The first and last men on the Moon and a former NASA Administrator will testify to a House committee next week about the human spaceflight program.

Neil Armstrong, Gene Cernan, and Mike Griffin are the witnesses for a September 22 hearing before the House Science, Space and Technology Committee. The topic is “NASA Human Spaceflight Past, Present and Future: Where Do We Go From Here?”

All three are strong critics of the Obama Administration’s plan as evidenced by previous congressional testimony, letters and op-ed pieces.

The hearing is at 10:00 in 2318 Rayburn House Office Building.

From Edward Ellegood’s Florida SPACErePORT today:

“FOX News is providing an online venue for the public to offer questions for the Republican primary candidates during their Sep. 22 debate in Florida. This is an opportunity to highlight the importance of space policy issues and to get on-the-record space policy statements from the candidates. By submitting a large number of smart space questions to the debate moderators, we will have a better shot at having one asked during the event.

“Please give your question serious consideration as you don’t want to allow the candidates to dodge the issue. Remember, these are professional politicians and thus evasive by definition. Click here.”

The House Science, Space and Technology Committee not only will look into NASA’s human spaceflight program next week, but will also get an update on the polar orbiting weather satellite program at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

The NOAA hearing will be on Friday, September 23, at 10:00 am. The witnesses have not been announced yet, but the topic is “From NPOESS to JPSS: An Update on the Nation’s Restructured Polar Weather Satellite Program.”

NOAA has been struggling to obtain the requisite funding for the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) since it was announced in February 2010. At that time, the Obama Administration abandoned efforts to build a single weather satellite system serving both the civil and military communities — the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) — because of poor program management that resulted in cost increases and schedule delays. Historically, the Department of Defense (DOD) and NOAA had separate systems and now they will again. The program restructuring makes NOAA responsible for a new civil system that will cost the agency much more than its contribution to NPOESS. The requested significant increase in NOAA’s budget came at just the wrong time as Washington policymakers decided that the top priority is cutting the deficit.

NOAA witnesses have testified to Congress several times already warning that if the agency is not given sufficient funds, there could be a data gap of as long as 18 months when there is no U.S. civil polar orbiting weather satellites, which will reduce the accuracy of forecasts. The House Appropriations Committee cut the FY2012 request for JPSS by $168 million. The Senate Appropriations subcommittee that funds NOAA will markup its version of the bill this Wednesday.

UPDATE: The STScI webinar has been postponed from September 19 to September 21 and more speakers have been added.

As controversy grows in the science community over whether the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) is worth the price, a group of its supporters will hold a webinar next Monday to give an update on the program and answer questions.

The webinar is sponsored by the Space Telescope Science Institute (STScI), which manages operations of the Hubble Space Telescope and will manage operations of JWST. The telescope’s cost estimate has grown significantly in the past year and is now expected to be $8.7 billion. Before an independent review in 2010, the cost estimate was approximately $5 billion. The independent review, headed by John Casani, concluded it would cost about $6.5 billion and launch would be delayed from 2014 to 2015, but meeting that cost and launch date required the immediate infusion of additional funds that NASA did not have. A more detailed analysis is ongoing within NASA. Its results have not been officially released, but are the source of the $8.7 billion estimate. The Casani review faulted budgeting and management problems, not technical challenges, as the reasons for the overrun.

A NASA spokesman told SpacePolicyOnline.com on July 28 via email that $3.5 billion will have been spent on JWST by the end of FY2011. In response to a statement by University of Chicago cosmologist Michael Turner on NPR’s Science Friday that JWST was 75 percent complete, the NASA spokesman clarified that 75 percent of JWST “flight hardware, by weight, is either ready to be fabricated, in fabrication, in testing, or delivered.” He declined to specify a cost estimate or launch date because discussions among NASA, its contractors and international partners on a “sustainable path forward…based on a realistic cost, funding, and schedule assessment” are ongoing. He said a decision would be announced as part of the FY2013 budget request. The prime contractor for JWST is Northrop Grumman. The program is being conducted in cooperation with the European Space Agency, which will launch it on an Ariane rocket.

Where NASA will find the money to compensate for the overrun is the critical issue. Scientists in other NASA space and earth science discplines worry that their programs will be sacrificed. Ordinarily if a NASA science project encounters cost overruns, the additional costs must be found within that same science discipline, but if an overrun is big enough and the program important enough, dipping into other programs’ budgets is permitted, even outside of the Science Mission Directorate. Of course, any NASA budget decision is subject to approval successively by the NASA Administrator, the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and, ultimately, Congress.

The House Appropriations Committee recommended that JWST be terminated when it approved its version of the FY2012 Commerce-Justice-Science appropriations bill. The Senate Appropriations Committee, scheduled to markup its version of the bill at subcommittee level on Wednesday, is expected to be more friendly. JWST’s development is managed by Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) in Greenbelt, MD and STScI is in Baltimore. The chair of the Senate appropriations subcommittee that funds NASA, Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D), represents Maryland and is an enthusiastic supporter of space and earth science generally. The question remains, however, as to where the money will be found.

The American Astronomical Society (AAS), which is often viewed as the voice of the astrophysics community, is strongly supportive of JWST. Rifts have opened recently, however, as summarized in today’s issue of The Space Review. In a mailing to its members today that is posted on SpaceRef, the AAS leadership stresses that they support all of their disciplines and not one “to the detriment of others.” They urge their members to recall Abraham Lincoln’s admonition that “A house divided against itself cannot stand.”

Dr. John Mather, who co-won the 2006 Nobel Prize in Physics for discovery of the cosmic microwave background, is a senior project scientist for JWST at GSFC whose name is almost synonymous with the program’s scientific goals. He and 31 other Nobel Laureates signed a letter to the editor of the New York Times on August 26, 2011 arguing that “every possible effort should be made to launch the Webb as early as possible.”

The STScI webinar is at 2:00 pm EDT on September 19. Mather is not one of the participants, however. The three speakers are Matt Mountain, STScI director; Eric Smith, JWST Deputy Program Director at NASA Headquarters; and Roberto Abraham, University of Toronto.

UPDATES: The Senate Appropriations CJS subcommittee markup has now been officially announced, and is on Wednesday, and the full committee will meet on Thursday to markup CJS and other appropriations bills. Also, NASA has changed its mind and now will air the NASA-ATK commercial crew announcement on NASA TV on Tuesday. NASA also has announced a news conference on Thursday about Kepler.

The following events may be of interest in the week ahead. For more information, check our calendar on the right menu or click the links below. The House and Senate both are in session this week.

Monday-Friday, September 12-15

• World Satellite Business Week, Paris, France, including
  • Symposium on Market Forecasts, September 12
  • World Summit for Satellite Financing, September 13-15
  • Symposium on Earth Observation Business, September 15-16
• National Aerospace Week (see this website for a list of activities, some of which also are listed below)

Tuesday, September 13

• Secure World Foundation-IFRI conference European Space Governance, Brussels, Belgium
• HSS&T Hearing on STEM Education, 2318 Rayburn House Office Building, 10:00 am EDT
• Senate Appropriations subcommittee markup FY2012 defense appropriations bill, 192 Dirksen Senate Office Building, 10:30 am EDT (listed in National Journal’s Daybook, but not yet on the committee’s website)
• NASA announcement of agreement with ATK on commercial crew, Kennedy Space Center, FL, 3:00 pm EDT. Watch on NASA TV.
• John Logsdon lecture on “Human Spaceflight: A Historical Perspective on an Uncertain Future,” National Air and Space Museum, 600 Independence Ave,, NW, Washington, DC, 4:00 pm EDT (RSVP required, see our calendar on the right menu for more details)

Tuesday-Friday, September 13-16

• AMOS conference on space surveillance, Maui, Hawaii

Wednesday, September 14

• AIA Launch of Budget Education Campaign, Holeman Lounge, National Press Club, Washington, DC, 10:00 am
• Senate Aerospace Caucus luncheon (part of National Aerospace Week), 325 Russell Senate Office Building, 11:30 am – 1:30 pm EDT
• Senate Appropriations CJS subcommittee markup, 192 Dirksen Senate Office Building, 2:30 pm EDT

Thursday, September 15

• National Defense Industrial Association (NDIA) National Aerospace Week breakfast, Army and Navy Club, Farragut Square, Washington DC, 7:30 am EDT
• House Aerospace Caucus luncheon (part of National Aerospace Week), 2325 Rayburn House Office Building, 11:30 am – 1:30 pm EDT
• HASC Hearing on Sustaining GPS for National Security, 2212 Rayburn House Office Building, 11:30 am EDT
• NASA news conference on Kepler mission at Ames Research Center, 11:00 am PDT (2:00 pm EDT)
• Senate Appropriations full committee markup of CJS and other appropriations bils, 216 Hart Senate Office Building, 2:00 pm EDT
• Soyuz TMA-21 scheduled landing in Kazakhstan, 11:01 CDT (12:01 am September 16 EDT) Watch on NASA TV

Friday, September 16

• Soyuz TMA-21 landing 12:01 am EDT (see above)
• President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) meeting on NOAA’s environmental observation and prediction programs, Marriott Metro Center, 775 12^th St, NW, Washington DC, 10:15-11:15 am EDT

NASA anticipates that pieces of its Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) will survive the trip through Earth’s atmosphere when the satellite reenters later this month or in early October.

A set of slides on NASA’s UARS website show that 56 “potentially hazardous objects [are] expected to survive,” with a total mass of 532 kilograms. The “estimated human casualty risk” is approximately 1 in 3,200.

The satellite was launched in 1991 and completed its mission in 2005. The slides point out that at the time UARS was designed, built, and launch, “no NASA or [U.S. Government] human casualty risk limits existed.”

The satellite is in an orbit inclined 57 degrees to the equator, which means that it could reenter anywhere on the globe between 57 degrees north and 57 degrees south latitude, which is most of the populated region of Earth. The Earth’s surface, however, is 70 percent water, so the risk to human health and safety is less than what one might initially infer. In the 54 year history of the Space Age, there have been no confirmed reports of injuries to humans from falling space debris, although pieces have been recovered. NASA urges anyone who finds anything that might be a piece of UARS debris to not touch it, but to contact local law enforcement for assistance.

When UARS will reenter is uncertain, since it is dependent on variables such as solar activity. NASA plans to post weekly updates at the UARS website until four days before reentry and then more frequently.

Although NASA cannot predict exactly where the debris will reenter, it says that the debris footprint will be 500 miles long.

The Joint Space Operations Center (JPSoC) of U.S. Strategic Command is the official government agency responsible for reentry predictions of uncontrolled space objects, although NASA has its own orbital debris office at Johnson Space Center.

The Obama Administration’s strategy to have NASA and the Department of Energy (DOE) share the costs of restarting plutonium-238 (Pu-238) production hit another roadblock this week. The Senate Appropriations Committee approved its version of the FY2012 Energy-Water Appropriations bill zeroing the requested DOE funds for the project.

The Senate committee action mirrors action in the House. This is the third year DOE’s appropriators have said no. The first time, the Obama Administration proposed that DOE fully fund the costs of restarting Pu-238 production. Historically, DOE had borne those costs since it is the only federal agency authorized to have nuclear materials. In these constrained budget times, however, Congress has been looking to see who benefits from the expenditures of funds. Those in charge of DOE’s budget feel that since NASA is the agency that needs the Pu-238, then NASA should pay for it. Last year and this year, the Administration proposed that the agencies split the costs, but the DOE appropriators’ stance has not changed — NASA should pay for it. The Senate committee report says simply that it provides no funding for it.

NASA needs Pu-238 to provide electrical power for its lunar and planetary probes that cannot rely on solar energy because of their destinations. The U.S. supply of Pu-238 is depleted and NASA has been purchasing it from Russia. Russia’s stores also are running dry.

A 2009 National Research Council report called the need for restarting Pu-238 production “imperative.” NASA’s lunar and planetary exploration plans have changed significantly since then with the redirection of the human spaceflight program and overall NASA budget constraints, however. Whether or not it remains imperative is unclear.

UPDATE 2: GRAIL has been launched.

UPDATE: Upper level winds have pushed GRAIL to the second launch opportunity this morning, at 9:08:52.

Launch of NASA’s twin GRAIL spacecraft is scheduled for 8:29:45 this morning and so far the countdown is proceeding nominally. The weather forecast has improved since last night, and there is currently an 80 percent chance of favorable conditions. Follow us on Twitter @SpcPlcyOnline to keep up on the action, or watch NASA’s live TV coverage.

The launch of the twin GRAIL lunar probes has been postponed another day, to Saturday, September 10.

NASA stated that it needed “additional time to review propulsion data from Thursday’s detanking operation.” That detanking followed a postponement of the launch yesterday due to high level winds.

There are two launch opportunities on Saturday: 8:29:45 am and 9:08:52 am EDT. The launch is on a Delta II rocked from Cape Canaveral.

NASA’s GRAIL twin robotic lunar probes are set for launch tomorrow morning and the weather is looking a little better.

The launch was scrubbed on Thursday because of upper level winds. NASA was going to try to launch today, but wanted to look at propulsion system data from the detanking operation on Thursday. They concluded everything is OK.

The forecast is for 60 percent favorable weather at launch time. Two “instantaneous” launch windows are available: 8:29:45 and 9:08:52.