Category: Commercial

Air Force RD-180 Alternatives Study Finds No Easy Answers

Air Force RD-180 Alternatives Study Finds No Easy Answers

By Marcia Smith | Posted: May 22, 2014 12:00 am ET | Last Updated: May 22, 2014 9:36 pm ET

A quick turnaround Air Force review panel assessing the impact on U.S. space launches if Russia’s RD-180 rocket engines no longer are available has found there are no easy remedies.

According to briefing charts obtained by SpacePoiicyOnline.com, between now and FY2017 the impacts of losing use of RD-180 engines are “significant” and “options to mitigate them are limited.”  The panel was chaired by Maj. Gen. (ret.) Mitch Mitchell.  Former NASA Administrator Mike Griffin was deputy chair and Gen. (Ret.) Tom Moorman was a senior advisor to the group.

One of the more interesting slides in the package is the “how did we get here” slide 8.  U.S. use of Russian rocket engines for a workhorse U,S. launch system was originally predicated on establishment of a U.S.-based co-production capability so that the engines could be produced here rather than relying on delivery from Russia. 

The United Launch Alliance (ULA) uses RD-180 engines to power the Atlas V rocket, one of the two U.S. “Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicles” or EELVs.  Delta IV is the other.  The two EELVs are used for most launches of national security satellites, as well as NASA and NOAA spacecraft.

As demonstrated in slide 8, DOD delayed the co-production requirement for the RD-180 engines for the Atlas rocket — originally built by General Dynamics, which was later bought by Lockheed Martin — throughout the late 1990s and 2000s.   The requirement never went into effect, so RD-180s continue to be manufactured in Russia and imported to the United States.  That is why Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin’s threat to prohibit using RD-180 engines to launch U.S. national security satellites is creating such concern.

ULA says it has a 2-year supply of the RD-180 engines already in the United States, but the Mitchell study points out that 56 percent of the EELV launches between now and 2020 are planned for the Atlas V.  While ULA has said satellites could be shifted to the Delta IV instead, the Mitchell study concludes that Delta IV production cannot be accelerated sufficiently to avoid launch delays.  It also concludes that “New Entrants” like SpaceX will not be ready in time to avoid delays.

In a worst case scenario where the last launch of an Atlas V with an RD-180 engine was today’s launch of a National Reconnaissance Office satellite (NROL-33), the study concludes that 31 launches could be delayed with a cost impact of $5 billion.  If all the RD-180 engines currently in the United States can be used, there would be 9 launch delays costing $2.5 billion.

The Mitchell study does not recommend reinstituting the co-production requirement, saying it is “doable but does not improve the current situation.”  Instead, it calls for U.S. production of a domestic liquid rocket engine and other mitigation actions.  The study calls for issuance of a DOD Acquisition Decision Memorandum (ADM) to develop a new liquid oxygen/hydrocarbon (LOx/HC) engine as well as a new generation launch vehicle.  It recommends creation of a joint DOD/NASA program office to manage “investment in a LOx/HC engine risk reduction phase ($141M)” and to provide “options for engines and new launch vehicles in support of Phase 3 EELV acquisition strategy.”  Phase 3 of the EELV acquisition strategy is for the years FY2023-2030.

The bottom line of the study is that actions are needed now, in FY2014, to “mitigate current risk and preserve future options.”

Today, the House passed the FY2015 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA, H.R. 4355), which includes about $200 million for development of a new liquid rocket engine.  The Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC) is expected to complete markup of its version of the NDAA tomorrow, but what it will say about a new rocket engine has not been made public.  Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) announced today, however, that the committee adopted one of his amendments that would prohibit future purchases of Russian rocket engines to launch national security satellites.  The appropriations committees in the House and Senate have not yet acted on the FY2015 defense appropriations bill.

Last Updated: May 22, 2014 9:36 pm ET
AJ-26 Rocket Engine Fails Test at Stennis, Impact on June 10 Launch Unknown

AJ-26 Rocket Engine Fails Test at Stennis, Impact on June 10 Launch Unknown

By Marcia Smith | Posted: May 22, 2014 12:00 am ET | Last Updated: May 22, 2014 11:26 pm ET

An AJ-26 rocket engine failed during a test at NASA’s Stennis Space Center today.  AJ-26 engines are used for Orbital Sciences Corporation’s Antares rocket.  The next launch of that rocket is scheduled for June 10 to take cargo to the International Space Station (ISS).

Orbital said in a statement that the test “terminated prematurely, resulting in extensive damage to the engine.”  NASASpaceflight.com, which is not a NASA website, cited unnamed sources as saying the engine “exploded.”

AJ-26 rocket engines are Russian NK-33 engines, built more than four decades ago, that are imported and refurbished by Aerojet-Rocketdyne for Antares.  Orbital developed Antares and its Cygnus spacecraft for NASA’s Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) or “commercial cargo” program to take cargo to the ISS.   All three Antares launches to date have been successful.

Orbital’s statement said that the engine was slated for a future Antares mission and it is “not known at this time whether this incident will have any effect” on the June 10 launch.

Last Updated: May 22, 2014 11:26 pm ET
Another Shoe Drops in SpaceX-Air Force/ULA Dispute

Another Shoe Drops in SpaceX-Air Force/ULA Dispute

By Marcia Smith | Posted: May 22, 2014 12:00 am ET | Last Updated: May 22, 2014 10:55 pm ET

SpaceX’s already heated debate with the Air Force (AF) and the United Launch Alliance (ULA) over the sole-source contract awarded to ULA in December 2013 ratcheted up another notch today.  SpaceX founder and Chief Designer Elon Musk implied in a series of tweets that the recent employment of an Air Force procurement official by Aerojet Rocketdyne was in exchange for that official awarding the contract to ULA.

The National Legal and Policy Center reported on May 18 that Roger “Scott” Correll, a recently retired Air Force procurement official involved in the ULA contract, has taken a job with Aerojet Rocketdyne, which provides rocket engines for one of ULA’s two Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicles (EELVs), the Delta IV.   (The other EELV, Atlas V, is under scrutiny for unrelated reasons associated with the fact that its RD-180 engines are supplied by Russia.)

SpaceX filed suit against the U.S. Government earlier this month on the basis that the contract should have been competed rather than awarded on a sole source basis.  Musk said via Twitter (@elonmusk) this evening that it was “V likely AF official Correll was told by ULA/Rocketdyne that a rich VP job was his if he gave them a sole source contract.”  In a separate tweet, Musk says “Reason I believe this is likely is that Correll first tried to work at SpaceX, but we turned him down.  Our competitor, it seems, did not.”  In a third tweet, Musk says that the issue deserves examination by the DOD Inspector General as part of an investigation already requested by Sen. John McCain (R-AZ).

Musk is trying to break into the national security space launch market.  SpaceX already conducts launches of its Falcon 9 rocket for NASA and for the commercial satellite industry.  The first step in getting Falcon 9 certified by the Air Force to compete as a “new entrant” in the national security space launch services business is to successfully complete three launches of the same version of the Falcon 9 rocket it intends to use for the Air Force. 

Those launches have been completed, but SpaceX and the Air Force disagree on how promptly the certification process is proceeding.   Air Force Space Command Commander Gen. William Shelton said at the Space Foundation’s Space Symposium in Colorado earlier this week that the Air Force has accepted the first launch, but is still analyzing the other two and in any case the three launches are “just openers.”  The Air Force also wants to make sure that SpaceX’s manufacturing and engineering processes “are right” and that it has “an auditable financial system.”  Overall, he argued, it takes time, money and people to complete the certification process and the Air Force is spending $60 million and has 100 people working on it, but SpaceX “cannot compete, will not compete, until they are certified.”

Last Updated: May 22, 2014 10:55 pm ET
Russian Commission Still Mystified by Cause of Proton Rocket Failure

Russian Commission Still Mystified by Cause of Proton Rocket Failure

By Marcia Smith | Posted: May 20, 2014 12:00 am ET | Last Updated: May 20, 2014 11:23 pm ET

The Russian commission investigating the Proton rocket failure on May 15, 2014 Eastern Daylight Time (May 16 local time in Russia) remains mystified by the cause of the third-stage malfunction.

Russia’s official Itar-Tass news agency reports today (May 20) that the head of the investigative commission, Alexander Danilyuk of Tsniiimash, said the guidance system “operated fault-free” and that the commission also ruled out “miscalculation.”  Meanwhile, RIA Novosti cited Russian space agency head Oleg Ostapenko as saying that a sharp pressure drop was detected in the third stage control engine’s piping, but the reason is unknown.

The Proton rocket’s third stage failed during launch of a Russian government communications satellite, Express-AM4R.   The third stage, the satellite, and the Briz-M upper stage all fell to Earth, mostly or completely burning up in the atmosphere.

Proton had a reputation as a very reliable rocket until a series of failures beginning in 2010.   Itar-Tass reported yesterday that since 2001, 74 of 82 Proton launches were successful, a success rate of 90 percent.  Of the eight failures, five were launching Russian government satellites and three were commercial launches arranged by International Launch Services, which markets the Proton rocket globally. 

The next Proton launch is scheduled for June 20, but may be postponed.  Ostapenko said decisions on each future launch will be taken individually and that “we will take all possible administrative and technical measures to avoid such incidents in the future.”

This was the 12th Russian rocket failure since December 2010 (see a SpacePolicyOnline.com list of those failures), involving not only Proton, but Soyuz, Rokot, and Zenit rockets.   The Russian government has fired both industry and government officials (including Ostapenko’s two predecessors) and reorganized its space industry in reaction to these failures, but they persist. 

Ostapenko hinted that more staff changes may be in the works.   He just took over as head of Russia’s space agency, Roscosmos, in October, replacing Vladimir Popovkin, who was fired after two years of trying fix the problems in the Russian space industry seen as the root cause of the failures.  Popovkin had been named Roscosmos director in 2011 after his predecessor, Anatoly Perminov, was fired when he was unable to stem the string of launch failures.

In addition to firing Popovkin in October, the Russian government announced a major reorganization of the aerospace industry that includes creation of a United Rocket and Space Corporation (URSC, or ORKK in Russian) to consolidate Russia’s major space companies.   Speaking at the Berlin Air Show today, URSC’s head, Igor Komarov, said there was a “serious systematic crisis” at Khrunichev, which manufactures the Proton rocket.  He said the consolidation of the industry would require 5-7 years and would be a major feature of the government’s $52 billion space program through 2020.

Last Updated: May 20, 2014 11:23 pm ET
SIA Reports Satellite Services and Manfacturing Revenue Up in 2013

SIA Reports Satellite Services and Manfacturing Revenue Up in 2013

By Marcia Smith | Posted: May 20, 2014 12:00 am ET | Last Updated: May 20, 2014 10:19 pm ET

The Satellite Industry Association (SIA) released its annual report on the state of the satellite industry yesterday.  Like the Space Foundation’s report on the space sector more broadly, also released yesterday, the SIA report is full of mostly good news.

The report, prepared for SIA by the Tauri Group, found that global revenues for the satellite industry in 2013 were $195.2 billion, up 3 percent from $188.8 billion in 2012.  Of the four segments of the satellite industry identified in the report, global revenues for only one — the satellite launch industry — fell compared to 2012.

  • Satellite services revenue,  $118.6 billion, up 5 percent
  • Satellite manufacturing, $15.7 billion, up 8 percent
  • Satellite launch industry, $5.4 billion, down 7 percent globally, although the U.S. share grew by 17 percent (from $2.0 to $2.4 billion)
  • Satellite ground equipment, $55.5 billion, up 1 percent

Satellite services in this report includes consumer services (television, radio and broadband); fixed satellite services (transponder agreements, managed network services), mobile satellite services (data, voice); and remote sensing/imaging services.  Satellite manufacturing is self explanatory.  Satellite launch industry includes launch services and launch vehicles.  Satellite ground equipment includes network equipment (e.g. gateways) and consumer equipment (e.g., satellite dishes).

The report is available on the SIA website.

Last Updated: May 20, 2014 10:19 pm ET
Space Foundation: Space Economy Grew by 4 Percent in 2013

Space Foundation: Space Economy Grew by 4 Percent in 2013

By Marcia Smith | Posted: May 19, 2014 12:00 am ET | Last Updated: May 19, 2014 9:36 pm ET

The Space Foundation released its annual report on the state of the space economy today.   It asserts that the global space economy grew by 4 percent in 2013 reaching a new record of $314.17 billion.

Government spending around the world accounts for less than a quarter of that amount, and was less in 2013 compared to 2012 “as significant cuts in the U.S. space budget were only partly offset by growth in the space budgets of other countries.” 

The reduction in U.S. Government space spending was both in civil and national security space primarily because of the sequester.  

NASA’s spending dropped from $17.77 billion in FY2012 to $16.85 billion in FY2013, for example.   (It rebounded to $17.65 billion for the current fiscal year, FY2014.)   Calculating how much the United States spends on national security space is a challenge since so much information is classified and space activities are not grouped together into a single account in the DOD budget.   The Space Foundation estimates that it was $21.72 billion in FY2013.   Adding in funding for other agencies like NOAA and NSF, it uses $41.257 billion as the total for U.S. government space spending in 2013, 9.4 percent less than 2012.

Even with that reduction, the U.S. space program overall still accounted for 55.7 percent of total government spending around the globe in 2013 according to the report.

The growth in the space economy was in the commercial sector.  The report concludes that of the $314.17 billion space economy in 2013:

  • 24 percent was government spending
    • 13 percent U.S.;
    • 11 percent non-U.S
  • 76 percent was commercial
    • 37 percent for commercial infrastructure and support industries;
    • 39 percent commercial space products and services

Commercial space infrastructure includes satellite manufacturing, launch services, space stations, ground stations, and associated equipment.    Commercial space products and services includes revenues from satellite broadcasting (television and radio), communications, and Earth observation.

In terms of the satellite launch industry, there were 81 orbital launch attempts in 2013, of which 78 were successful in placing their primary payloads into orbit.  The Space Foundation counts 23 of those as commercial launches, of which Russia conducted 12, the United States 6, Europe 4, and the multinational Sea Launch consortium 1. 

A brief summary of the report and information on how to purchase the full report is on the Space Foundation’s website.

Last Updated: May 19, 2014 9:36 pm ET
SpaceX CRS-3 Dragon Returns to Earth

SpaceX CRS-3 Dragon Returns to Earth

By Marcia Smith | Posted: May 18, 2014 12:00 am ET | Last Updated: May 18, 2014 3:20 pm ET

SpaceX’s Dragon spacecraft splashed down in the Pacific Ocean at 3:05 pm Eastern Daylight Time (12:05 pm Pacific) on May 18, bringing the company’s third operational International Space Station (ISS) cargo mission to a close except for returning the cargo to NASA.

Dragon brought 3,563 pounds of cargo back to Earth, including the results of scientific experiments conducted aboard the ISS.

Neither NASA nor SpaceX provided live TV coverage of the reentry and splashdown, with occasional tweets by SpaceX the only information available.   According to SpaceX, everything went fine.

NASA says that the “precious cargo” is to be extracted from Dragon and returned to Johnson Space Center in less than 48 hours.

Dragon was launched by SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket on April 18 and arrived at the ISS on April 20 delivering 2,500 pounds of supplies, equipment and scientific gear.  It was unberthed from the ISS using Canadarm2 at 9:26 am EDT this morning and moved away from the ISS using three engine burns.   The reentry burn was at 2:12 pm EDT.

Last Updated: May 18, 2014 3:20 pm ET
What's Happening in Space Policy May 19-25, 2014

What's Happening in Space Policy May 19-25, 2014

By Marcia Smith | Posted: May 18, 2014 12:00 am ET | Last Updated: May 19, 2014 8:26 am ET

Here is our list of upcoming space policy events for the week of May 19-25, 2014 and any insight we can offer about them.   The House and Senate are in the session this week.

During the Week

As the country gets ready to celebrate Memorial Day and honor those who gave their lives defending our country, Congress will be acting on the authorization bill for the Department of Defense (DOD).   The FY2015 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) will go before the House Rules Committee on Monday and Tuesday, with floor action expected later in the week.  Meanwhile the Senate Armed Services Committee (and its subcommittees) will be busy marking up its version of the bill. The DOD authorization bill is the only authorization bill that reliably gets passed year after year despite the many controversies therein.  A big issue this year, of course, is what to do about Russia’s threat to stop providing RD-180 engines for the Atlas V rocket.  The House wants to add about $200 million to start a U.S. program to build a new liquid rocket engine to replace it.  The Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC) will be debating it during markups this week.

Also on tap in the House this week is the FY2015 Commerce-Justice-Science (CJS) appropriations bill, which cleared committee on May 8.  It includes funding for NASA and NOAA.  NASA is slated to get a significant increase ($435 million) compared to the President’s request.   Appropriations being a zero sum game, that means other agencies in the CJS bill got less than the President requested.   Time will tell whether champions of the activities that were cut offer amendments to take money from what is recommended for NASA and restore it to the other programs.  NOAA’s satellite programs did comparatively well, though not its strategy for launching three sensors that do not fit on the JPSS spacecraft.  Last year Congress zeroed the “Polar Free Flyer” program and told NOAA to try again.  This year, it is the SIDAR program and House Appropriations zeroed it, too.

Other big events are — in the United States — the Space Foundation’s annual Space Symposium (formerly the National Space Symposium) in Colorado Springs, CO, and — In Europe — the Berlin Air Show in Berlin, Germany.

Lots of other interesting activities as well.  Here is the list of what we know about as of Sunday afternoon.

Monday, May 19

Monday-Tuesday, May 19-20

Monday-Thursday, May 19-22

Tuesday-Wednesday, May 20-21

Tuesday-Sunday, May 20-25

Wednesday, May 21

Wednesday-Friday, May 21-23

Last Updated: May 19, 2014 8:26 am ET
Nelson: SASC Will Deal with RD-180 Issue Next Week

Nelson: SASC Will Deal with RD-180 Issue Next Week

By Marcia Smith | Posted: May 15, 2014 12:00 am ET | Last Updated: May 15, 2014 6:35 am ET

In a speech on the Senate floor yesterday (May 14), Senator Bill Nelson (D-FL) said that the Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC) will take up the issue of how to respond to Russia’s declaration that its RD-180 rocket engines cannot be used for launching U.S. military spacecraft when it marks up the FY2015 defense authorization bill next week.

SASC’s Strategic Forces subcommittee will markup its portion of the FY2015 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) on May 20 and the full committee will markup the bill over the subsequent three days (May 21-23).  All sessions of the markup are closed to the public.

Nelson took to the floor to provide a brief history of cooperation between the United States and the Soviet Union/Russia in response to what he said were multiple questions by colleagues and the media.  Nelson has considerable expertise on space matters as chair of the Science and Space subcommittee of the Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee.  He also flew into space on a 1985 space shuttle mission when he was a member of the U.S. House of Representatives. 

What action SASC is contemplating was not mentioned.  Nelson laid out the issues and rued the fact that U.S.-Russian space cooperation is being impacted by geopolitical events since even during the Cold War the two countries managed to work together in space.  Citing the 1975 Apollo-Soyuz Test Project (ASTP) in particular, he noted that the leaders of the American and Russian crews, Gen. Tom Stafford (Ret.) and Gen. Alexei Leonov (Ret.), remain close friends today and are representative of the close ties between other American astronauts and Russian cosmonauts.  

Emphasizing the complexity of the issues posed if Russia bans sales of the RD-180 engines, he went on to explain that two of NASA’s commercial crew contenders, Boeing and Sierra Nevada, plan to use the Atlas V rocket for their CST-100 and Dream Chaser spacecraft. It is that rocket that uses Russia’s RD-180 engines and would be affected if Russia goes through with a threat issued by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin earlier this week to prohibit use of Russian rocket engines to launch U.S. military satellites.  While those are not military satellites, Nelson is worried that the ban could affect civilian launches, too. 

Rogozin’s threat was not only about the RD-180 engines for the Atlas V, but also Russia’s NK-33 engines used by Orbital Sciences Corporation for its Antares rockets.   Orbital has a large supply of those engines already in the United States that are refurbished by Aerojet Rocketdyne and redesignated AJ-26.  Antares currently is used only for NASA missions and since Orbital already has the engines here, it is not clear that Rozogin’s threats would disrupt those activities.

The Air Force has a study underway to examine options in case the RD-180s no longer are available. The United Launch Alliance (ULA), which produces and launches Atlas V, says that it has a two-year supply of those engines and could, if necessary, shift satellites to the more expensive Delta IV, which has American-made engines.  Nelson said that the topic “will be an issue” when SASC marks up the NDAA next week and if Rogozin follows through with the threat “we’re going to have to swing into action pretty quick.”

The House Armed Services Committee added about $200 million to the FY2015 Air Force budget to begin development of a new U.S. liquid rocket engine to replace the RD-180 when it marked up its version of the bill.   (The HASC Strategic Forces subcommittee added $220 million, which the full committee approved, but it also reduced that subaccount, Aerospace Propulsion, by $23 million for “liquid rocket engine combustion technologies and advanced liquid engine technologies.”)

Rogozin made his comments in response to sanctions imposed on him and other Russian government officials because of Russia’s actions in Ukraine.  He also said that Russia will have to think about whether to agree with NASA’s plans to extend operations of the International Space Station (ISS) beyond 2020.  He did say, however, that Russia needs the ISS until 2020, suggesting that there are no plans to impact ISS operations before then.   Indeed, three ISS crew members returned to Earth on Tuesday and three more are scheduled for launch on May 28.  Russia is the only country currently capable of transporting crews to and from the ISS since the United States terminated the space shuttle program in 2011.

Last Updated: May 15, 2014 6:35 am ET
Russia Suffers Another Proton Failure – UPDATE

Russia Suffers Another Proton Failure – UPDATE

By Marcia Smith | Posted: May 15, 2014 12:00 am ET | Last Updated: May 16, 2014 12:01 am ET

The launch of a Russian communications satellite, Ekspress-AM4R, on a Russian Proton-M rocket failed today (May 15, 2014 Eastern Daylight Time; May 16 local time in Russia), adding to the country’s increasing list of launch failures since 2010.  Russia’s Itar-Tass news agency reports that the problem occurred in the separation between the second and third stages.

Information is still coming in, but Itar-Tass is quoting an unnamed official at Russia’s space agency, Roscosmos, as saying the problem occurred between the separation of the second and third stages and contact with the Proton rocket “was lost in the 540th second after liftoff”  and “the nose cone did not separate from the rocket.”

Any remaining segments of the Proton-M rocket and its Briz-M upper stage and the satellite probably disintegrated in the upper layers of the atmosphere, Itar-Tass added later in the evening EDT, but small fragments could have made it back to Earth.   Officials were attempting to determine a likely impact area and initiating an investigation into the accident. 

The Ekspress-AM4R satellite was “the highest-powered and technologically” advanced communications satellite in this series.  Ironically, it was a replacement for the Ekspress-AM4 satellite that was stranded in transfer orbit in 2011 because of another launch anomaly.  Yet another in this series, Ekspress-MD2, was stranded in transfer orbit along with an Indonesian communication satellite in 2012.   Ekspress-AM4R was built by Airbus Space and Defence (formerly Astrium) and was insured for 2.5 billion rubles according to Itar-Tass.

Check back here for updates as more information becomes available.   We have a fact sheet of Russian launch failures since December 2010 posted on our website.

Last Updated: May 16, 2014 12:01 am ET

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