The final report of the Augustine committee on the future of the U.S. human space flight program was released at a press conference today. Mr. Augustine said there would be no surprises in the final report, but there is at least one clarification that was made during his remarks concerning the budget implications of the committee’s findings.

Considerable confusion has been evident about whether the committee concluded that NASA needs $3 billion per year more between now and FY2014 for its human space flight program, or if it is a gradual ramp up over those years so that by FY2014 the NASA budget is $3 billion more than currently projected. Not in dispute is the committee’s conclusion that the budget should rise with inflation after FY2014 at a rate of 2.4%, but another question was whether those figures include the additional costs for the space shuttle in FY2011 if launches slip into the first half of that year, and the additional costs for extending the International Space Station to 2020.

At the press conference, Mr. Augustine clearly stated that the human space flight budget needs to “gradually ramp up until FY2014, until you’ve added $3 billion to the current budget projections” and then preserve that level, protecting against inflation. In a side discussion after the press conference, committee member Ed Crawley added that those funds include the additional shuttle and space station costs as well.

A chart and accompanying text on p. 81 of the final report shows the “less constrained” budget profile the committee developed and states that it rises “from the FY2010 budget number to a sum $3 billion higher in 2014” and then rises at 2.4% thereafter.

The confusion originates with the committee’s summary report, which states in two places that it is an “annual” or “per year” increase between now and FY2014.

“The Committee further finds that it is possible to conduct a viable exploration program with a budget rising to about $3 billion annually above the FY 2010 budget profile.” (bottom of p. 10) Emphasis added.

“Meaningful human exploration is possible under a less constrained budget, ramping to approximately $3 billion per year above the FY 2010 guidance in total resources.” (p. 12) Emphasis added.

However, on the top of p. 10 of the summary report, the committee said:

“This budget increases to $3 billion above the FY 2010 guidance by FY 2014…” Emphasis added

Adding to the confusion are comments made by committee member Lester Lyles on Tuesday at a Women in Aerospace/Washington Space Business Roundtable luncheon, quoted this way by spacepolitics.com.

Lyles was also asked about the $3-billion-a-year NASA budget increase mentioned in the committee’s report, since there was some confusion about whether that increased[sic] would be gradually phased in over several years or added all at once. Lyles believed it to be the latter. “I will tell you going in, in our final session, we were talking about not a ramp up, we were talking about $3 billion a year” added immediately, a “step increase”.

SpaceNews.com quoted General Lyles similarly:

I’m not sure what has changed in our final deliberations. I will tell you going in, in our final session, we were talking not a ramp up, we were talking about $3 billion a year,” he said. “We thought at least that was necessary, not to get us back to where we should have been if the budget hadn’t been constrained since 2004, that would take probably significantly more dollars if you will, but we certainly weren’t talking about a ramp up, we were talking about a step increase, if you will.”

Lyles said that $3 billion annual increase would not include additional funding to keep the station going beyond 2016, an expense not included in NASA’s current budget plan.

“As I recall, we were talking about $3 billion not including whatever extension was necessary to the shuttle, and not including either funds for the international space station to extend it, or God forbid, that there weren’t even funds in the budget to de-orbit the station,” he said, referring to the panel’s recommendation to safely fly out the space shuttle manifest in 2011, rather than retiring the orbiter in 2010 as planned. The panel also urged the administration to consider extending the space station to 2020 or 2025, years beyond NASA’s planned de-orbiting date of 2016.

The committee’s final report also leaves room for interpretation. In the executive summary, the statements that were at the bottom of page 10 and on page 12 of the summary report are modified, but still refer to annual increases.

“The Committee further finds that it is possible to conduct a viable exploration program with a budget rising to about $3 billion annually in real purchasing power above the FY2010 budget profile.” (page 16 of final report)

“Meaningful human exploration is possible under a less-constrained budget, increasing annual expenditures by approximately $3 billion in real purchasing power above the FY2010 guidance.” (page 17 of final report)

As noted, however, page 81 of the final report has a chart and text describing the committee’s proposed budget this way:

“For planning and evaluation purposes, the Committee created a second budget profile that rose from the FY 2010 budget number to a sum $3 billion higher in 2014, and then rose at an expected inflation rate of 2.4 percent thereafter (Figure 6.2.3-1).”

Adding the comments of Mr. Augustine and Dr. Crawley today, it would seem that this is the correct one. Note that the chart shows funding only for the human space flight portion of the NASA budget, not the entire NASA budget.

Reactions by Members of Congress to the Augustine committee report illuminate the challenging road that still lies ahead for decisions on the future of the human space flight program.

Senator Shelby(R-AL), ranking member of the appropriations subcommittee that funds NASA, strongly criticized the Augustine committee’s optimism about relying on commercial companies to launch astronauts into low Earth orbit instead of NASA’s Constellation program on the Senate floor yesterday, before the final report was released. He also issued a press statement today. His floor statement focused on whether the committee adequately assessed the safety implications of alternatives to Constellation, saying the committee’s findings were “worthless” without an “honest and thorough examination.”

“When making comparisons on the safety and performance of the various options, fundamental design differences cannot be lumped together and considered to be equal. Without an honest and thorough examination of the safety and reliability aspects of the various designs and options, the findings of this report are worthless. I would like to know why this blue ribbon panel did not examine these safety aspects.”

“Pretty slides and unproven promises will not show us you have the right stuff to be entrusted with the lives of our astronauts. If these companies can be successful-and there is no reason to doubt that eventually, someday, somehow they will be-then NASA, the Congress, and the public might be willing to hand over launches to low Earth orbit. That day is not today and it will not be for years to come.”

Senator Jay Rockefeller (D-WV), chair of the Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee, which authorizes NASA activities, did not appear overly enthusiastic about space activities in general.

Today, as the Augustine Commission delivers the final report to the President, ongoing budget challenges mean that we have to establish our priorities and make difficult choices, said Chairman Rockefeller. Our space program is at a critical juncture, this is no longer the era of Apollo and the Cold War where the payoffs for advancing the space and Moon agenda are unquestionable. The President, I am sure, will continue to struggle with these same questions as he reviews the commission’s findings and options. As we move forward, I am committed to working with the administration on developing an achievable vision for NASA.

By contrast, Senate Commerce Ranking Member Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) emphasized the importance of the space program to the country:

The release of this report today marks the beginning of what must be a crucial discussion about America’s future role in space. Our current programs are simply unsustainable under the NASA budget and could potentially make plans to use the station until 2020 impossible. Failure to act threatens America’s foundation in space. Congress and the President must work together to address these mounting challenges if our nation is to continue its role as a world leader in space.

Senator Bill Nelson (D-FL), who chairs that committee’s subcommittee on Science and Space, vowed to work with the President to fund human space flight. Saying that the President “assured me that NASA will get enough money to do what it does best: go explore the heavens, he added Whatever the president chooses, I will continue to fight to get NASA the funding it needs for the next generation of human spaceflight.

Senator John Cornyn (R-TX), who joined other members of the Texas congressional delegation in sending a letter to President Obama on October 5 urging him to allocate $3 billion of the stimulus funds to NASA, said today that:

“It would be extremely damaging if the Obama Administration, based on their own committee’s findings, continues to delay taking the necessary action of setting a course for NASA and devoting the necessary resources and leadership to ensure the agency is able to achieve its goals. I call on President Obama to use today’s report release from his committee as a catalyst for submitting to Congress an appropriate mission and budget for NASA and a robust human space flight program.”

Senate progress on completing the Commerce-Justice-Science appropriations bill (H.R. 2847), which funds NASA, NSF, and NOAA, has slowed due to a Vitter-Bennett amendment that would prohibit funding for the upcoming 2010 census and future censuses unless “questions regarding United States citizenship and immigration status” are included. The amendment prompted protests at the Capitol today by a number of civil rights groups and a rally against the proposal is scheduled for Thursday* according to Congress Daily (subscription required). Senator Bennett’s explanation of the amendment on the Senate floor is available on YouTube.

The census is conducted every 10 years as required by Article 1 Section 2 of the U.S. Constitution (as modified by Amendment XIV) in order to apportion seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, though the data are used for many other purposes.

*Congress Daily reported this evening that the rally will take place on Thursday instead of tomorrow as originally reported. The slip apparently is due to schedule conflicts.

NASA plans to delay the next space shuttle launch, STS-129 (Atlantis), by four days to November 16, 2009. According to a NASA press release and media reports, the delay is to allow additional flexibility in the launch of the Ares 1-X test now scheduled for October 27 and to ease conflicting duties among Kennedy Space Center personnel assigned to both missions. NASA also has to deconflict its launches from Atlas 5 and Delta 4 launches scheduled at neighboring Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, not to mention avoiding meteor showers. The shuttle launch window closes on November 18 and will reopen December 6, according to Space.com.

NASA makes the distinction between targeting November 16 as the new launch date and scheduling the new date in its press release; the new date has not yet been scheduled for the Eastern Test Range (which includes both NASA’s Kennedy Space Center and the Air Force’s adjacent launch pads). The launch date will not be scheduled until after the STS-129 Flight Readiness Review on October 29.

The chairman of the Committee to Review U.S. Human Space Flight Plans, Norman Augustine, along with committee member, Ed Crawley, will hold a press conference at 1:00 p.m. EDT, on Thursday, Oct. 22 in the Zenger Room of the National Press Club, to release the committee’s final report. According to the NASA press release, copies of the report will be available during the press conference as well as online on the committee’s website.

A SpacePolicyOnline.com 1-pager summarizing the committee’s “summary report” released in September 2009 is available.

A “Launch-on-Need” (LON) shuttle mission after what is currently scheduled as the final space shuttle launch is under evaluation by NASA according to the website NASASpaceFlight.com. Currently the last shuttle mission is STS-133. The additional mission is designated either STS-135 LON or STS-335 according to the report.

Such a mission would provide a rescue capability should STS-133 suffer damage that would prevent the crew from using it for the flight back to the Earth and they must use the ISS as a “safe haven” while awaiting a rescue flight. ISS crews have Soyuz spacecraft available to take them back to Earth in an emergency, but there are only enough seats for the ISS crewmembers, not a shuttle crew.

STS-133 is a utilization flight to the ISS. STS-134 is scheduled to take the Alpha Magnetic Spectrometer to the space station and originally was to have followed STS-133. NASA switched places for those last two flights (see NASA’s list of upcoming ISS missions).

STS-133 is currently scheduled for launch on September 16, 2010. NASA announced the six-person STS-133 crew last month. NASASpaceflight.com states that the STS-335 mission would launch in December 2010 if it were needed.

Only six shuttle flights formally remain on NASA’s schedule:

• STS-129, Atlantis, Nov. 12, 2009, ELC 1 and ELC 2
• STS-130, Endeavour, Feb. 4, 2010, Tranquility Node 3 and Cupola
• STS-131, Discovery, Mar. 18, 2010, MPLM and LMC
• STS-132, Atlantis, May 14, 2010, ICC and MRM1
• STS-134, Endeavour, July 29, 2010, AMS and ELC 3
• STS-133, Discovery, Sept. 16, 2010, MPLM and ELC 4

ELC = Express Logistics Carrier
MPLM = MultiPurpose Logistics Module
LMC = Lightweight Multi-Purpose Experiment Support Structure Carrier
MRM = Mini Research Module

The Augustine committee on the future of the human space flight program concluded in its summary report that a more prudent schedule would assume that the remaining flights are “likely to stretch into the second quarter of 2011.”

NASA managers are assessing whether they can hold to the scheduled October 27 launch of Ares 1-X following a decision to delay roll-out to the launch pad by one day. Roll-out will now take place on October 20 instead of October 19. The delay was caused by a nitrogen gas leak in an accumulator in the aft skirt of the rocket, according to the NASA press release. The accumulator has been replaced.

Ares 1-X is designed to simulate the first two minutes of an Ares 1 launch. It will use a simulated Ares 1 rocket and simulated Orion crew capsule and its launch abort system. Ares 1 and Orion are part of the Constellation program designed to return astronauts to the Moon by 2020. The future of the U.S. human space flight program, including Constellation, is under review by the Obama Administration. The final report of the Augustine committee that was created by the White House and NASA to develop options for human space flight is expected to be released imminently.

The following events may be of interest next week. See our calendar on the right menu for more information or click on the links below. Note that congressional activities are subject to change. For hearings, check with the relevant committee for up-to-date information. For floor action, check the websites of the House and Senate.

During the Week

• The Senate may resume consideration of the Commerce-Justice-Science appropriations bill, H.R 2847 (which includes NASA, NOAA and NSF)
• Conferees may meet on the DOD appropriations bill, H.R. 3326
• The Senate may vote on the conference report on the DOD authorization bill, H.R. 2647

Sunday-Wednesday, October 18-21

• GeoINT 2009 Symposium, San Antonio, TX

Monday-Tuesday, October 19-20

• Committee on Earth Studies, Space Studies Board, National Research Council, Washington, D.C. Some sessions of this meeting may be closed.

Wednesday, October 21

• Senate Commerce subcommittee hearing on The Case for Space: Examining the Value of Space Exploration, 253 Russell Senate Office Building, 2:30 pm

Thursday, October 22

• House Science and Technology subcommittee hearing on Strengthening NASA’s Technology Development Programs, 2318 Rayburn House Office Building, 10:00 am

Saturday, October 24

• American Branch of the International Law Association (ABILA), panel on Satellite Collisions, Space Debris and the Liability Convention. Fordham University School of Law, New York City, 2:15-3:45 pm

Senator Jay Rockefeller (D-WV), chairman of the Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee, opened a nomination hearing yesterday by saying that NASA “is trailed around with a bit of public skepticism … particularly in the question of fiscal responsibility and accountability….” He added “NASA has gone without an effective Inspector General for too long…. I think there is a lot of waste, fraud and abuse at NASA.”

The hearing included the nominations for Beth Robinson to be NASA’s Chief Financial Officer and Paul Martin to be NASA’s Inspector General. The Senate Commerce committee oversees NASA and authorizes NASA activities. The Senator’s comments come at minute 32:50 on the webcast, available on the committee’s website. His written statement is also available there.

Senator Hutchison (R-TX), ranking member of the committee, disagreed, saying that she does not think people are skeptical about NASA (36:45). She said that NASA’s operations are very constrained by a limited budget. Senator Hutchison is one of NASA’s strongest supporters in the Senate, but has announced her plans to resign from the Senate soon to run for Governor of Texas.

During Q&A later in the hearing (94:36), Senator Rockefeller pointed out that it is not just that NASA cannot pass a financial audit, but cannot even prepare its financial records to allow its independent auditor, Ernst & Young, to do its job. He asked Dr. Robinson how she would fix that. She said that discovering the root causes and putting in place mechanisms that lead to success are her top priorities. Still later (121:15), he cited the waste, fraud and abuse in Medicare and wondered about how much there is at NASA that could be recovered and used for activities NASA wants to pursue. He quoted the Government Accountability Office (GAO) as saying that NASA’s IG office recovers less than 40 cents for every budget dollar it receives, well below the average of $9 that other agency IG’s recover. Martin said he would assess the auditors and investigators in the NASA IG office and reprioritize and reposition people if needed to go after important issues and high dollar issues. In wrapping up the hearing, the Senator referred to “constituencies in the world of NASA” who are “very ambitious” and that he goes “blooey” hearing about plans to “pay $1 million and travel to the Moon” and doesn’t know how to react. (127:15).

Senator George LeMieux (R-FL) — appointed by Florida Governor Crist last month to replace Mel Martinez, who resigned after serving four years of his six year term — also expressed concern about “irregularities” at NASA and emphasized the need to “get 100 cents worth of every dollar” spent at the agency. (102:50) Senator LeMieux is Governor Crist’s former chief of staff and is not expected to run for the Senate seat; Governor Crist is running for that position.

The Government Accountability Office (GAO) looked at a variety of NASA programs to determine if they duplicated work in other agencies and found none that did. The study was requested by Congress in the 2008 NASA Authorization Act.

The Act directed GAO to look at all NASA programs and activities with a FY2009 funding level of $50 million or above. GAO identified 33 of 38 NASA programs that met that threshold and then focused on areas within the Science Mission Directorate, the Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate, and the Office of Education. It excluded “space operations and exploration missions that are unique to NASA.” It then “judgmentally selected” a subset of projects and activities to compare with similar activities in other organizations. GAO’s conclusion was that:

“We found no apparent duplication among the selected projects or activities. Although we did not look at all programs within NASA, policies, procedures and mechanisms are in place that facilitate the avoidance of duplication by engaging in collaboration and coordination between NASA and other federal agencies.”

Representative Bart Gordon (D-TN), chairman of the House Science and Technology Committee, released a statement saying that:

“While I strongly believe that NASA should be given the resources and tools necessary to do all the things this nation has asked it to do, I don’t view investing in NASA as a blank check. This Committee is cognizant of its responsibility for ensuring that NASA is being a good steward of the resources given to it by American taxpayers…” “”This GAO report provides concrete confirmation that NASA is not engaging in duplicative activities and is appropriately coordinating with other federal agencies.”