Dr. Charles Kennel, chair of the National Research Council’s Space Studies Board (SSB), and a member of the Augustine panel that is considering options for the future of the human space flight program, has concluded that a human lunar landing is not likely to happen until “the 2020s or beyond.” Writing in the SSB’s latest newsletter, he says:

“Five years in, it now appears that we cannot go to the Moon because we can not pay. The combination of budget pressures, technical difficulties, and policy considerations have made it unlikely that the Vision’s schedule can be met, even with strong assumptions made about the shuttle and the space station. Moreover, shuttle launches may extend into 2011 for safety reasons, and it is not at all clear that people will be comfortable with an early retirement of the station. All this pushes any reasonable prospect of a human lunar landing into the 2020s or beyond. Perhaps the Chinese will get there first.”

Speaking on behalf of the “Beyond Low Earth Orbit” subgroup, Augustine panel member Chris Chyba asserted today that the subgroup’s recommendations to the full panel include the premise that the only rationale for human space flight “that is sufficient to justify the necessary commitment beyond low Earth is to chart the path for the expansion of human civilization into the solar system.” The Augustine panel is meeting today in Cocoa Beach, FL (view it on NASA’s media channel at http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/nasatv/index.html.

The subgroup developed 11 figures of merit against which to judge various options, but Dr. Chyba said that as important as science, inspiring the next generation of scientists and engineers, engaging with international partners, and commercial development of space may be, the fundamental reason for human space flight is sustained human presence beyond low Earth orbit. “This sounds terribly ambitious and dramatic, but if that is not the point of human space flight — which now is exactly about finally once again going beyond low Earth orbit — what the hell are we doing,” he exclaimed.

Space Shuttle Endeavour has been cleared for landing tomorrow, Friday, July 31. The two opportunities for landing at Kennedy Space Center, FL are at 10:48 am EDT and 12:22 pm EDT. Alternate sites are not being considered for Friday. Weather conditions are favorable, although there is a slight chance of rain.

The Aerospace Corporation told the Augustine panel that the initial operational capability (IOC) for the Constellation program could slip by as many as 4 years and that “Aerospace believes that NASA is not properly funded to accomplish its current program of record [the Constellation program].” The Augustine panel is holding a public meeting in Huntsville, AL today (view the video on the media channel at the NASA TV website) as it continues its deliberations over options for the human space flight program. The panel asked the Aerospace Corporation to perform a number of studies, including an independent assessment of the Constellation program.

Gary Pulliam of the Aerospace Corporation briefed the panel on its findings to date, stressing that they had only three weeks to perform the work. As part of its assessment of Constellation, Aerospace concluded that funding cuts in FY2009 and in the FY2010 budget request may cause a slip of 1 _ years. It believes technical challenges may result in another 2 years of slippage, and funding cuts that might occur if a decision is made to continue the International Space Station beyond 2016 could cause another half-year slip. Cumulatively that adds up to 3 _-4 years, he said, adding that “not all these things have to happen” because there are mitigation strategies, but that is Aerospace’s conclusion to date.

He added that it is Aerospace’s analysis that the current funding projected for the Constellation program is insufficient to achieve the program’s goal of returning astronauts to the Moon by 2020. He also warned about assuming that any of the alternative architectures would be better: “We don’t want to trade one insufficiently funded program for another.”

In answer to a question from Augustine panel member Charlie Kennel today, Steve Lindsey, chief of NASA’s astronaut office, replied that “We’re not going anywhere” beyond low Earth orbit unless solutions are found to protecting humans from exposure to cosmic radiation.

The Augustine panel is holding a public meeting today in League City, TX (webcast available on NASA TV’s media channel — www.nasa.gov/ntv and choose “media channel”). Mr. Lindsey noted that already there are astronauts he cannot assign to ISS missions because they would exceed radiation exposure limits. Dr. Kennel pointed out that exposure to cosmic radiation on missions beyond low Earth orbit would be higher and poses a significant long term risk. Mr. Lindsey agreed saying “This is a serious problem and we have to go solve it or we’re not going anywhere.”

After hearing from the heads of NASA’s Johnson Space Center, the astronaut office, and the Constellation program, the Augustine panel was briefed by one of its own subgroups during its public meeting today in League City, TX. The subgroup, led by former astronaut Sally Ride, was assigned to develop options for the future of the space shuttle, the future of the International Space Station (ISS), and the multi-year gap between the termination of the shuttle and the availability of its replacement. Subgroup members thoroughly briefed the panel on their findings, then asked for comments. Spirited exchanges ensued. Norm Augustine, chair of the full panel, commented that while he had thought the way forward was pretty clear after hearing the subgroup’s report, it was apparent from the ensuing debate that there was much more work to do. The other subgroups will report during the next two days of public meetings.

The National Research Council has named the members of the Giant Planets panel for the Planetary Science Decadal Survey. This completes the naming of members of the five panels. The other four panels are Inner Planets, Mars, Primitive Bodies, and Satellites. Lists of the members of those panels are available on the Planetary Science Decadal Survey website. The just-named members of the Giant Planets panel are:

Heidi Hammel, Planetary Science Institute, Chair

Amy Simon-Miller, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Vice Chair

Reta Beebe, New Mexico State University

John Casani, Jet Propulsion Laboratory

John Clark, Boston University

Brigette Hesman, National Radio Astronomy Observatory

William Hubbard, University of Arizona

Mark Marley, NASA Ames Research Center

Phil Nicholson, Cornell University

Wayne Richie, NASA Langley Research Center, retired

Kunio Sayanagi, California Institute of Technology

For more information on the Planetary Science Decadal Survey, including the members of the Steering Committee, meeting dates, instructions on submitting white papers, and letters to the community from Steering Committee chair Steve Squyres, visit the survey’s main website.

These are the Powerpoint presentations to the National Research Council’s Space Studies Board (SSB) and Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board (ASEB) meetings in May 2009. The meetings of the two Boards were organized to overlap so there could be one joint meeting day when they could receive briefings on and discuss topics of mutual interest. ASEB met May 12-13, and SSB met May 13-15, with the 13th as the joint day. Only those presentations related to space activities are provided below. ASEB also heard from Jaiwon Shin, Associate Administrator of NASA’s Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate, and Vicki Cox, Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Senior Vice President for NextGen and Operations Planning Services. Those presentations may be available by contacting ASEB at aseb@nas.edu.

May 12 (ASEB)

George Nield, Associate Administrator for Commercial Space Transportation, FAA, “Commercial Space Transportation Update”

May 13 (ASEB and SSB)

Christopher Scolese, Acting NASA Administrator, “NASA FY2010 Budget Request Overview”
Gale Allen, Director, Strategic Integration and Management, NASA Exploration Systems Mission Directorate, “Exploration Systems Mission Directorate: FY2010 Budget”
Lynn Cline, Deputy Associate Administrator, NASA Space Operations Mission Directorate, “FY2010 Budget Highlights”

May 14 (SSB)

Chuck Gay, Deputy Associate Administrator, NASA Science Mission Directorate, “FY2010 Budget Overview”
Mary Kicza, NOAA Assistant Administrator for Satellites and Information Services
Richard Behnke, NSF, “Overview of the Upper Atmosphere Research Section”

May 15 (SSB)

John Rush, NASA’s Space Communications and Navigation Office, “NASA Plan for Development of Optical Communication for Space Applications”