UPDATE, February 2, 2015:  After further analysis, scientists involved in this “discovery” retracted it.    The Associated Press quotes Brian Keating as saying “we’re essentially retracting the claim” in a new paper.  “It’s disappointing … but it’s important to know the truth.

ORIGINAL STORY, March 20, 2014: Scientists using a telescope in Antarctica equipped with sensors developed by NASA announced on Monday that they discovered evidence of gravitational waves produced by the Big Bang that many believe created our universe.

Understanding the origin and evolution of the universe is a scientific quest dating back centuries.  Today, most scientists believe an event called the Big Bang started it all, though what created the Big Bang is unknown and only theories exist about what happened in the first moments afterwards.

Based on observations from NASA’s Hubble Space Telescope, the universe is calculated to be 13.8 billion years old and NASA’s Hubble and Spitzer space telescopes have peered back through about 13.3 billion of those years.  NASA’s COBE and WMAP satellites as well as the European Space Agency’s (ESA’s) Planck mission have studied light – the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) – that originated from an even younger universe and began to stream through space 380,000 years after the Big Bang.

What happened before that remains a mystery.  One theory is that in the fractions of a second after the Big Bang, a period of “inflation” took place where theoretical particles called “inflatons” pushed space-time apart.  Eventually stars, galaxies, planets and the other objects and phenomena observable today formed.  Some scientists theorize that the inflatons continued to form new universes in a process dubbed “eternal inflation” with “infinite pocket universes” creating a multiverse.  Andrei Linde of Stanford was quoted by New Scientist as saying that “[i]f inflation is there, the multiverse is there.”

The findings from the BICEP2 telescope in Antarctica announced this week by the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics (CfA) relate to an infinitesimal period of time – a trillionth of a trillionth of a trillionth of a second – after the Big Bang.  Inflation theory posits that the events occurring at that time created gravitational waves that can still be detected today.  The observations with BICEP2 support that theory.

BICEP2 found a characteristic swirly pattern in the polarization of the light left over from the Big Bang (the CMB) that could only be caused by gravitational waves. Waves of light are polarized when they tend to wiggle in one particular direction.  Gravitational waves – ripples in space-time caused by the motion of massive objects like those being flung outward during the violent expansion of inflation – would polarize light as they swept through the universe.  The Harvard-Smithsonian CfA announcement said the BICEP2 data “represent the first images of gravitational waves, or ripples in space-time.”

BICEP2 is a radio telescope funded by NSF, which also runs the South Pole Station where BICEP2 is located.  NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) developed the superconductor-based BICEP2 detectors.  Jamie Bock, who has joint appointments with JPL and Caltech, is co-director of the project and said that it already was known that the Big Bang produced density waves, but these observations are the first to show that gravitational waves were also produced.

The BICEP2 findings support inflation theory, but remain to be corroborated by subsequent studies, a sine qua non of the scientific process.  Nonetheless, the astrophysics community is energized.

In the meantime, assuming the result holds, the implications are tantalizing: it solidifies the theory of inflation and greatly narrows the pool of inflation models that can be correct. Furthermore, it again proves Einstein’s prediction of gravitational waves.

BICEP2 is not the only telescope searching for signs of inflation.  Among the others is NSF’s Laser Interferometer Gravitational Wave Observatory (LIGO), a large ground-based experiment designed to detect gravitational waves directly.  Work is now being done to upgrade the detectors in the facility and “Advanced LIGO” should begin operations this year.  The Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) is a potential NASA-ESA mission that would seek to detect gravitational waves directly using three separated spacecraft.  It received a relatively low priority (priority 3) in the National Research Council’s most recent Decadal Survey for astrophysics because the technology is not mature.  ESA plans to launch a technology demonstration for such a mission, LISA Pathfinder, next year.

BICEP2 is an international collaboration involving 11 institutions: Caltech, JPL, UC San Diego, Harvard, NIST Boulder, Stanford, University of British Columbia, University of Chicago, University of Minnesota, University of Toronto and University of Wales Cardiff.  BICEP stands for Background Imaging of Cosmic Extragalactic Polarisation.  This was the second phase of the BICEP experiment, hence the designation BICEP2.

NASA Planetary Science Division Director Jim Green told a NASA advisory subcommittee today that funding for operations of the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) is not assured for the rest of FY2014.

LRO is part of NASA’s Lunar Quest program and Congress provided no funds for it in FY2014.  The Lunar Atmosphere and Dust Environment Explorer (LADEE) also is part of Lunar Quest, but remaining funds in FY2014 are sufficient for that mission, which has a short lifetime.

LRO, however, can continue operating in lunar orbit for some time yet.   Launched in 2009, it is providing detailed images of the lunar surface.   Green hopes to get permission to shift funds within his budget through NASA’s FY2014 operating plan to maintain LRO operations.  Operating plans detail how NASA plans to spend the money Congress appropriated.  Historically, Congress acquiesces to comparatively minor changes such as this, although last year Congress and the Administration waged a multi-month battle over how to spend FY2013 funds.  That funding was significantly impacted by the sequester and two congressionally-imposed rescissions and disagreement arose about priorities.

NASA’s FY2014 operating plan was due to be submitted to Congress within 45 days of enactment of the FY2014 Consolidated Appropriations Act on January 17.   Green told the NASA Advisory Council’s Planetary Science Subcommittee today that it had not yet been submitted to the best of his knowledge.

He said he did not believe it was Congress’s intent to cancel LRO and is optimistic that funds will be found.   In addition, however, LRO also must successfully emerge from NASA’s “Senior Review” process where scientists who want to extend a spacecraft’s mission after its primary mission is completed must go through a peer review process to evaluate the mission’s scientific merit to determine if it warrants the additional costs to continue operations.  LRO is one of seven missions that will be considered by the 2014 planetary science Senior Review in an era of tight funding, but Green sounded optimistic.   If LRO is recommended for continuation by the Senior Review and money is found, it will be shifted into NASA’s Discovery line of planetary missions since the Lunar Quest line no longer exists.

NASA’s FY2015 budget request for planetary science is $1.280 billion, less than the $1.345 billion appropriated for FY2014.

Another mission slated for consideration by the Senior Review is Cassini.   Orbiting Saturn since 2004, Cassini continues to send back valuable information not only about Saturn itself, but its moons, including Titan.   Cassini’s mission definitely will end in 2017 because it will run out of fuel and NASA wants to intentionally deorbit it into Saturn’s atmosphere so it does not contaminate other nearby bodies like Titan.  But that is three years from now and Cassini scientists want to extend operations until then.

Wording in a document released by the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) explaining NASA’s FY2015 budget request implied that a decision to curtail operations of the Stratospheric Observatory for Infrared Astronomy (SOFIA), a joint aircraft-based astronomy project by NASA and its German counterpart, DLR, was made in order to ensure funding for Cassini operations.  Green insisted that was a matter of poor writing, however, not fact.   SOFIA is part of NASA’s astrophysics program and ordinarily each NASA science discipline – astrophysics, planetary science, heliophysics and earth science – must solve budgetary problems within their own budgets rather than taking money from others.

Green passionately explained today that there was no “horse-trading” between NASA’s astrophysics and planetary science offices as some suggest: “Don’t buy into that.”  Budget pressures are everywhere, he insisted, and each of NASA’s science disciplines still must find its own solutions.  Every planetary science program subject to the 2014 Senior Review must make its best case and NASA will match that peer-reviewed priority ranking to budgetary resources, Green said, adding that Cassini advocates should take nothing for granted – “there is no substitute for an excellent proposal.”

In addition to LRO and Cassini, the other five missions that will be considered by the Senior Review for extended operations are associated with Mars exploration:  the Mars rover Opportunity; the Mars rover Curiosity; the Mars orbiter Odyssey; another Mars orbiter MRO; and a NASA instrument (Aspera-3) on Europe’s Mars Express (MEX), another Mars orbiter.

Green discussed many other aspects of NASA’s FY2015 budget request, including the $15 million designated for studies of a mission to Jupiter’s moon Europa.   He excitedly noted that this was the first time that the Obama Administration is requesting funds for Europa studies, but repeated what other NASA officials have said – they want to determine if major scientific objectives could be met with a mission costing NASA no more than $1 billion.   (Congress added money for Europa in FY2013 and FY2014, but the Administration did not request any.) The original cost estimate for a Europa mission was $4.7 billion.  Scientists at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory devised a different type of mission dubbed Europa Clipper that had much less scientific capability, but could still provide important scientific data, for about $2 billion.   Cutting that cost in half will be a challenge.  International partnerships are one possibility, but Green said that based on past experience it would not be a 50-50 split so the $1 billion that NASA could provide would still represent the preponderance of the cost.

The $15 million for Europa in the FY2015 budget request is only for that one year.   No funding is requested for future years, so it is not a “new start” indicating that the Obama Administration is committed to executing such a mission within a definitive time frame.

NASA requested $15 million in FY2015 for a robotic mission to Jupiter’s moon Europa, but as the detailed budget documents released late yesterday illustrate, that is a one-year request only.   The 5-year budget plan included in the detailed document includes no funding beyond FY2015.

NASA’s 713-page detailed FY2015 budget request was posted on NASA’s website yesterday.  An overview was released last week and the only new flight project initiative announced was $15 million for a mission to Europa, whose icy crust is thought to cover a liquid ocean with the tantalizing implication that microbial life might exist there.

A mission to Europa was the second priority for a large mission in the National Research Council’s 2011 Decadal Survey for planetary science, losing out to a campaign of Mars missions leading to a Mars sample return in part because of its $4.7 billion pricetag.

Since then, scientists at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) have been working to reduce the cost (and consequently the scientific return) of the mission.  The “Europa Clipper” concept would cost about $2 billion.  Though less than half the original estimate, it is still in the “flagship” range of NASA science missions – the most expensive category – and the Obama Administration has not been willing to commit to a mission of that magnitude.

Some influential members of Congress, however, are quite partial to a Europa mission and Congress added money for it in the FY2013 and FY2014 budgets.  Rep. John Culberson (R-TX) and Adam Schiff (D-CA) who serve on the House Appropriations Commerce-Justice-Science (CJS) Subcommittee that funds NASA, and Rep. Lamar Smith (R-TX), who chairs the House committee that authorizes NASA activities, are among the supporters of a Europa mission.

In FY2013, Congress added $75 million, or about $69 million after reductions for the sequester and two rescissions required by the law.  For FY2014, Congress added $80 million.

As NASA officials point out, however, they cannot build a mission based on promises or expectations that Congress will add money year after year after year. What is needed is approval for a “new start” program that is factored into NASA’s long range budget plans, something that needs Administration acquiescence.

When NASA Administrator Charlie Bolden released an overview of the budget request for FY2015 last week, it initially appeared that Europa had achieved the “new start” threshold when he said the request included $15 million for a Europa mission.  As details released yesterday prove, however, that is only for one year, FY2015.  It is not funding for a new program expected to last many years until launch in the 2020s.  The projected future budget, or “runout,” for FY2016 and beyond is zero.

Speaking at the American Astronautical Society’s Goddard Memorial Symposium on Wednesday (March 5), Bolden said the agency is “committed” to launching a mission to Europa in the decade of the 2020s, but he is targeting the cost at about $1 billion.  That is half of the Europa Clipper concept.  He acknowledged that it will be difficult to design a mission for that cost.  Later at the AAS conference, NASA Science Mission Directorate (SMD) chief John Grunsfeld indicated that NASA will not be able to spend all the $80 million provided in the FY2014 budget before the end of FY2014 because the budget was finalized so late and some of that will be carried over into FY2015.   If Congress approves the $15 million requested for FY2015, however, that still is not enough to move the project forward, he said, and the focus remains on studies.   He plans to release a Request for Information (RFI) soon to solicit input on what could be accomplished with a $1 billion-class mission. That would fit within SMD’s “New Frontiers” category of competed missions that are intended to be initiated every three years, but not enough for a flagship mission.

UPDATE:  Soyuz TMA-10M landed as scheduled.   Bad weather limited the number of helicopters participating in the recovery effort to four instead of 12 and the folks who normally provide live video of the landing were left behind.  So no live audio/video of the descent, but NASA reported that the crew landed on time at 11:24 pm EDT.

ORIGINAL STORY:  Soyuz TMA-10M is on track for landing tonight at 11:24 pm Eastern Daylight Time (EDT) despite inclement weather at the landing site in Kazakhstan.

The three International Space Station (ISS) crew members — Oleg Kotov, Sergey Ryazanskiy and Mike Hopkins — closed the hatches between the ISS and their Soyuz transport vehicle at 4:58 pm EDT, slightly after the scheduled time of 4:45 pm EDT.   Undocking is expected at 8:02 pm EDT.

Whether the landing would take place tonight or be postponed until later this week was up in the air earlier today because of the snowy, windy, frigid weather.

Three ISS crew members — Japan’s Koichi Wakata, NASA’s Rick Mastracchio and Russia’s Mikhail Tyurin — remain aboard the ISS.  Wakata assumed command of the ISS yesterday, the first Japanese to hold that position.  Another three-man crew is scheduled to launch in about two weeks to restore ISS to its typical 6-person complement.

NASA TV coverage of the undocking begins at 7:45 pm EDT, and of the landing at 10:15 pm EDT.

Follow us on Twitter @SpcPlcyOnline for the most up to date information.

Bad weather in Kazakhstan could lead to a postponement of the scheduled landing of Soyuz TMA-10M late tonight Eastern Daylight Time (EDT).   A go/no-go decision is expected late this afternoon.

Soyuz TMA-10M with cosmonauts Oleg Kotov and Sergey Ryazanskiy and astronaut Mike Hopkins is scheduled to undock from the International Space Station at 8:02 pm EDT and land at 11:24 pm EDT (9:24 am Tuesday local time at the landing site).  NASA photographer Bill Ingalls, who is in Kazakhstan to cover the landing, tweeted this morning that the helicopter he was in was returning to Karaganda because of the bad weather.

Weather was a bit thick so we turned our helo around and we are back in #Karaganda #Kazakhstan awaiting weather update. #exp38 #soyuz

— Bill Ingalls (@ingallsimages) March 10, 2014

NASA Johnson Space Center spokesman Josh Byerly said that the landing commission will meet at 4:00 pm EDT today to decide whether or not to proceed with the landing.   If it must be postponed, the landing “would be later this week most likely,” he added, rather than tomorrow.

If the landing goes ahead tonight, NASA TV coverage is scheduled as follows:

• TV coverage begins at 4:30 pm EDT for hatch closure (which is at 4:45 pm EDT)
• TV coverage begins at 7:45 pm EDT for undocking (which is at 8:02 pm EDT)
• TV coverage begins at 10:15 pm EDT for landing (which is at 11:24 pm EDT)

Follow us on Twitter @SpcPlcyOnline for updates as we get them.