UPDATE 3: Latest from DLR (as of 10:00 pm EDT) is that ROSAT will renter any time now (or has already) between 0:30 GMT (which has passed) and 03:30 GMT (11:30 pm EDT). DLR (@DLR_en) tweeted that it will not reenter over Europe, Africa or Australia. USSTRATCOM says 02:04 GMT (10:04 pm EDT) plus or minus 2 hours.

UPDATE 2: Latest from DLR: between 23:30 UTC (7:30 pm EDT) today, Saturday, and 05:00 UTC (1:00 am EDT) tomorrow, Sunday. DLR (@DLR_en)tweets that “taking into account the most recent data, ROSAT will not reenter over Europe.”

UPDATE: Latest prediction from U.S. Strategic Command via the Space-Track website is October 23, 02:34:00 GMT (October 22, 10:34 pm EDT) plus or minus 7 hours.

ORIGINAL STORY: The latest predictions of when Germany’s ROSAT x-ray astronomy satellite will reenter show it will happen sometime today or tomorrow (Saturday-Sunday, October 22-23).

The U.S. government’s latest prediction at Space-Track shows the reentry period on October 23 at 01:31:00 GMT plus or minus 14 hours. That’s tonight, October 22, at 9:30 pm EDT. With a window of plus or minus 14 hours, that could make reentry anytime between right now and 11:30 am tomorrow EDT.

The German Aerospace Center’s (DLRs) website says it will reenter between October 22 at 18:00 UTC (which is the same as GMT) and October 23 at 12:00 UTC. That would be between this afternoon at 2:00 pm EDT and tomorrow morning at 8:00 am EDT.

The chances are extremely small that any one individual — you — would be hit by the debris, especially since the Earth is 70 percent covered with water, but there is a risk. The exact time and place of reentry cannot be predicted with precision. The major piece of ROSAT that is causing concern is its 1.7 metric ton main mirror, which is expected to survive the heat of reentry intact, unlike most satellite reentries where the spacecraft breaks up into many small pieces.

ROSAT does not have a propulsion system, so its path is dependent on natural forces.

The launch of Europe’s first two Galileo navigation satellites has been rescheduled to tomorrow morning, Friday, October 21, at 6:30 am EDT.

The launch was postponed this morning because of a leak during fueling.

The precise launch time tomorrow is 06:30:26 EDT. This is the first time Russia’s Soyuz rocket will be launched from France’s launch site in Kourou, French Guiana.

The Soyuz rocket lifted off on time from Kourou this morning at 6:30 am EDT.

This is the first launch of Russia’s Soyuz rocket from the French launch site on the coast of South America. Its payload today is the first two Galileo satellites for Europe’s navigation satellite system. Galileo will be similar to the U.S. Global Positioning System (GPS) and will be interoperable with it and Russia’s system, GLONASS.

UPDATE: Spaceflightnow.com reports at 5:26 am EDT October 20 that the launch has been scrubbed for today “after an anomaly during fueling of the Soyuz rocket’s third stage,” citing the French space agency CNES. ESA issued a press release at 5:36 am EDT confirming the launch has been scrubbed and saying that a new launch date will be announced later today.

At 6:34 am EDT tomorrow, Europe will launch two verification satellites for its Galileo navigation satellite system. The pair will be boosted into orbit by Russia’s Soyuz launch vehicle, the first such launch from the French launch site in Kourou, French Guiana.

Europe is heralding both events.

Galileo is a joint program between the European Union and the European Space Agency (ESA). Like the U.S. Global Positioning System (GPS), a total of 24 satellites are needed for the system to provide global three-dimensional (latitude, longitude, altitude) coverage, so this launch is only a first step. These two satellites are In-Orbit Validation (IOV) versions. Galileo is designed to be interoperable with GPS and Russia’s navigation satellite system, GLONASS.

A joint Russian-European agreement to launch Soyuz rockets from Kourou was signed in 2003. For Europe, Soyuz provides a medium-class launch vehicle to be paired with Europe’s large Ariane V and small Vega launch vehicles so a full range of launch services can be offered. The Vega rocket is expected to make its first flight very soon. Europe’s launches are conducted by the European company Arianespace, of which the French space agency is a 34 percent shareholder.

For Russia, Kourou offers a land-based launch site that is advantageous for placing satellites into equatorial and low inclination orbits. Kourou is located at 5 degrees North latitude, very close to the equator on the northern coast of South America. A low latitude launch site means that less fuel is needed to place a satellite into an equatorial orbit. That in turn means the satellite can weigh more than if it were launched an on equivalent rocket further North or South. By comparison, Russia’s most southern land-based launch facility, Baikonur (which it leases from Kazakhstan) is at 46 degrees North latitude. ESA notes that the Soyuz payload capability to geostationary transfer orbit from Kourou is almost twice that of a launch from Baikonur: 3 metric tons versus 1.7 metric tons.

The basic Soyuz rocket design dates back to the early 1960s; Russia has several versions in service today. The version being launched from Kourou is part of the Soyuz-2 series and uses a Fregat upper stage. It is designated VS01 by Arianespace. The failure of a slightly different version of the Soyuz (Soyuz U) in August that was taking a Progress cargo spacecraft to the International Space Station attracted a lot of headlines, but the Soyuz has quite a good track record over its multi-decade history.

Although launching from Kourou is particularly advantageous for equatorial launches, the Galileo satellites actually are headed for a fairly high inclination orbit, 54.7 degrees, but the mass of the two satellites does not require use of an Ariane V.

The launch will be webcast live

The German Aerospace Center (DLR) has updated its prediction for when the ROSAT satellite will reenter.

The German-US-UK ROentgen SATellite (ROSAT) will make an uncontrolled reentry between October 21 and 24. This is a slightly narrower time window than the last prediction, which lasted until October 25. The x-ray astronomy satellite was launched in 1990 and does not have its own propulsion system.

DLR estimates that 30 individual pieces of the satellite could survive the heat of reentry, including its 1.7 ton main mirror. The debris could fall anywhere between 53 degrees North latitude and 53 degrees South latitude, bearing in mind that 70 percent of the Earth’s surface is covered with water so the threat to populated areas is less than one might imagine.

The German Aerospace Center’s (DLR’s) most recent prediction for reentry of its ROSAT satelite is between October 21 and 25.

DLR estimates that 30 individual pieces of the satellite could survive the heat of reentry, including its 1.7 ton main mirror.

The ROetngen SATellite (ROSAT) was an x-ray astronomy satellite. Launched in 1990, it is in a 53 degree inclined orbit, meaning that it travels between 53 degrees North latitude and 53 degrees South latitude. The satellite does not have a propulsion system. Like many other satellites, including NASA’s Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) last month and countless pieces of space debris routinely, it will make an uncontrolled reentry.

Debris could fall anywhere along the defunct satellite’s orbital path within an 80 kilometer (50 mile) wide swath of that path according to DLR. The precise time and place for reentry cannot be calculated with precision, but it is important to bear in mind that 70 percent of the Earth’s surface is covered with water. DLR estimates the chance of “someone somewhere on Earth getting injured is about 1 in 2000.”

ROSAT was a cooperative program among Germany, the United States and the United Kingdom.

In addition to DLR’s ROSAT reentry website, and the websites of amateur satellite observers such as Heavens-Above.com and Zarya.info, New Scientist reports that a team of programmers in Australia have designed an iPhone App — ROSAT Reentry — for those who want to follow the action.

Rep. Frank Wolf (R-VA) wrote a letter to Attorney General Eric Holder today asking him to hold Presidential Science Adviser John Holdren “to full account” for discussing science and technology cooperation with China in violation of the law.

The letter follows on a Government Accountability Office (GAO) finding earlier this week that Holdren’s Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) violated section 1340 of the FY2011 Department of Defense and Full-Year Continuing Resolution (CR) by holding meetings in May with the Chinese. GAO found that the meetings violated the law’s prohibition on OSTP or NASA spending any funds provided by the law to engage in such activities. OSTP spent $3,500 on the meetings, and since they violated the CR, they were not appropriated. Under the Anti-Deficiency Act, federal departments and agencies cannot obligate funds they do not have, and therefore GAO determined that OSTP violated the Anti-Deficiency Act.

Rep. Wolf also wrote to Holdren today, noting that the two had spoken on the phone yesterday wherein Holdren promised Rep. Wolf that either he or the White House General Counsel would call Rep. Wolf back by the end of the day, but no call was received. Rep. Wolf chairs the Commerce-Justice-Science subcommittee of the House Appropriations Committee that funds OSTP as well as NASA.

In his letter to the Attorney General, Rep. Wolf asked the Justice Department to rescind a September 19 memorandum it issued that argued section 1340 infringed upon the President’s constitutional power to conduct foreign policy, and to “hold Dr. Holdren to full account for his violation of the Anti-Deficiency Act by ensuring that he complies with all reporting requirements and other provisions of that law.”

In its letter to Rep. Wolf, GAO insisted that “It is not our role nor within our province to opine upon or adjudicate the constitutionality of duly enacted statutes,” but “In our view, legislation that was passed by Congress and signed by the President … is entitled to a heavy presumption in favor of constitutionality.”

CORRECTION: The estimate for the likelihood of an individual being hit by debris from the UARS satellite last month has been corrected. See editor’s note at bottom.

For those who enjoyed following the reentry of NASA’s Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) last month, another opportunity is coming up next week. Germany’s ROentgen SATellite (ROSAT) is expected to reenter between October 20 and October 25.

Like UARS, ROSAT was launched two decades ago when issues about satellite reentries and space debris were of less concern. Neither satellite had its own propulsion system to allow for a controlled reentry. Both incorporated components that are expected to survive the heat of reentry and reach Earth’s surface.

UARS circled the Earth at a 57 degree inclination, while ROSAT’s inclination is 53 degrees. In both cases, that takes the satellite over the most populated areas of the Earth (between 53 degrees north latitude and 53 degrees south latitude in the case of ROSAT), but the Earth is 70 percent covered with water, so the chance of it hitting a populated area is less than one might initially assume.

ROSAT’s mission was x-ray astronomy. Launched in 1990, it operated through 1999. The United States and the United Kingdom were partners with Germany in the project, and it was launched by a U.S. Delta II from Cape Canaveral, Florida.

Germany’s space agency, DLR, has a website with information about the reentry. It says that 30 individual pieces could survive. The largest fragment is the telescope’s mirror “which is very heat resistant and may weigh up to 1.7 tons.” The debris footprint is estimated at 80 kilometers (50 miles) wide.

As with UARS and any uncontrolled satellite reentry, there is no way to predict with certainty where the reentry will occur other than the boundaries established by the inclination of the orbit. DLR estimates the probability of “someone somewhere on Earth getting injured is about 1 in 2,000.” The comparable number for UARS was 1 in 3,200, which analysts pointed out did not mean that a particular individual had that likelihood of being hit. The chance of “a” person — YOU — being hit by UARS debris was about 1 in 20 trillion according to a September 19 tweet by The Weather Channel. UARS reentered over the Pacific Ocean and there have been no credible reports of damage or injuries.

Editor’s Note: The estimate of the likelihood of a particular person like you being hit by UARS debris as cited by a tweet from the Weather Channel (@twcspacewx) on Sept. 19 was 1 in 20 trillion, not 1 in 20 million as earlier stated in this article.

The website of the British newspaper The Daily Telegraph and the French news agency AFP are reporting that Iran’s deputy science minister acknowledged today that the country failed in an attempt to launch a monkey into space last month.

The story in The Telegraph quotes Iran’s deputy science minister Mohammed Mehdinejad-Nouri as saying “The Kavoshgar-5 rocket carrying a capsule with a live animal (a monkey) was launched during Shahrivar…However, the launch was not publicised as all of its anticipated objectives were not accomplished…” The newspaper said that Shahrivar is an Iranian month spanning August 23 – September 22. AFP carries the same story.

Iran launched its first satellite into orbit in February 2009; it reentered in April 2009. At the time, an Iranian official said the country planned to launch a person into space “before 2021.”

The Government Accountability Office (GAO) has found that the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is in violation of a provision of the FY2011 Department of Defense and Full Year Continuing Resolution (CR) with regard to contacts with China, according to the office of Congressman Frank Wolf (R-VA).

Rep. Wolf chairs the House Appropriations Commerce-Justice-Science subcommittee, which funds OSTP, as well as NASA, NOAA and other agencies. In an email message, Rep. Wolf’s office provided the letter he wrote to GAO in May and GAO’s reply dated today.

GAO found that OSTP is in violation of the Anti-Deficiency Act for spending $3,500 in connection with an Innovation Dialogue and a U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue in May 2011 in violation of Sec. 1340 of the CR (P.L. 112-10). Since the CR prohibited the use of funds for such meetings, the expenditure was in excess of appropriated funds, triggering the Anti-Deficiency Act. That Act essentially says that federal departments and agencies cannot obligate money they do not have.

In its report, GAO cites discussions it had with OSTP wherein OSTP did not dispute that it engaged in activities in contravention of Sec. 1340. Instead, OSTP argued that the law was an “unconstitutional infringement on the President’s constitutional prerogatives in foreign affairs.” GAO insisted that “It is not our role nor within our province to opine upon or adjudicate the constitutionality of duly enacted statutes…”; that is the province of the courts. The government watchdog agency went on to say, however, that “In our view, legislation that was passed by Congress and signed by the President … is entitled to a heavy presumption in favor of constitutionality.”

Rep. Wolf is a long-standing and vocal opponent of cooperating with China because of its human rights abuses. He included Sec. 1340 in the law so that any such cooperation and any steps leading to it requires congressional authorization first. The exact language of the section is as follows:

“None of the funds made available by this division may be used for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration or the Office of Science and Technology Policy to develop, design, plan, promulgate,implement, or execute a bilateral policy, program, order, or contract of any kind to participate, collaborate, or coordinate bilaterally in any way with China or any Chinese-owned company unless such activities are specifically authorized by a law enacted after the date of enactment of this division.”