Todd Halvorson has an article in Florida Today this morning laying out what he believes will be President Obama’s plan for the human space flight program. It sounds very much like what Andrew Lawler published in ScienceInsider several weeks ago following the meeting between President Obama and NASA Administrator Bolden. Halvorson dismissed Lawler’s story days later in his blog, quoting White House press officials as saying that the meeting was “informational not decisional” and Lawler’s story was “speculation.”

Today, Halvorson repeats most of what Lawler said the Obama plan will be:

• extend International Space Station operations to 2020,
• boost NASA’s budget by a $1 billion,
• rely on the commercial sector to take cargo and eventually crews to low Earth orbit (LEO),
• accelerate development of a heavy lift launch capability, and
• lead international expeditions into interplanetary space (which sounds like the Augustine commitee’s “Flexible Path” option)

Florida Today called this a “dynamic plan” for human space flight.

As we reported earlier, a $1 billion boost to the NASA budget for FY2011 would merely pay for the expected operations of the space shuttle for six additional months. The Augustine committee stressed that it was unlikely the remaining shuttle flights could be completed in FY2010 and estimated that it would cost $1.1 billion in FY2011 to finish the program. It also estimated that extending ISS to 2020 would cost an additional $13.7 billion.

Although $1 billion not only sounds like a lot of money, it is a lot of money, it is not nearly enough to move forward with a “dynamic” human space flight program.

After weighing three alternatives to address the hose problem on the Tranquility module (“Node 3”) that threatened to delay the launch of STS-130, NASA managers decided to assemble new hoses from parts of shorter hoses that were “previously certified and tested,” NASA reported today. That means the mission remains on schedule for launch on February 7. NASA also decided to accelerate development of a redesigned set of hoses based on the design that failed during pressure testing to serve as backup once the module is attached to the International Space Station (ISS).

Tranquility is the third of three “nodes” to be launched to ISS. The nodes essentially are connection points for other modules, although Tranquility’s main purpose is to serve as crew quarters. The hoses for the first two nodes (Unity and Harmony) were made by a different contractor and are working properly. NASA changed contractors for Tranquility’s hoses and they also are longer (14 feet) than those for the other two nodes.

The STS-130 crew comprises Commander George D. Zamka, Pilot Terry W. Virts, Jr., and Mission Specialists Nicholas J. M. Patrick, Robert L. Behenken, Stephen K. Robinson, and Kathryn P. Hire. Only four more shuttle missions remain after STS-130. The shuttle is supposed to be retired by September 30, 2010, the end of the current fiscal year, though many expect that it may need a few months of FY2011 to safely complete the remaining flights.

In a briefing held today at NASA’s Johnson Space Center in Houston, NASA officials discussed the January milestones for the International Space Station (ISS) in preparation for the installation of the Tranquility (or “Node 3”) module during the upcoming STS-130 space shuttle mission.

David Korth, Expedition 22 lead flight director, gave a walk through of the spacewalk that will be conducted by Russian cosmonauts Oleg Kotov and Maxim Suraev on January 14. The main objective of the almost six-hour-long spacewalk is to configure the Russian Poisk module, launched in November 2009, to serve as a vehicle docking module and as a backup airlock. The cosmonauts will also retrieve the last of three “biorisk” canisters installed on the outside of the station. On January 21, ISS crew members will move the Soyuz TMA-16 spacecraft from its current location — docked at the Zvezda Service Module — to Poisk. NASA TV will cover both events.

On a related issue, Pete Hasbrook, Expedition 22 increment manager, provided additional information on the steps being taken to address the ammonia hose problem encountered last week that could potentially delay the launch of STS-130. During testing, engineers found that the 14 foot long metal-braided hoses did not meet pressure requirements: “they saw the metal braids start to separate from the connector at the end of the hose.” Hasbrook reiterated that NASA has been considering all options to address this problem.

Over the weekend, NASA worked with the California-based company that made the hoses to “beef-up” the hoses to see if they can withstand the pressure. Alternatively, the Marshall Space Flight Center is looking into assembling “functionally equivalent hoses” from spare parts of those already used in the ISS. A third alternative would be to launch Tranquility as is on February 7 and fly replacement hoses up to ISS during a later mission.

NASA subsequently announced the rescheduling of STS-130 mission briefings in order to “allow more analysis of engineering data” with respect to the ammonia hose problem. Whether the launch date or the mission will be affected remains unclear.

The planned February 7 launch of Space Shuttle Endeavour on its STS-130 mission may slip due to a problem with a hose in the Tranquility module that the shuttle is taking up to the International Space Station (ISS).

NASA reported that “a high-pressure ammonia jumper hose assembly failed during a prelaunch test Thursday.” Four such hoses are to be connected to the ISS cooling system once the module is in orbit. NASA says that engineers are analyzing the situation and will know in “several days” whether the launch date will be affected.

Tranquility — formerly known as “Node 3” — will provide additional living space for the crew. It is perhaps best known for the naming contest NASA held for it. Comedian Stephen Colbert rallied his fans to send in his name and he won, but NASA decided to name it Tranquillity instead. As a consolation prize, the agency named a treadmill after Colbert and sent astronaut Sunita Williams to deliver the news on Colbert’s Comedy Central program, Colbert Nation. The Combined Operational Load-Bearing External Resistance Treadmill (COLBERT) was installed aboard the ISS last year.

The following events may be of interest in the coming week. For further information, see our calendar on the right menu or click on the links below. Note that times, dates and witnesses for congressional hearings are subject to change. Check the committee’s website for up-to-date information.

In Washington, DC

Thursday, January 14

• Seminar on Human Spaceflight and the Future of Space Science sponsored by the Space Policy Institute and the Universities Space Research Association. Madison Hotel, 1:00-5:30 pm.

Friday, January 15

• Space Transportation Association breakfast meeting with Jeff Hanley, manager of NASA’s Project Constellation. 7:30-9:00 am. To register, contact Rich Coleman at STA (see our calendar for an email link).

In Palo Alto, CA, Friday, January 15

• House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing on “The Impact of Export Controls on National Security, Science and Technological Leadership,” Stanford University, 11:00 am PST (2:00 pm EST)

In Irvine, CA, during the week

• Three panels of the NRC’s Decadal Survey on Biological and Physical Sciences in Space will meet at the NRC’s Beckman Center during the week. Some or all of the sessions may be closed. Our calendar on the right menu has links to NRC websites with further information.
  • Panel on Integrative and Translational Research for the Human System, January 12-14
  • Applied Physical Sciences Panel, January 13-14
  • Plant and Microbial Biology Panel, January 13-15

President Obama has only kept seven of the 19 space-related promises he made during his campaign according to Politifact’s “Truth-O-Meter.” Eight others are “in the works” and four are “stalled.” Politifact is a project of the St. Petersburg Times that tracks whether politicians are good to their word. As the President’s first year in office comes to a close, Politifact has finished rating his performance on promises about the space program to date. Here’s the scorecard. For more details and the reasoning behind the ratings, see the Politifact website.

Promises Kept (7)

• Add another space shuttle flight
• Use the private sector to improve space flight
• Partner to enhance the potential of the International Space Station
• Use the International Space Station for fundamental biological and physical research
• Explore whether International Space Station can operate after 2016
• Work toward deploying a global climate change research and monitoring system
• Enhance earth mapping

Promises “In the Works” (8)

• Speed up development of the next-generation space vehicle
• Work with international allies on Space Station
• Support human mission to moon by 2020
• Improve climate change data records
• Increase commercialization benefits from space technology
• Support commercial access to space
• Revise regulations for export of aerospace technology
• Establish school programs to highlight space and science achievements

Promises Stalled (4)

• Seek code of conduct for space-faring nations
• Re-establish the National Aeronautics and Space Council
• Conduct robust research and development on future space missions
• Increase spending to prepare for longer space missions

UPDATE: Gen. Bolden’s written speech is now available on NASA’s website and his actual presentation is on YouTube. Here is the paragraph that promises not to rob science to pay human space flight:

“I’m sure all of you would like to know what direction President Obama will choose for the future of our space program. All I can say for now is that NASA is working closely with the Executive Office of the President in helping him determine the best path forward. What I know, however, is that science is important to the President, important to NASA, and crucial to whatever way forward we are to follow. I can make you this commitment: the future of human spaceflight will not be paid for out of the hide of our science budget.”

ORIGINAL STORY:

NASA Administrator Charlie Bolden told the American Astronomical Society (AAS) today that NASA’s human space flight program– whatever it turns out to be — will not be paid for by cutting NASA’s science programs according to Science magazine’s blog, ScienceInsider. Bolden spoke at the AAS annual meeting being held this week in Washington, D.C. While he reportedly provided no specifics about the ongoing debate about the future of the human space flight program, ScienceInsider quoted him as saying that “I don’t think this president wants to be the president who presided over the end of (American) space flight.” As he has in most of his speeches, Bolden also highlighted the need to focus on science education.

The National Research Council’s (NRC’s) three “Decadal Surveys” appear to be on track for release this year or next. Astro2010 is expected to be released this summer, Biological and Physical Sciences in Space at the end of the year, and Planetary Sciences in spring 2011.

NRC Decadal Surveys prioritize scientific research in specific disciplines and recommend missions and related activities to be conducted within a budget envelope provided by the agencies that sponsor the studies. The studies are conducted by committees of experts appointed by the NRC who work over a period of about two years to reach consensus on the most compelling areas of science to pursue. The recommendations are followed pretty faithfully by the agencies requesting the studies. For more information on the history and purpose of Decadal Surveys, see “National Research Council” on our left menu.

• Astro2010 (astronomy and astrophysics). Chaired by Roger Blandford (Stanford), this study appears to be on track for release this summer. It is sponsored by NASA, NSF, and the Department of Energy’s Office of High Energy Physics. All of the committee’s panels have completed their meetings. Two closed meetings of the overarching “survey committee” – which writes the report – are scheduled for January 25-27 and February 28-March 2 at the NRC’s Beckman Center in Irvine, CA. As Dr. Blandford said in what he predicted would be his last “bulletin” to the community in September 2009:

… the deliberations of the panels and the survey committee remain confidential under the usual operational procedures of the NRC. With that in mind it seems unlikely further community bulletins will be necessary until the survey reports are published — scheduled for next summer. Once again, I must ask for your forbearance to be patient and respect this process. While I am sure many of us serving on various committees would like to tell you more about what is going on behind the scenes, the NRC process precludes us from doing so.

• Biological and Physical Sciences in Space. Co-chaired by Betsy Cantwell (Oak Ridge National Laboratory) and Wendy Kohrt (University of Colorado, Denver), the “microgravity” decadal appears to be on track for release at the end of the year. Sponsored by NASA, it is looking at research that needs to be conducted in microgravity (e.g., on the International Space Station) as well as partial gravity (e.g., on the lunar surface).

  In addition to meetings of the steering committee and seven panels, the committee has been holding “town hall” meetings to obtain input from a broad spectrum of researchers in these fields. The fourth and last will be held on January 6, 2010 in conjunction with the AIAA’s Aerospace Sciences meeting in Orlando, FL. Most of the panels will meet in person or via teleconference during January (see our calendar on the right menu for more details). The steering committee will meet from February 15-17 and March 31-April 2 at the NRC’s Beckman Center in Irvine, CA, probably in closed session.

• Planetary Sciences. Steve Squyres (Cornell) is chair of this third Decadal Survey, which is expected to be released in spring 2011. Dr. Squyres provides updates to the planetary sciences community, most recently on December 1 where he announced that the Aerospace Corporation had been selected to perform the Independent Cost Estimates (ICEs) now required for Decadal Surveys that recommend spacecraft missions. (Aerospace also is conducting the ICEs for Astro2010.)

  Representatives of each of the five panels provided updates on their activities at the December 2009 American Geophysical Union (AGU) meeting in San Francisco. The Powerpoint slides from three of the five panels are available at SpacePolicyOnline.com (the others will be added when they become available). The panels will continue to meet through the spring, as will the steering committee. The meetings are listed on our calendar on the right menu and at the NRC’s website. The Planetary Sciences Decadal Survey is sponsored by NASA and NSF.

NRC reports are subject to extensive, confidential, external peer review after they are drafted by the relevant study committee, meaning that the draft report must be completed many months before a report is finally released. It is always difficult to guess when a report will be released.

The NRC’s Report Review Committee (RRC) is the only entity that approves a report for release, not the committee writing it. Composed of members of the National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering, and Institute of Medicine, the RRC only signs off when it is satisfied the committee has produced a report worthy of the NRC imprimatur. Many find the NRC review process frustrating – especially since it takes place behind closed doors and people want to know what the report will say – but it is arguably one of the keys to the NRC’s reputation for excellence.

UPDATE: This article is updated to note that the House and Senate both are scheduled to meet at noon on January 5 to begin the second session of the 111th Congress. No legislative business is currently scheduled, however.

The following events may be of interest in the coming week. See our calendar on the right menu for further details or click on the links below.

January 3-7, Washington, DC

• American Astronomical Society meeting, Washington Marriott Wardman Park, 2660 Woodley Road, N.W. Sessions of particular interest to the space policy community include:
  • January 4, NSF Town Hall Meeting, 12:45 pm-1:45 pm
  • January 5, James Webb Space Telescope Town Hall Meeting, 11:30 am-12:30 pm
  • January 5, NASA Administrator Charlie Bolden, 12:30 pm-1:45 pm
  • January 6, NASA Astronaut John Grunsfeld (Hubble Repair Mission), 8:30 am-9:20 am
  • January 6, NASA Town Hall Meeting, 12:45 pm-1:45 pm

January 4-7, Orlando, FL

• AIAA Aerospace Sciences Meeting, Orlando World Center Marriott. The National Research Council’s Decadal Survey on Biological and Physical Sciences in Space will hold a Town Hall meeting on January 6 from 9:00 am to noon in Grand Ballroom 13.

As 2009 gives way to 2010 tomorrow night, the world will be treated to a Blue Moon. No, it won’t change color. A Blue Moon refers to the unusual circumstance of having two full moons in the same month. It happens sufficiently rarely that the phrase “once in a blue Moon” was coined to signal an unlikely event. Not THAT unlikely, though. According to the Associated Press, they occur about every two and a half years. Let’s hope it’s not prophetic — the space program has been singing the blues for far too long. Not to mention that the Moon has turned out to be a pretty exciting place — scientifically speaking!