate delivery of those engines in case the geopolitical situation between the United States and Russia over the Ukraine situation worsens.  HIs questions focused on whether the purchases violate U.S. sanctions in Executive Order 13661 and the impact of increased costs if deliveries are accelerated.   That followed letters he sent on April 25 to Secretary of the Air Force Deborah Lee James and, separately, to DOD Inspector General Jon Rymer, asking questions about the Air Force’s decision to award a contract to ULA for 36 Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle (EELV) cores in December 2013 on a sole-source rather than competitive basis,

SpaceX founder and Chief Designer Elon Musk is suing the Air Force over the award of that contract.  Musk wants to be able to compete with ULA for launches of U.S. national security satellites.  One thrust of his argument is that one of the two EELVs, Atlas V, relies on Russian RD-180 engines and using his Falcon rockets with U.S.-built engines would be better.  McCain apparently agrees.   However, an Air Force review panel recently concluded that there are no easy answers to launching U.S. national security  satellites if the RD-180s no longer are available.   Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin recently threatened to prohibit use of RD-180 engines for such launches because of sanctions the Obama Administration imposed against him and other Russian officials because of Russia’s actions in Ukraine.  Rogozin oversees Russia’s aerospace sector.

UPDATE:  The text of the bill and report are now available (see links in last paragraph).

ORIGINAL STORY:  The Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC) approved its version of the FY2015 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) late yesterday (May 22).  It contains a number of space-related provisions, especially affecting launches of U.S. national security satellites and also continues funding for the Operationally Responsive Space (ORS) office that the Obama Administration has been trying to close for several years.

The future of the Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle (EELV) program — both use of Russian RD-180 rocket engines for the Atlas V rocket and competition between the United Launch Alliance (ULA) and “new entrants” like SpaceX — features heavily in the space-related actions listed in the committee’s summary press release.

The deteriorating geopolitical relationship between the United States and Russia over Ukraine is shining a spotlight on U.S dependence on Russian space hardware and thrown the RD-180 engines into the middle of the controversy.  At the same time, SpaceX is suing the U.S. government because it awarded a block-buy contract for 36 EELV cores — including some for the Atlas V — on a sole source rather than competitive basis in December.  SpaceX already launches spacecraft for NASA and the commercial space sector and wants to compete for national security space launches.  That aspiration has the support of key Senators like Sen. John McCain (R-AZ). 

McCain issued his own press release yesterday announcing that SASC had adopted his amendment to prohibit future contracts to purchase Russian rocket engines for U.S. national security space launches.  McCain’s press release did not provide the full text of the amendment.  The committee’s press release does not either, but it elaborates on what it involves.   While the use of RD-180s after the end of the current block-buy contract would be prohibited, that prohibition can be waived for national security reasons or if “space launch and services cannot be obtained at a fair and reasonable price.”  McCain said SASC also adopted amendments he sponsored that require full and open competition for two launches “they tried to sole source” and for an investigation of “undue reliance” on foreign suppliers and parts. 

In total, the provisions related to the EELV program and competition for national security space launches approved by SASC are —

• Requires competition for launching the payload from mission five of the Operationally Responsive Space (ORS) program
• Prohibits the use of Russian rocket engines on EELVs at the end of the current block-buy contract and requires DOD to pursue domestic development of a new “world class liquid rocket engine with a waiver for national security and if space launch and services cannot be obtained at a fair and reasonable price”
• Requires the Secretary of Defense (SecDef) to develop a program plan to competitively produce by 2019 a new U.S. EELV-class liquid rocket engine
  • the plan must be submitted to Congress by September 30, 2014
  • $100 million is added for FY2015, and $20 million of already appropriated FY2014 funds is designated, to begin engineering design
• Requires the Government Accountability Office (GAO) to examine the EELV program’s reliance and risk on foreign sources
• Requires GAO to examine the cost and pricing accounting methods of the EELV program, and
• Requires the Air Force to increase competition in the EELV program by at least one in FY2015 “without breaking the terms of the existing block buy” and allows for an additional competition between FY2016 and FY2017 subject to a SecDef waiver that it will not break the block-buy contract

The House passed its version of the NDAA (H.R. 4435) yesterday and it also contains a number of provisions on these topics.   The House and Senate agree on the need for a new U.S. liquid rocket engine.  The House adds more money than the Senate for it in FY2015 — about $200 million ($220 million is added to the Aerospace Propulsion account, but then $23 million is subtracted from “liquid rocket engine combustion technologies and advanced liquid engine technologies” in the same account, so the net addition is $197 million).  Both the House and Senate seem supportive of the December 2013 block buy contract that SpaceX is disputing, though the House more strongly than the Senate.  Both call on the Air Force to provide more opportunities for competition, while the Senate is more proscriptive.

The future of the ORS office itself is a long running debate between Congress and the Obama Administration.  Once again DOD submitted a FY2015 budget plan to zero funding for the ORS office and once again Congress is rejecting that proposal.  The Senate bill adds $20 million for ORS for FY2015 to “enable the program to continue designing a low cost space based situational awareness satellite.”  The House bill adds $30 million.

The Senate bill includes the following other space-related provisions according to the press release:

• Requires the Defense Science Board to review the long term systems architecture of the space situational awareness sensor system
• Requires an update of the space control and space superiority strategy pursuant to the Space Posture Review
• Prohibits funding to store the last Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) weather satellite unless the SecDef certifies to Congress that he intends to launch that satellite and will have sufficient funding to do so in the Future Years Defense Program (that projects future defense spending)
• Requires a “preponderance” of funds within the Space Security and Defense Program to be allocated to offensive space control and active defense strategies

The House bill also would require DOD to launch the final DMSP satellite.   That and other House space-related provisions are summarized in two previous SpacePolicyOnline.com articles on April 29 and on May 5.

The text of the Senate bill (S. 2410) as approved by SASC and accompanying explanatory report (S. Rept. 113-176) are now posted on the Library of Congress THOMAS website.

A quick turnaround Air Force review panel assessing the impact on U.S. space launches if Russia’s RD-180 rocket engines no longer are available has found there are no easy remedies.

According to briefing charts obtained by SpacePoiicyOnline.com, between now and FY2017 the impacts of losing use of RD-180 engines are “significant” and “options to mitigate them are limited.”  The panel was chaired by Maj. Gen. (ret.) Mitch Mitchell.  Former NASA Administrator Mike Griffin was deputy chair and Gen. (Ret.) Tom Moorman was a senior advisor to the group.

One of the more interesting slides in the package is the “how did we get here” slide 8.  U.S. use of Russian rocket engines for a workhorse U,S. launch system was originally predicated on establishment of a U.S.-based co-production capability so that the engines could be produced here rather than relying on delivery from Russia. 

The United Launch Alliance (ULA) uses RD-180 engines to power the Atlas V rocket, one of the two U.S. “Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicles” or EELVs.  Delta IV is the other.  The two EELVs are used for most launches of national security satellites, as well as NASA and NOAA spacecraft.

As demonstrated in slide 8, DOD delayed the co-production requirement for the RD-180 engines for the Atlas rocket — originally built by General Dynamics, which was later bought by Lockheed Martin — throughout the late 1990s and 2000s.   The requirement never went into effect, so RD-180s continue to be manufactured in Russia and imported to the United States.  That is why Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin’s threat to prohibit using RD-180 engines to launch U.S. national security satellites is creating such concern.

ULA says it has a 2-year supply of the RD-180 engines already in the United States, but the Mitchell study points out that 56 percent of the EELV launches between now and 2020 are planned for the Atlas V.  While ULA has said satellites could be shifted to the Delta IV instead, the Mitchell study concludes that Delta IV production cannot be accelerated sufficiently to avoid launch delays.  It also concludes that “New Entrants” like SpaceX will not be ready in time to avoid delays.

In a worst case scenario where the last launch of an Atlas V with an RD-180 engine was today’s launch of a National Reconnaissance Office satellite (NROL-33), the study concludes that 31 launches could be delayed with a cost impact of $5 billion.  If all the RD-180 engines currently in the United States can be used, there would be 9 launch delays costing $2.5 billion.

The Mitchell study does not recommend reinstituting the co-production requirement, saying it is “doable but does not improve the current situation.”  Instead, it calls for U.S. production of a domestic liquid rocket engine and other mitigation actions.  The study calls for issuance of a DOD Acquisition Decision Memorandum (ADM) to develop a new liquid oxygen/hydrocarbon (LOx/HC) engine as well as a new generation launch vehicle.  It recommends creation of a joint DOD/NASA program office to manage “investment in a LOx/HC engine risk reduction phase ($141M)” and to provide “options for engines and new launch vehicles in support of Phase 3 EELV acquisition strategy.”  Phase 3 of the EELV acquisition strategy is for the years FY2023-2030.

The bottom line of the study is that actions are needed now, in FY2014, to “mitigate current risk and preserve future options.”

Today, the House passed the FY2015 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA, H.R. 4355), which includes about $200 million for development of a new liquid rocket engine.  The Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC) is expected to complete markup of its version of the NDAA tomorrow, but what it will say about a new rocket engine has not been made public.  Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) announced today, however, that the committee adopted one of his amendments that would prohibit future purchases of Russian rocket engines to launch national security satellites.  The appropriations committees in the House and Senate have not yet acted on the FY2015 defense appropriations bill.

The Space Foundation released its annual report on the state of the space economy today.   It asserts that the global space economy grew by 4 percent in 2013 reaching a new record of $314.17 billion.

Government spending around the world accounts for less than a quarter of that amount, and was less in 2013 compared to 2012 “as significant cuts in the U.S. space budget were only partly offset by growth in the space budgets of other countries.” 

The reduction in U.S. Government space spending was both in civil and national security space primarily because of the sequester.  

NASA’s spending dropped from $17.77 billion in FY2012 to $16.85 billion in FY2013, for example.   (It rebounded to $17.65 billion for the current fiscal year, FY2014.)   Calculating how much the United States spends on national security space is a challenge since so much information is classified and space activities are not grouped together into a single account in the DOD budget.   The Space Foundation estimates that it was $21.72 billion in FY2013.   Adding in funding for other agencies like NOAA and NSF, it uses $41.257 billion as the total for U.S. government space spending in 2013, 9.4 percent less than 2012.

Even with that reduction, the U.S. space program overall still accounted for 55.7 percent of total government spending around the globe in 2013 according to the report.

The growth in the space economy was in the commercial sector.  The report concludes that of the $314.17 billion space economy in 2013:

• 24 percent was government spending
  • 13 percent U.S.;
  • 11 percent non-U.S
• 76 percent was commercial
  • 37 percent for commercial infrastructure and support industries;
  • 39 percent commercial space products and services

Commercial space infrastructure includes satellite manufacturing, launch services, space stations, ground stations, and associated equipment.    Commercial space products and services includes revenues from satellite broadcasting (television and radio), communications, and Earth observation.

In terms of the satellite launch industry, there were 81 orbital launch attempts in 2013, of which 78 were successful in placing their primary payloads into orbit.  The Space Foundation counts 23 of those as commercial launches, of which Russia conducted 12, the United States 6, Europe 4, and the multinational Sea Launch consortium 1. 

A brief summary of the report and information on how to purchase the full report is on the Space Foundation’s website.