Category: International

Another Countdown to Shutdown Underway As FY2014 Draws Near

Another Countdown to Shutdown Underway As FY2014 Draws Near

Fiscal Year 2014 begins exactly a week from today and there is still no end game in sight for the political wrangling to keep the government open.  The situation is unchanged from a day ago, or even a week ago, except that the deadline is closing in.

To keep the government operating after midnight September 30, the House and Senate must agree on a funding measure that President Obama is willing to sign into law.  All three must accept it.

The House passed a version of a FY2014 Continuing Resolution (CR) that includes a provision – defunding the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) — that it knew the Senate would not accept and the President would not sign.  Senate Democrats and enough Senate Republicans do not want a government shutdown and plan to pass a “clean” version of a CR that simply keeps the government operating at current levels.  The Senate bill reportedly will fund the government through November 15, not December 15 like the House bill because the Senate remains hopeful that the 12 regular appropriations bills can clear Congress and be signed into law before then.

A small faction of Senate Republicans — notably Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Mike Lee (R-UT) — however, are determined to fight.   This afternoon Cruz began what is expected to be a marathon floor speech that seems a lot like a filibuster, though it is not a filibuster since it is not preventing the Senate from proceeding with legislative business.  Democrats reportedly have enough Republican votes to end a real filibuster if one were to materialize, which is considered highly unlikely.

At the moment, the Senate is expected to vote on a clean CR tomorrow afternoon, but the timing is subject to change.  The bill then must go back to the House where its fate is very uncertain.  Although the House Republican Leadership — Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) and Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA) — both also do not want a government shutdown, they are struggling to maintain control of a sizable group of Republican members who are not concerned about shutting down the government, believing that they were elected to get rid of Obamacare.  (Defunding it does not repeal the law, however, it only keeps government agencies from spending money to implement it.)  The leadership reportedly is trying to convince them that the funding bill is not the place to wage that battle.

Threats of a government shutdown have become so common that it can be difficult to take any of this political drama seriously, but trying to guess what Congress will do is a perilous business.  For agencies like NASA, NOAA and DOD, it means trying to manage complex, long-term programs amidst continuing uncertainty.

Options for Military Satellite Communications Debated

Options for Military Satellite Communications Debated

The latest installment of the “A Day Without Space” series, sponsored by the George C. Marshall Institute and the TechAmerica Space Enterprise Council focused on the pressures felt by the Department of Defense (DOD) to ensure its military satellite communications (MILSATCOM) systems respond to demands for cost reduction, improved performance, and reduced vulnerabilities.

Thursday’s “The Future of MILSATCOM” panel discussion outlined the challenges MILSATCOM faces and strategies to address them using a new report by Todd Harrison of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments as its basis.

As the Obama Administration has been stressing for years, the space domain today is “contested, congested and competitive.”  More than 40 countries have space-based assets and more than 1,000 active satellites along with over 21,000 objects of man-made debris are being tracked in orbit.  This crowded region is being contested as countries develop technologies that challenge U.S. space capabilities, including China’s highly visible demonstration of an anti-satellite (ASAT) capability in 2007.

According to Harrison, the current threats to MILSATCOM systems can be divided into three groups.  The first group includes physical attacks on satellite constellations either by kinetic impactors, like China’s 2007 ASAT test, or directed energy attacks, such as high-powered lasers and microwave systems that can degrade or damage critical satellite components like solar arrays and sensors.   Another type of physical attack on MILSATCOM systems might not be directed at the satellites, but at their ground stations causing similar disruption in communications in a less expensive manner.

The second group of threats identified by Harrison is electronic attacks that can jam the capabilities to uplink or downlink data and commands between ground stations and satellites.  The third group is cyber-attacks.   Harrison said in his report that adversaries could  “gain access to a system to monitor the flow of data and discern sensitive operational details, such as location of users and which users are communicating with each other.” Another form of cyber-attack that could be more damaging mentioned in his report was “If an adversary were able to take control of a satellite, for example, it could shut down all communications, move the satellite to a different orbit, or even destroy the satellite by expending its fuel supply or damaging its electronics.”  Harrison concludes that the threats of most concern are an adversary gaining control of satellite systems, uplink jamming, and assaults on ground stations.

In order to address the challenges and threats of a more crowded and contested space domain Harrison states in his report that “The United States does not need space capabilities greater than its potential adversaries.  Rather the nation needs reliable, resilient space capabilities that enable other weapon systems to be superior to those of an adversary.”  To improve the reliability and resilience of U.S. space capabilities he made six recommendations.  

The first was to transition the MILSATCOM architecture from a two-tiered (protected and unprotected) to a three-tiered structure.  The highest tier, for strategic communications, would be largely unchanged with robust levels of protection from threats.  The lowest tier also would remain the same, providing unprotected services for non-essential communications on commercial satellites.  What Harrison proposes is a new middle-tier of systems that provide some level of protection to tactical users.  He explains in the report that “only 7 percent of the current architecture’s capacity is protected, meaning many tactical users are using unprotected systems for mission critical communications.”  Thus he wants tactical systems that have passive defenses against jamming, detection and interception.  This tier could include Advanced Extremely High Frequency (AEHF) payloads hosted on other military satellites, for example, he writes.

 Other recommendations included:

  • Inviting Pacific allies such as Japan, Australia, and South Korea to join MILSATCOM’s proposed middle tier to drive cost down and deter adversaries from attacking the partner nations’ satellite networks
  • Avoiding strategic cost traps such as an expensive shoot-back defense system to adversaries’ kinetic ASAT technology
  • Leveraging current programs to build and evolve new capabilities while avoiding the start of new and expensive programs
  • Implementing competition more efficiently to reduce redundancy and costs
  • Consolidating MILSATCOM programs, budgets, and operations under one Service — he recommended the Air Force

During the panel session that followed Harrison’s presentation, Greg Edelund, Director of Communication Systems at Northrop Grumman Aerospace Systems, emphasized that there is a synergy between resiliency and affordability.  He defined resiliency by addressing the differences between the costs of building defensive systems for MILSATCOM, whether passive systems like satellite hardening or active systems like “shoot-back” systems against kinetic ASAT capabilities, compared to the costs for adversaries to disrupt U.S. systems.

Asymmetric threats occur when adversaries can spend orders of magnitude less to disable or defeat a U.S. system than the U.S. system cost to build, Edelund explained.  Furthermore, he asserted that 95 percent of MILSATCOM systems are vulnerable to threats and that ground stations are the most vulnerable.  To address asymmetric threats, he proposed moving the battle to space by creating disaggregated MILSATCOM systems consisting of a large number of small satellites in various orbits that are capable of maneuvering and that can be quickly reconstituted.  Such an architecture would substantially increase the costs for an adversary to disable or destroy the system.

Justin Keller, Advanced Programs Director of Global Communications Systems at Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company, recommended that the United States look at possible threats up until 2030 and then choose the right package to handle the challenges and increase affordability. He disagreed with Harrison’s proposal to consolidate all MILSATCOM programs into the Air Force, stressing the effectiveness of the Navy’s existing MILSATCOM systems and arguing that transferring them into one Service would not be an improvement.

Marc Johansen, Vice President of Satellites & Intelligence Programs at Boeing, supported Harrison’s proposed restructuring of MILSATCOM systems into a three tiered system and mentioned that the Boeing 702 satellite production line is flexible across commercial and government program specifications.  He cited the Wideband Global SATCOM commercial-like follow-on vehicles as an example of efficiency.   He said they are experiencing 25 percent savings by reducing government involvement and oversight, which translated into about $150 million in savings over three satellites for the Air Force. He added that by transitioning them into a purely commercial acquisition approach by removing the remaining oversight and unique military specifications, the government could achieve 50 percent savings and operate in the lowest proposed tier.

Len Schiavone, Director of Technology for Integrated Communications Systems at Raytheon Space and Airborne Systems, elaborated on the difference between tactical and strategic mission communications.  Tactical mission communications must be protected against jamming, interception and detectability while strategic mission communications must be able to survive through nuclear blasts as well as have more stringent information security than tactical missions.   He agreed that satellite constellations be disaggregated and proposed that tactical mission communications be built with large capacities for data transfer at a more economic price. Those satellites would then be supported by lower capacity strategic mission communications which require a more expensive defensive package.

Editor’s Note:  SpacePolicyOnline.com welcomes Raymon Furth as a new correspondent.  Furth is an astronomy student at the University of Colorado-Boulder.  He is currently serving in an internship position in Washington, DC supporting the Assistant Vice President of Research and Federal Relations with the University of Colorado Office of Government Relations.  Read more about him on our “About Us” page.  (Note:  We have clarified Furth’s internship title.)

Space Policy Events for the Week of September 23-27, 2013

Space Policy Events for the Week of September 23-27, 2013

The following events may be of interest during the week.  The House and Senate will be in session part of the week.

During the Week

It’s crunch time in Washington as FY2013 comes to an end next Monday and there is no law in place to fund the government thereafter.  The House was scheduled to be in recess this week, but the House Republican leadership changed its mind and ordered the House to return on Wednesday.  The Senate will be in session beginning Monday, but no votes are scheduled until Tuesday when it will take up the FY2014 Continuing Resolution (CR) that the House passed on Friday.   It would fund the government through mid-December, but deny any funds for implementing the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare).   The Senate is expected to reject that bill and pass a “clean” CR that only funds the government.  What happens after that is anyone’s guess.  The House Republican leadership and many Republican Senators do not want a government shutdown, but there are enough House Republicans who are happy to shut down the government temporarily in order to make political points about their views on Obamacare that the end game is far from clear.  It’s a high stakes political battle.

With many in the space community over in Beijing for the International Astronautical Congress — the annual conference of the International Astronautical Federation (IAF), International Academy of Astronautics (IAA) and International Institute of Space Law (IISL) — there are relatively few space policy events coming up, but those we know of are listed below.

Monday-Friday, September 23-27

Tuesday, September 24

Wednesday, September 25

Cygnus On Track for First Arrival at Space Station Sunday Morning

Cygnus On Track for First Arrival at Space Station Sunday Morning

Orbital Sciences Corporation’s Cygnus cargo spacecraft is on track for arrival at the International Space Station (ISS) tomorrow morning, Sunday, September 22.

The spacecraft has been making a series of orbital maneuvers since launch on Wednesday to catch up with the ISS and get ready for berthing.  (Strictly speaking this is berthing rather than docking since the spacecraft is grappled by a robotic arm operated by ISS astronauts who then install the spacecraft onto the docking port, rather than the spacecraft  itself maneuvering directly into the docking port.  Berthing is used for SpaceX’s Dragon and Japan’s HTV cargo spacecraft as well.)  This afternoon, Cygnus is about 400 kilometers (248 miles) behind and 4 kilometers (2.5 miles) below the ISS.

NASA TV will begin coverage of rendezvous and berthing operations at 4:30 am Eastern Daylight Time (EDT) Sunday morning.  At about 7:25 am EDT, NASA astronaut Karen Nyberg will use Canadarm2 to grapple Cygnus, followed by installation onto the Node 2 docking port about 90 minutes later.

A press conference is scheduled for 1:00 pm EDT.

Cygnus is delivering about 1,300 pounds (589 kilograms) of cargo to the ISS crew.  Today there are three aboard — Nyberg, European Space Agency astronaut Luca Parmitano, and Russian cosmonaut Fyodor Yurchikhin, but they will be joined by another three in a few days (September 25).

This is Orbital’s demonstration mission under NASA’s Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) program.  It was the second launch of the Antares rocket and the first launch of Cygnus.   If all goes according to plan with this mission, Orbital will launch its first Commercial Resupply Services (CRS) flight in December.  Orbital is under contract to NASA for eight CRS missions to the ISS during the next couple of years.

Witnesses, House Committee Members Disagree on State of Weather and Environmental Satellites

Witnesses, House Committee Members Disagree on State of Weather and Environmental Satellites

During Thursday’s joint House Science subcommittee hearing, the agencies in charge of developing and operating U.S national weather and climate satellites insisted that a projected gap in weather coverage is not certain and that the necessary steps to address that eventuality are being taken. Others disagreed. 

The hearing to examine dysfunction in management of weather and climate satellites was held by the Subcommittees on Environment and on Oversight of the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology (HSS&T). It began with Oversight Subcommittee Chairman Paul Broun (R-GA), chastising both the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and NASA for failing to submit their testimonies on time. This followed remarks expressed in his opening statement where he asked witnesses to answer questions “in a concise, straightforward, and accurate manner” and not to “sidestep” them “through the use of bureaucratic doublespeak.”

His statements expressing frustration at being told by NOAA and NASA “that ‘all is well’ when we all know that is not the case,” set the tone for the rest of the discussion, which was followed by visible disagreements between both agency representatives and the witness from the federal agencies’ watchdog, the Government Accountability Office (GAO).  

GAO’s Director of Information Technology Management Issues, David Powner, summarized the findings of two reports GAO released this week on the polar orbiting weather satellite system, JPSS, and the next-generation geostationary weather satellite system, GOES-R. These are the latest in a long line of GAO studies calling attention to ongoing management and schedule challenges of the nation’s weather satellite programs. Just last February, GAO added concern over weather satellite data gaps to its high risk list.

With respect to JPSS, GAO found that “solid progress” had been made, but Powner spoke of the projected data gap as a certainty. Assuming that the current satellite, Suomi NPP, lasts for five years, that JPSS-1 is launched on time in March 2017 and that on-orbit check out takes a year, there will be a 17-month data gap between late 2016 and late 2018, he said.   But that’s the best case scenario, Powner explained.  A number of vulnerabilities identified in the report leads GAO to question NASA and NOAA’s 70 percent confidence assessment that the March 2017 launch date for JPSS-1 will actually be met, suggesting that the data gap could be much longer.

GOES-R, in turn, continues facing milestone delays, scheduling and other challenges, GAO found.  Powner referenced recent statements by NOAA officials that the launch would be delayed from October 2015 to the quarter ending March 2016.  This decision, though seemingly insignificant, extends to nearly two years the time that NOAA will be without an on-orbit backup satellite. An additional launch slip, he said, and a gap in satellite coverage will occur.

NASA and NOAA, however, disagreed with this bleak assessment.

Mary Kicza, NOAA Assistant Administrator of Satellite and Information Services, began her remarks saying she was “proud to report that JPSS and GOES-R continue to meet key milestones.” She noted that “while the title of this hearing would lead one to believe otherwise, management and oversight of these programs is functional.” She listed several successes, including reaching over 99 percent data availability with Suomi NPP.

When asked to put a number on the likelihood of a data gap, both Kicza and Marcus Watkins, director of the Joint Agency Satellite Division at NASA, said they estimated it to be 5 out of 10. “Our gap situation has improved,” said Kizca, who said that JPSS-1 was on schedule and that development of JPSS-2 has been accelerated. She also listed a number of risk mitigating practices, including close management of Suomi NPP. Noting that “infant mortality issues” have not been seen on the satellite, she suggested that NOAA might be able to reduce the on-orbit checkout period of JPSS-1 to less than a year.

“I am not aware of the gap situation improving,” said Powner, however, and urged against downplaying the likelihood of a gap.  Representative Chris Stewart (R-UT), ranking member of the Subcommittee on Environment, said he was “troubled” by the differences in opinion.

Another hot topic of discussion involved the specific mitigation strategies that NOAA would implement in the event of a data gap.  Several members expressed serious concerns over a NOAA-sponsored study that, as reported by Space News, concluded that Chinese weather data could be the “silver bullet” to help fill this gap.

Kicza explained that a “host of options” are being examined and pursued by the agency to address potential gaps and that the use of Chinese data would be a “whole of government decision” that would involve the national security community to address definite security concerns.

Several members, particularly Stewart, pressed NOAA to consider commercial data buys from potential commercial partners that he said “have so far been rebuffed by NOAA.” Ranking Member of the Oversight Subcommittee, Dan Maffei (D-NY) noted that weather forecasting is already a public-private endeavor, but suggested it might be useful for GAO to pursue a study on opportunities for furthering public private collaboration in this area.

Powner agreed that NOAA has come up with an extensive list of options to address potential gaps, “but let’s be clear,” he said, “none of these options can replace JPSS’ polar satellite observations…these options can minimize the gap but do not eliminate the damage to forecasts from the gap.”

The charter for the hearing, opening statements by committee members, prepared statements by witnesses and an archived webcast can be found on the committee’s Republican and Democratic websites.

Sullivan Nomination Hearing: It's Fish, Not Satellites

Sullivan Nomination Hearing: It's Fish, Not Satellites

In the space community, NOAA’s most important mission is operating weather satellites, but for the Senators deliberating on Kathy Sullivan’s nomination to head NOAA, it’s all about fish.

Sullivan, a former NASA astronaut who was the first American woman to make a spacewalk, is an oceanographer by training and in her second tour of duty at NOAA.   She was NOAA’s chief scientist in the Clinton Administration and returned to NOAA in 2011 as NOAA’s Deputy Administrator.   She became NOAA Acting Administrator in February with the departure of Jane Lubchenco.

President Obama nominated her to become NOAA Administrator and today a Senate Commerce subcommittee held a hearing on her nomination along with those of two individuals to serve at the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP).  Space issues were barely mentioned.

It was only very late in the hearing that subcommittee chairman Bill Nelson (D-FL) asked a couple of questions about satellites.  Overall, Senators focused on NOAA’s role in fisheries.  As Senator Maria Cantwell (D-WA) said, the focus of the hearing reflects “the significance of a coastal economy to our nation.”  Later Senator Mark Begich (D-AK) commented that he was aware of NOAA’s responsibility for satellites, but “fisheries is a pretty important issue for us” in Alaska.

Nelson’s satellite-related questions, and their answers, were very general and inquired about improving hurricane forecasting and tracking, using commercial assets, and the risk from solar flares.

Antares Still on Track for Launch Wednesday Morning

Antares Still on Track for Launch Wednesday Morning

As of 8:00 am Eastern Daylight Time today (Tuesday), the launch of Orbital Sciences Corporation’s Antares rocket and Cygnus spacecraft is on track for 10:50 am EDT tomorrow (Wednesday).   We plan to be at the launch; follow us on Twitter @SpcPlcyOnline.

NASA tweeted this photo of the rocket and spacecraft on the pad at the Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport (MARS) at NASA’s Wallops Flight Facility at sunrise this morning .

 Photo Credit:  NASA/Bill Ingalls

The Cygnus spacecraft is taking supplies to the International Space Station (ISS) crew.  This is Orbital’s demonstration flight for NASA’s Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) program.   The launch window is open from 10:50-11:05 am EDT tomorrow, Wednesday, September 18, 2013.  NASA TV will cover the launch. 

We would post a link to NASA’s commercial crew and cargo program office for you to get additional up to date information, but as of this moment it is out of date, showing the launch as scheduled for today; the launch slipped a day over the weekend.  However, this NASA site seems to be keeping up with developments.  Launch dates can always slip for a variety of reasons.

We will update our website as Internet access allows.   Follow us on Twitter @SpcPlcyOnline.

 

Orbital Completes Test, Antares Launch Still Set for September 18

Orbital Completes Test, Antares Launch Still Set for September 18

Orbital Sciences Corporation successfully completed a new test of its Antares rocket last night and confirms that the launch is now scheduled for Wednesday, September 18.

The launch window is open from 10:50 – 11:05 am Eastern Daylight Time.  

This is Orbital’s demonstration flight for NASA under the Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) program.  It is the second flight of Antares and the first of Orbital’s Cygnus spacecraft that is taking supplies to the International Space Station (ISS).   If the launch takes place as scheduled on September 18, Cygnus will berth with the ISS on Sunday, September 22.

The launch slipped from September 17 to September 18 because of an inoperative cable that had to be replaced.  In a posting on its website today, the company said the Combined Systems Test conducted last night was successful and they are pressing forward with plans to launch on Wednesday.  The launch is from the Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport (MARS) at NASA’s Wallops Flight Facility on the coast of Virginia.

Space Policy Events for the Week of September 16-20, 2013

Space Policy Events for the Week of September 16-20, 2013

The following events may be of interest in the week ahead.  The House and Senate both are in session this week.

During the Week

With two-and-a-half weeks to go until the beginning of the new fiscal year, there is still no sign of an agreement on keeping the government operating after September 30.   The dispute at this point is primarily among Republicans in the House.  Some, including Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) and Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA) appear determined to avoid a shutdown for fear it will hurt Republican chances to retain control of the House in next year’s elections.   Others are less concerned about next year’s elections than about other high profile issues like Obamacare and want to tie any agreement on federal funding overall to defunding that program.   The sides seems pretty far apart at the moment, but anything can happen between now and Friday when Cantor has scheduled a vote on a Continuing Resolution (CR) subject to a rule being granted.  The House is scheduled to be in recess next week, but Cantor has hinted that if agreement on a CR is not reached by the end of this week, he may keep the House in session.

Apart from that high stakes political drama, in the space business many eyes will be focused on Orbital Sciences Corporation’s launch of its Antares rocket sending the Cygnus spacecraft to the International Space Station (ISS).   The launch is currently scheduled for 10:50 am Eastern Daylight Time (EDT) on Wednesday, September 18, but launch dates can always slip.  Stay tuned to SpacePolicyOnline.com for updates.

Lots of other interesting meetings and congressional hearings on tap as well, as detailed below.

Monday, September 16

Tuesday, September 17

Tuesday-Wednesday, September 17-18

Wednesday, September 18

Thursday, September 19

Friday, September 20

SpaceX Falcon 9 v1.1 Launch Delayed Till End of September

SpaceX Falcon 9 v1.1 Launch Delayed Till End of September

Elon Musk tweeted this morning that SpaceX’s launch of the Falcon 9 v1.1 from Vandenberg Air Force Base will be delayed until the end of September.

Musk, founder and Chief Technology Officer of SpaceX, tweeted that the company will do another static fire test and “AF needs to test ICBMs, so probable launch Sept 29/30.”

The launch had been tentatively set for today, September 15, but anomalies were detected during a static fire test on Thursday, necessitating the second test.

This will be the first flight of this version of the Falcon 9 and SpaceX’s first launch from Vandenberg.