SSB Chair Charlie Kennel Sees No Human Lunar Landing Until the 2020's or Beyond

Dr. Charles Kennel, chair of the National Research Council’s Space Studies Board (SSB), and a member of the Augustine panel that is considering options for the future of the human space flight program, has concluded that a human lunar landing is not likely to happen until “the 2020s or beyond.” Writing in the SSB’s latest newsletter, he says:

“Five years in, it now appears that we cannot go to the Moon because we can not pay. The combination of budget pressures, technical difficulties, and policy considerations have made it unlikely that the Vision’s schedule can be met, even with strong assumptions made about the shuttle and the space station. Moreover, shuttle launches may extend into 2011 for safety reasons, and it is not at all clear that people will be comfortable with an early retirement of the station. All this pushes any reasonable prospect of a human lunar landing into the 2020s or beyond. Perhaps the Chinese will get there first.”