Rare SpaceX Failure Leaves Launch Schedules in Flux

SpaceX suffered a rare failure of its Falcon 9 rocket last night. The company’s record launch rate — last night’s was the 70th this year — and reliability has made it the go-to rocket for many customers, government and commercial alike. When it will return to flight depends on what measures are needed to correct the failure and FAA approval. The agency said it will investigate even though it was a second-stage failure in orbit that did not threaten anyone on Earth.

SpaceX is one of its own major customers for Falcon 9 as it places thousands and thousands of satellites into orbit for its broadband Internet service, Starlink.

The launch carrying 20 Starlink satellites from Vandenberg Space Force Base, CA began uneventfully at 10:35 pm EDT (7:35 pm local time). The first stage fired as planned and returned to land on one of SpaceX’s autonomous drone ships off the coast while the second stage ignited to boost the satellites into orbit. That burn apparently went fine, but an oxygen leak developed when they fired the Merlin engine for a second time and they did not achieve the orbit they intended.

 

Watch Falcon 9 launch 20 @Starlink satellites to orbit from California, including 13 with Direct to Cell capabilities https://t.co/aXuY7ZXXrO

— SpaceX (@SpaceX) July 12, 2024

The satellites separated from the second stage, but were left in an orbit with a perigee — the point closest to Earth — of just 135 kilometers (84 miles). Atmospheric drag at that altitude is considerable. Each satellite has its own engine, but they don’t produce enough thrust to compensate. SpaceX expects all 20 satellites to burn up as they reenter.

This is only the second in-flight failure of Falcon 9. The first was in June 2015 on a flight that was to deliver supplies to the International Space Station. Another Falcon 9 exploded on the ground during a pre-launch test in 2016, but otherwise the rocket has an enviable record of 364 successful flights since June 2010.

SpaceX said it will conduct a “full investigation in coordination with the FAA, determine root cause, and make corrective actions to ensure the success of future missions.”

In a statement, the FAA confirmed that it will investigate the failure alongside SpaceX. The FAA’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation regulates the commercial space launch business focused on public safety. While acknowledging this failure posed no risk to the public, it will require an investigation anyway to further enhance public safety.

The FAA is aware an anomaly occurred during the SpaceX Starlink Group 9-3 mission that launched from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California on July 11. The incident involved the failure of the upper stage rocket while it was in space. No public injuries or public property damage have been reported. The FAA is requiring an investigation….

A return to flight is based on the FAA determining that any system, process, or procedure related to the mishap does not affect public safety. In addition, SpaceX may need to request and receive approval from the FAA to modify its license that incorporates any corrective actions and meet all other licensing requirements.

How long that will take is unknown, but SpaceX’s busy launch schedule clearly will be disrupted.  In 2023, they had 91 successful Falcon 9 launches plus five for Falcon Heavy. This year’s goal is 150 according to SpaceX founder and chief engineer Elon Musk.

Among the near-term upcoming Falcon 9 launches are three that will carry people: the Polaris Dawn private astronaut mission led by billionaire Jared Isaacman on July 31, Crew-9 for NASA to the ISS in mid-August, and another private astronaut mission, Axiom-4, in October that also will visit the ISS. The Crew-9 launch is a crew rotation mission to send a fresh crew of four to replace Crew-8, who have been there since March.

Isaacman posted on X that he has full confidence in SpaceX and “we will fly whenever SpaceX is ready and with complete confidence in the rocket, spaceship and operations.”

SpaceX has an incredible track record with Falcon9. I can say from personal experience they are very transparent when issues arise. I have no doubt they will arrive at a cause quickly and ensure the most cost-effective and reliable launch vehicle keeps delivering payload to…

— Jared Isaacman (@rookisaacman) July 12, 2024

Musk replied that one advantage of Falcon 9’s high flight rate “is that we can identify and resolve problems that may only occur once every 1000 flights. This is impossible with a low flight rate.”

Thanks Jared. We will investigate the issue and look for any other potential near-misses.

We are tracking to do more Falcon flights this year than Shuttle did in 30 years, the vast majority of which are uncrewed.

A major advantage of this super high flight rate is that we can…

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 12, 2024

In an emailed statement late on Friday, NASA said SpaceX is including NASA in the investigation and the agency will provide updates on any impacts to NASA missions when more information is available.

Other notable near-term time-sensitive upcoming flights, both in October, are NASA’s Europa Clipper mission to Jupiter’s moon Europa on a Falcon Heavy and ESA’s Hera mission on a Falcon 9 to revisit the Didymos-Dimorphos double asteroid that was the target of NASA’s DART mission in 2022.

 

This article has been updated.