The House and Senate Armed Services Committees (HASC and SASC) announced agreement today on a compromise version of the FY2016 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA).  HASC Chairman Mac Thornberry (R-CA) said that he expects the bill to reach the floor of the House for debate on Thursday.  One thorny space-related issue, on use of Russian RD-180 rocket engines, was resolved largely in the Senate’s favor.

Broadly speaking, the House, Senate, Air Force, DOD, and United Launch Alliance (ULA) agree that the United States should not rely on Russian rocket engines to launch U.S. national security satellites.   ULA was created in 2006 as a joint venture between Lockheed Martin and Boeing and has been essentially a monopoly launch services provider to the national security community since then.  ULA’s Atlas V rocket uses Russian RD-180 engines.  From an engineering standpoint, the RD-180 apparently is an excellent engine and users are reluctant to give it up.

However, the advent of “new entrants” like SpaceX into the launch vehicle market, and the deterioration in the U.S.-Russian relationship following Russia’s actions in Ukraine, marked a paradigm shift in the U.S. launch vehicle industry last year.   SASC chairman Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) has been particularly strident in his views that the United States should not be paying money to Russia for rocket engines that goes into the pockets of “cronies” of Russian President Vladimir Putin.  He also strongly supports the entry of SpaceX as a competitor to ULA.   

In last year’s FY2015 NDAA, Congress set 2019 as a deadline for when RD-180s should be replaced by a new domestic rocket engine for national security launches (the provision does not affect the use of Russian engines for commercial or other government launches).  Flexibility was provided by giving the Secretary of Defense waiver authority to certify that additional Russian engines were needed for national security purposes, but the Air Force and DOD have been fighting to get the 2019 deadline extended to 2022 to 2023.  They argue that while a new U.S. engine could be ready
by 2019, it would take several years to integrate it into a new rocket
and certify the rocket for launching expensive, vital national security
satellites.  HASC has been more sympathetic to that view than SASC.

The Senate version of the FY2016 NDAA kept the 2019 deadline and said only nine more RD-180 engines could be obtained.  The House version provided substantial flexibility by expanding the Secretary of Defense’s waiver authority.

The compromise version announced today mostly adopts the Senate language.  At a press conference today, McCain vehemently reiterated his opposition to paying Russia for RD-180 engines and his support for SpaceX.  He said that SpaceX asserts that it can have a domestic engine ready to replace the RD-180s by 2017.  The compromise still allows the use of nine more RD-180s, he said, as his committee recommended.  He added, though, that the language does allow more to be purchased if needed “but to commit to 6-7 [more] years is not something I’m prepared to do.”  He criticized the ULA-Air Force relationship on this issue as a “classic example of the military-industrial complex.”

In a separate press conference, the four Republican and Democratic leaders of HASC and SASC also addressed the issue.  Thornberry said “we want to wean ourselves off of Russian engines as soon as possible and have assured access to space as we do it” and that is what the compromise language does.  HASC ranking member Adam Smith (D-WA) added that “I think we’re going to get to a good place sooner than most people realize,” but stressed that  “we don’t want just one alternative” to the RD-180s. There are companies out there, a number of them happen to be in the State of Washington, as a matter of fact, Blue Origin, Aerojet, bunch of other folks, and they’ll get there sooner than we expect. Still, “we can’t … count on that and say that we can’t buy the only thing that’s actually available.”  The language in the bill ensures DOD “has good choices,” he remarked, but also pushes “domestic industry to quickly develop an alternative domestically.”

Blue Origin and Aerojet Rocketdyne are competitors in developing a new engine for ULA’s planned Vulcan rocket that will eventually replace both the Altas V and Delta IV, ULA’s other rocket.   ULA and Blue Origin announced a partnership last fall where ULA said it would use Blue Origin’s BE-4 engine for Vulcan.  The BE-4 is an innovative design that uses methane (liquefied natural gas) and liquid oxygen (LOX) as propellant.    ULA said this spring, however, that it is also considering a traditional LOX/kerosene engine being developed by Aerojet Rocketdyne, the AR1, and will make a choice between them next year. Blue Origin is headquartered in Kent, Washington and Sacramento-based Aerojet Rocketdyne has a major facility in Redmond, Washington.  Aerojet Rocketdyne is trying to buy ULA, adding further complexity to the outlook for the U.S. launch services market.

ULA and Blue Origin said last fall that the BE-4 engine is fully funded and no government funds are required, although ULA President Tory Bruno said this spring that he certainly would not turn down government help.   Aerojet Rocketdyne has indicated that it does need government funds.   The compromise version of the NDAA authorizes $184.4 million.

The NDAA is an authorization, not appropriations, bill, so its funding levels only are recommendations.   Democrats still want a grand deal on replacing sequestration, and not only for defense, but for domestic priorities as well.  They object to a maneuver Republicans are using for FY2016 defense spending by putting money into an off-budget account, Overseas Contingency Operations (OCO), to get around the existing budget caps.  McCain and Thornberry argue that since the NDAA is only an authorization bill, that debate should not derail this bill.   SASC ranking Democrat Jack Reed (D-RI), said at the press conference today, however, that he would oppose the bill on those grounds.

The Senate advanced a Continuing Resolution (CR) to fund the government through December 11, 2015 today, all but ending fears of a government shutdown on October 1.  House Speaker John Boehner’s surprise announcement on Friday that he is stepping down sharply diminished the chances of an October 1 shutdown, but may make a December shutdown instead more likely.

By a vote of 77-19, the Senate agreed to let the CR move forward.  A final vote is expected tomorrow.   It is a “clean” bill without a policy rider sought by some ultra-conservative Republicans to defund Planned Parenthood. 

Assuming the Senate approves the bill tomorrow, it will go to the House where the betting today is that it will pass.  Now that he has announced his departure on October 30,  Boehner is more free to focus on his goal of keeping the government operating rather than negotiating with the right-wing of his party that vowed not to vote for any bill that did not defund Planned Parenthood. 

Boehner and his Senate counterpart, Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY), have been saying all year that they will not permit another government shutdown like the one in 2013.  In that case, Tea Party Republicans led by Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) refused to agree to a bill that did not repeal the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare).  After 16 days, Boehner decided to reopen the government by going against that wing of his party and using Democratic votes to pass the bill.   It is widely expected that he will do the same when this Senate bill reaches the House tomorrow or Wednesday.  

Congress must pass an appropriations bill by midnight Wednesday, the last day of FY2015, in order for the government to open for business on Thursday, the first day of FY2016.

The bill has not passed yet, however, and it is unwise to heave a sigh of relief until it does.  Even then, it may be short-lived.   Boehner is leaving on October 30 and a new Speaker will have to deal with the same forces in the Republican party to get appropriations passed for the rest of the fiscal year.  House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) formally announced his candidacy for Speaker today and many consider him the odds-on favorite, but Tea Party challengers are expected.

Whoever wins, the issues are likely to remain the same, so this is just kicking the can down the road.  For those worried about whether the government will be open on Thursday, however, it is good news.

Here is our list of space policy events for the week of September 28-October 2, 2015 and any insight we can offer about them.  The House and Senate are in session.

During the Week

This is it!   The week when FY2016 begins — ready or not.   The House and Senate have until Wednesday, September 30, at midnight to pass, and for the President to sign, a Continuing Resolution (CR) to keep the government open.   House Speaker John Boehner’s surprising announcement on Friday that he will resign as Speaker and from his House seat on October 30 is widely expected to make it easier to get a CR in place.  He can worry less about placating the right wing conservatives in his party who are refusing to vote for a CR unless it defunds Planned Parenthood and use Democratic votes to get the CR through the House.   While that is good news in the short term, the CR is only expected to last through December, so the proverbial can is just being kicked down the road into the lap of whoever becomes the next Speaker.  But it’s best to take one crisis at a time and perhaps the country will be able to get through this one less painfully than expected.  But it’s never over till the fat lady sings.  Predicting what Congress will do is a risky undertaking, as Boehner’s announcement proves.

The Senate is expected to pass a clean CR (without any policy riders like defunding Planned Parenthood) early in the week.  It is using the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) Office of Inspection Accountability Act (H.R. 719) as the legislative vehicle for the CR.  A cloture motion is expected on Monday at 5:30 pm ET.  (Congress often uses an unrelated bill that is already through most of the legislative process as a vehicle for a CR or omnibus appropriations since it speeds things up.)

Amidst all the appropriations drama, the House Science, Space, and Technology Committee will hold a hearing on astrobiology on Tuesday.  It originally was scheduled for June 23, but postponed when the House recessed to allow members to attend the funerals in Charleston, S.C. after the mass shooting there.

As if Washington politics isn’t exciting enough, NASA apparently has something intriguing of its own to announce on Monday.  It’s not saying exactly what, but at 11:30 am ET there will be a press conference where a “Mars mystery” will be solved.   Lots of speculation on Twitter and elsewhere as to what it will be, but we won’t spoil the surprise.

Speaking of Mars, another BIG EVENT this week will be the theater release of The Martian on October 2.  In the unlikely event you haven’t heard about the movie, based on the book by Andy Weir, it’s about an astronaut who gets stranded on Mars.   NASA has been going all out to advertise the film and a panel discussion at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) on Thursday — So You Want to be a Martian — includes two of the actors in the film, Mackenzie Davis and Chiwetel Ejiofor.   KSC Director Bob Cabana, who is also on the panel, clearly is hoping that Congress does, in fact, pass that CR so KSC will be open for business that day (October 1).

Those and other events we know about as of Saturday afternoon are listed below.   Check back throughout the week for updates on the calendar on the right side of our main page.

Sunday-Friday, September 27-October 2

• European Planetary Science Congress, La Cité des Congrès, Nantes, France

Monday-Tuesday, September 28-29

• National Academies Committee on NASA Technology Roadmaps, Keck Center, 500 5th St., NW, Washington, DC
• NASA Press Conference “Mars Mystery Solved,” NASA HQ, Washington, DC, 11:30 am ET (watch on NASA TV)
• Explore Mars Space Cafe, The Science Club, 1136 19th Street, NW, Washington, DC, 7:00 pm ET

Tuesday, September 29

• House SS&T Hearing on Astrobiology, 2318 Rayburn, 10:00 am ET

Tuesday-Wednesday, September 29-30

• NASA Advisory Council Heliophysics Subcommittee, NASA HQ, Washington, DC

Thursday, October 1

• FY2016 Begins for the U.S. Government
• Panel Discussion “So You Want to Be a Martian,” Kennedy Space Center, FL, 11:30 am ET (watch on NASA TV)

Friday, October 2

• Movie “The Martian” theatrical release, check local listings

House Speaker John Boehner told his Republican conference this morning that he will resign his Speakership and his seat in Congress on October 30, 2015.

The House has been girding for battle on the FY2016 appropriations bills pitting those whose primary interest is keeping the government operating against those determined to end government funding of Planned Parenthood.   The most conservative wing of the Republican party in the House has sent strong indications that they plan to try to remove Boehner as Speaker this fall because they do not think he fights strongly enough for their causes, such as defunding Planned Parenthood. 

Boehner, a Catholic and former altar boy, was visibly moved by the visit of Pope Francis yesterday.  He and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), also a Catholic, were the ones who invited the Pope to address a joint session of Congress, the first Pope to accept such an invitation.   The Pope’s visit fulfilled one of Boehner’s lifelong dreams according to multiple accounts.

One of the Pope’s messages to Congress was unity: “Each son or daughter of a given country has a mission, a personal and social responsibility.  Your own responsibility as members of Congress is to enable this country, by your legislative activity, to grow as a nation. …. Legislative activity is always based on the care for the people.  To this you have been invited, called and convened by those who elected you.”

The Hill newspaper quotes a Boehner aide as saying that Boehner feels his primary role in Congress is to protect the institution and “as we saw yesterday with the Holy Father, it is the one thing that unites and inspires us all.”  The aide added that Boehner felt a prolonged battle over his leadership “would do irreparable damage to the institution” and he therefore will resign “for the good of the Republican conference and the institution.”   The aide also said that Boehner planned to retire last year, but stayed after his second-in-command, then-House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA), lost his seat in a primary race.

Cantor was succeeded as Majority Leader by Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA).  Speculation as to who will replace Boehner as Speaker in these initial hours focuses on McCarthy.  He issued a statement saying “It takes profound humility to step down from a position of power, and John’s depth of character is unmatched. … Now is the time for our conference to focus on healing and unifying to face the challenges ahead and always do what is best for the American people.”

From a space policy standpoint, McCarthy represents the district that includes Edwards Air Force Base and the Mojave Air & Space Port.   He has been actively involved in commercial space issues and is the lead sponsor of H.R. 2262, the Spurring Private Aerospace Competitiveness and Entrepreneurship (SPACE) Act, which passed the House on May 21.   It is far too early, of course, to assume that he will become Speaker or that space policy will have greater visibility in the House if he is.

Boehner’s announcement may be good news for those who want to avoid a government shutdown next week because he may be more willing to pass a clean Continuing Resolution (CR) using Democratic votes to get the needed 218 votes even though many of his own members will vote against it.  He and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) have vowed since the beginning of the year that they will not allow another shutdown like the one in 2013, and both have been fighting the most conservative wings of their parties that do not view a government shutdown as a negative.   McConnell is going through a process in the Senate right now that many expect will ultimately lead to the Senate passing a clean CR (without any policy riders such as defunding Planned Parenthood).

It is always risky to try and predict what Congress will do, however, as Boehner’s surprise announcement this morning proves.

Here is our list of space policy related events for the week of September 21-25, 2015 and any insight we can offer about them.  The Senate is in session this week except for Wednesday (Yom Kippur), while the House is in session only on Thursday and Friday.

During the Week

The visit to Washington, DC by Pope Francis Tuesday-Thursday takes the spotlight this week, not because he is expected to say anything about space policy, but because just about everyone’s attention is focused on that instead of other things (like funding the federal government after September 30 — the clock’s ticking! — not to mention finalizing the FY2016 NDAA or the Commercial Space Launch Competitiveness Act).  If you haven’t heard, the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) has advised federal agencies to let their employees work from home to avoid the traffic meltdown that’s expected as roads are closed throughout town and Metro is overwhelmed.

Intrepid souls who are willing to venture out anyway have interesting events they can attend, however.  On Tuesday, the Secure World Foundation and the Alliance for Space Development will hold a panel discussion on “Commercial Space Stations in LEO: Preparing for the Future.”  It’s from 12:30-2:00 pm ET and should be over before the Pope’s plane lands at 4:00 pm ET, so you might be able to get in and out without too much trouble (but check local traffic information sources to find out when the roads you need to use will close and the status of Metro).  NAC’s Ad Hoc STEM Task Force meets that day at NASA Headquarters (9:30-3:30) and there’s an interesting talk at the National Museum of American History at 4:00 on the history of agricultural use of Landsat data during the Cold War era (tea and cookies at 3:30).  Travel might be a bit tricky by the time those are over – bring your patience!  On Thursday, the National Academies Space Technology Industry, Government, University Roundtable (STIGUR) meets all day at the Keck Center on 5th Street, NW.  The Pope will be addressing a joint session of Congress Thursday morning and leaves for New York later in the day, so hopefully the traffic tie-ups will be closer to the Hill and not the Keck Center, but give yourself plenty of time if you plan to attend.

On Monday, before he arrives, the Washington Space Business Roundtable is holding a luncheon panel on the Export-Import Bank situation, which could be quite interesting.  Congress has not reauthorized the bank so it no longer can help finance U.S. aerospace exports.  It’s a prickly political issue that could have significant consequences for companies like Boeing, one of the largest users of the bank.  Jeff Trauberman will be on the panel to talk about Boeing’s point of view, along with Ted McFarland from Orbital ATK and other industry representatives.

If you’re lucky enough to be in South Korea rather than Washington, DC, the annual Asia Pacific Satellite Conference and Exhibition is taking place in Seoul on Tuesday-Thursday.

Those and other events we know about as of Sunday morning are listed below.

Monday, September 21

• WSBR Luncheon with Export-Import Bank panel, University Club, Washington, DC, 11:30 am – 1:30 pm ET

Tuesday, September 22

• NASA Advisory Council Ad Hoc Task Force on STEM Education, NASA HQ, Washington, DC, 9:00 am – 3:30 pm ET
• Commercial Space Stations in LEO (SWF/ASD), 1779 Massachusetts Ave, NW, Washington, DC, 12:30-2:00 pm ET
• Farming from Space: Agricultural Surveillance During the Cold War, 1965-1978 lecture by Brian Jirout, National Museum of American History, Washington, DC, 4:00 pm ET

Tuesday-Thursday, September 22-24

• Asia Pacific Satellite Conference and Exhibition, Seoul, South Korea

Thursday, September 24

• National Academies Space Technology Industry, Government, University Roundtable (STIGUR), Keck Center, 500 5th Street, NW, Washington, DC, 8:15 am – 5:00 pm ET
• NASA News Conference with Upcoming ISS Crew, Johnson Space Center, Houston, TX, 2:00 pm ET (watch on NASA TV)