UPDATE 2, October 10:  The MIT students will hold a Reddit Ask Me Anything (AMA) session from 3:00-6:00 pm ET today to answer questions about their analysis (username: MarsOneAnalysis).  The AMA can be accessed at:  http://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/2ivo0t/we_are_the_authors_of_the_mit_mars_one/.  They also have posted an Open Letter to further explain their purpose and conclusions.  If we learn of Mars One holding any similar public discussion, we will be happy to spread the word on that as well.

UPDATE:  This October 7, 2014  article was updated on October 8 with a response from Mars One co-founder and CEO Bas Lansdorp.  On October 9, Mr. Lansdorp added a comment to the DisQus feature of this website explaining some of his concerns about the MIT analysis.

An analysis by a team of MIT students of the Mars One concept to send people to Mars on one-way missions to establish a settlement there offers a bleak picture of the outcome.  The paper was presented at the International Astronautical Congress (IAC2014) in Toronto last week.

Sydney Do, Koki Ho, Samuel Schreiner, Andrew Owens and Olivier de Weck conducted “An Independent Assessment of the Technical Feasibility of the Mars One Mission Plan” supported by grants from NASA and the Josephine de Karman Fellowship Trust.

The team looked at the Mars One plan as outlined in public sources, especially its assertions that a sustainable society on Mars can be established beginning in the 2020s using existing technology.  A “pre-deployment” phase between 2018 and 2023 would send robotic precursors and establish a crew “habitat” on the surface to await the first crew, which would be launched in 2024.  Additional four-person crews and habitats would be launched at every 26-month opportunity thereafter.

Because many details of the Mars One plan are not available, the MIT team made a number of assumptions that are comprehensively explained in order to conduct their analysis.

Some of the key conclusions of the study are that:

• Mars One’s claim that “no new major developments or inventions are needed” does not withstand scrutiny and that assessment is only for the habitation, life support, in-situ resource utilization and space transportation technologies.   The MIT team notes that they did not address other required systems such as entry, descent and landing (EDL), the power system architecture, or the surface-to-orbit communications strategy.
• The Mars One estimate of the number of launches needed for the pre-deployment phase is “overly optimistic.”  The best scenario would require 15 Falcon Heavy launches to establish the first crew on Mars according to the MIT analysis.
• If crops grown on Mars are the only food source, they will “produce unsafe oxygen levels in the habitat” resulting in the first crew fatality after about 68 days due to “suffocation from too low an oxygen partial pressure within the environment,”  the consequence of a complex series of events stemming from overproduction of oxygen by the plants.
• The MIT team postulated solutions to that problem that are not part of the Mars One plan (e.g. relying on stored food brought from Earth, creating a separate plant growing facility, or using yet-to-be invented oxygen removal technology).  If a way were found to sustain a Mars One habitat for 130 months, the paper concludes that spare parts would require 62 percent of the mass brought from Earth over that period of time.

The lead author, Sydney Do, a Ph.D. candidate in aeronautics and astronautics at MIT, said via email that in his view “the Mars One Concept is unsustainable” because of the current state of technology and its “aggressive expansion approach” of quickly adding more and more people rather than keeping the settlement at a fixed size for a period of time.

The paper acknowledges that the study was based on “the best available information” and the team is willing to update their analysis if more information becomes available.

MarsOne co-founder and CEO Bas Lansdorp, in an email to SpacePolicyOnline.com on October 8, said that while he welcomed the students’ analysis, his company does not have time to respond to all the questions it receives from students and “the lack of time for support from us combined with their limited experience results in incorrect conclusions.”

Editor’s Note:  Mr. Lansdorp’s October 8 email discusses several areas where he believes the MIT analysis is incorrect.  We encouraged him to post his entire comment to our website’s DisQus feature, but he declined.  We responded that if he does post his entire reaction elsewhere (perhaps on the Mars One site), we will be happy to include a link to it.

Editor’s Note 2:  On October 9, Mr. Lansdorp did, indeed, add a comment to the DisQus feature of this website explaining his concerns.  It can be found in the comment stream labeled “Bas Lansdorp.”

Bigelow Aerospace plans to make being an astronaut less special because there will be so many of them promised the company’s Washington representative Mike Gold.  Gold was one of the panelists at a session of the 2014 International Astronautical Congress (IAC2014) today (October 2) on what’s next after the International Space Station (ISS).

As has been typical at this IAC, top level representatives of Russia and China are not here to participate in plenary sessions because of visa issues, but others from those countries were able to attend to present papers in technical sessions.  In this case, Zhao Yuqi of China’s Manned Spaceflight Agency was absent from this post-ISS plenary.  Nonetheless, the panel provided a broad array of viewpoints, from Gold’s private sector perspective, to Bill Gerstenmaier from NASA, to Hansjörg Dittus from the German space agency DLR, to German former astronaut Ernst Messerschmid, currently a professor at the Universität Stuttgart.

If there was one message from all of them it was that the International Space Station (ISS), while an outstanding success with tremendous potential, will be one-of-a-kind.

Dittus made a case for a modular approach to future space facilities where the modules are not linked together as they are in ISS.  He advocates a separation of tasks in separate modules to avoid complex international agreements and technical interfaces.   He also thinks the modules should be equipped as observatories, especially for earth remote sensing, not as laboratories.

The panelists were asked if they were told to build a space station again, would they build another ISS.  Gerstenmaier, who heads NASA’s Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate, said that if someone gave him the money to build another low Earth orbit (LEO) space station “I’d give it back.”  His message was that NASA and its ISS partners are demonstrating that there is a reason for others – the private sector – to go there, but another government-sponsored LEO space station is “not what we need to do.”  Instead “we’re going to explore.”

Messerschmid outlined technologies that will enable exploration, advocating “To Mars, together.”

Gold, who can be counted on for pithy observations replete with references to Star Trek, did not disappoint.  Among his major messages was that just as countries need to work together, so do companies.  He argued against pitting “new space” against “old space” because “the pie is too small.”  Borrowing a quote from Benjamin Franklin, he said “if we don’t hang together, we will surely hang separately.”   Later, when questions turned to the appropriate degree of risk taking for human spaceflight programs, he quoted “a famous Canadian, William Shatner” who said in his role as Captain Kirk of the Federation Starship Enterprise “Risk?  It’s why we’re here.”  Gold went on to talk about financial risk, and noted that a Russian colleague ruefully commented to him that Russian billionaires buy yachts while American billionaires create space companies.

Regarding risk, Gerstenmaier explained the three-tier approach NASA is using to describe the steps away from Earth:  Earth Reliant in LEO where crews can return home in hours; Proving Ground in cis-lunar space where getting home requires many days; and Earth Independent when the tie to Earth is broken.  He said NASA was not ready from a risk standpoint to send crews to an asteroid in its native orbit (as President Obama initially directed), but the Asteroid Retrieval Mission, where the crews will be in the Proving Ground region, is the right step – not too much risk, nor too little.

In a philosophical moment, Gerstenmaier talked about how ISS crew members landing in Kazakhstan say they are “home” no matter where on Earth they are from.  “We have changed the definition of home,” he said, where “home” is Earth.   He said his vision is that someday LEO or cis-lunar space will be “home.”

In response to a question about whether there is a future for young people to be astronauts, Gold said “I want to see a day when being an astronaut is something you do to make a living,” not an elite profession.   Bigelow is committed to making astronauts “not special” because there will be so many of them and from all over the world.   He noted that right now there are six seats for ISS crews, three of which are occupied by Russians, two by Americans, and one by other countries.  “One seat for all the other countries?” Bigelow “is determined to change that,” he exclaimed.

Gerstenmaier took a different tack, stressing that one does not need to be an astronaut.  What is important is being part of a high performing team:  “If you’re lucky, you get to be at the pointy end of the rocket, but it is just as rewarding to be one of the engineers sitting in the back.”

The question of cooperating with China arose as it often does in these settings.  Gerstenmaier pointed out that under current law NASA cannot discuss human space cooperation with China, but expressed hope that the situation may change in the future.  Gold agreed that if mutual benefit can be shown, the China door may open, but for now China is the “third rail” of export control politics.  Although changes are being made to the International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR), they do not apply to China, he pointed out.

Editor’s note:  this is our final IAC2014 report.  The conference continues tomorrow, but we must depart.

The 2014 International Astronautical Congress (IAC2014) kicked off in Toronto, Canada today (September 29).  The highlight was a panel of space agency heads from around the world, but the biggest space policy news was the absence of representatives from China and Russia.

The printed program included Xu Dazhe, Administrator of the China National Space Administration, and Denis Lyskov, Deputy Head of Russia’s Roscosmos (representing Roscosmos Head Oleg Ostapenko) as participants in a “Heads of Agencies” panel discussion this afternoon.   Instead, the panel included representatives only of the U.S., European, Japanese, Canadian, Indian and Mexican space agencies.

When asked how the panel could discuss international cooperation when two of the major space nations were missing, moderator Berndt Feuerbacher, a past president of the International Astronautical Federation (IAF), emphasized that it was not what organizers had planned.   Both countries were unable to attend because of visa problems, he indicated.  During a later press conference, Walter Natynczyk, President of the Canadian Space Agency (CSA), said he had no details on the nature of the visa problems.   He only learned about it 48 hours in advance, he added, and was not provided with any details from Canada’s foreign ministry, which handles such matters.

IAF is one of the three organizations that sponsors the annual IAC, which also includes the International Academy of Astronautics (IAA) and the International Institute of Space Law (IISL).  The IAF, IAA and IISL presidents jointly proclaimed the beginning of IAC2014 after a two-hour opening ceremony that included three Canadian government astronauts and Cirque du Soleil performers.  Cirque du Soleil is a Canadian company whose founder, Guy Laliberté, is Canada’s first “spaceflight participant” or space tourist.  He flew to the International Space Station (ISS) in 2009 and is jokingly referred to as the “first clown in space” for wearing a clown’s nose during portions of the mission.  He appeared in a pre-recorded interview.  Canadian astronaut, Chris Hadfield, now retired, who rose to fame due to his social media outreach and rendition of David Bowie’s Space Oddity while aboard the ISS, rallied the troops at the end of the morning event.

During a press conference following the afternoon “Heads of Agencies” panel session, reporters attempted to elicit information from NASA Administrator Charlie Bolden on Sierra Nevada’s protest of the Commercial Crew Transportation Capability (CCtCAP) contract and whether the protest could affect work by Boeing and SpaceX, the two companies selected for the contract.  Bolden answered firmly that he was not allowed to comment while the protest is underway.

A few news tidbits did emerge from the panel discussion and press conference.   Noaki Okumura, President of the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), said in response to a question that the Japanese government will not decide until 2016 whether to agree with NASA’s proposal to extend the life of the ISS to 2024.   CSA’s Natynczyk said the Canadian government has agreed to funding through 2020.  CSA’s focus now is to maximize life sciences research on ISS and will examine the value proposition of that research before asking the government for an extension.   Jean-Jacques Dordain, Director General of the European Space Agency (ESA), said that ESA is still deciding on NASA’s previous request to extend operations to 2020, a topic that will be on the agenda of ESA’s December 2014 ministerial meeting.  Only once that decision is formally made by ESA’s member states will it consider the new request.

Also on the agenda of ESA’s December ministerial meeting is what new launcher ESA should build.  Dordain stressed that, in his opinion, ESA needs a family of launchers, but exactly what ESA will do is a decision to be made by the member states, not by him.  When asked whether the decisions on extending ISS and on a new launcher might conflict, with the ministers choosing one or the other, Dordain said no, they are not in competition with each other.    It is not an a la carte menu, he joked, but “cheese AND dessert.”

Dordain indicated that ESA cooperation with Russia has not been impacted by sanctions imposed on Russia by European countries because of Russia’s actions in Ukraine.  Bolden added that ISS demonstrates that countries can cooperate together in space even when geopolitical tensions on Earth flare.

Bolden was asked about recent comments by Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin that Russia is planning to spend $8 billion on ISS through 2025 and whether that is a signal that Russia is, in fact, committed to extending ISS.  Bolden replied that 2025 is the end of their budget cycle and a budget request for that cycle has been submitted to Russia’s Duma.  That is all.   “You shouldn’t read too much into it,” he cautioned.

K. Radhakrishnan, Chairman of the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO), was awarded the IAF’s prestigious Allan D. Emil Award at the opening ceremony this morning, and received accolades during the panel session for ISRO’s successful Mars Orbiter Mission (MOM), which entered orbit around Mars last week.  Four of MOM’s five scientific instruments already have been switched on, he said, and images are being returned from MOM’s camera.  Radhakrishnan spoke of the broad array of space activities ISRO is planning for the remainder of the decade, including space science, but India’s main focus continues to be space applications including navigation and communications.

Francisco Javier Mendieta Jimenéz, Director General of the recently established Mexican Space Agency, spoke enthusiastically about Mexico’s plans in space, which will focus in the near term on earth observation for disaster management.  Stressing that Mexico is an emerging economy, he explained that three crucial elements of the Mexican space program will be technology transfer, training, and capacity building.   Mexico will host the 2016 IAC.