Russian space experts continue to try to determine exactly what went wrong when Progress M-27M and its Soyuz 2.1a rocket separated on April 28.  Telemetry data reportedly are not enough to solve the mystery.

Russia’s official Tass news agency quotes an unnamed Russian space industry source as saying that “the telemetry data are not enough” and members of the State Commission investigating the incident are going to the companies that manufactured various components to inspect others from the same batches to try and recreate whatever went wrong.

Roscosmos and NASA indicated earlier this week that the investigation would finish by May 22, but Tass reported today that may slip.  “True, some findings may be presented by May 22,” it quotes the industry source, but “specialists will keep working at individual enterprises after that date.”

Progress M-27M was launched on April 28, but something went wrong when it separated from the third stage of its Soyuz launch vehicle that left both of them in incorrect orbits and the robotic cargo spacecraft spinning.   Control of the spacecraft was lost and it reentered over the Pacific Ocean on May 7 Eastern Standard Time (May 8 Moscow Time).  Initial speculation that the third stage exploded was ruled out in a preliminary report from the State Commission earlier this week. Roscosmos said on May 12  that determining the cause would require in depth computational and theoretical studies as well as modeling.

Russia, NASA and the other International Space Station (ISS) partners agreed on Tuesday to a revised schedule of crew and cargo flights to and from the ISS.  The return of Soyuz TMA-15M with three ISS crew members, planned for May 13, will wait until early June and the launch of their replacements was delayed from May 26 to July 24.   A different version of the Soyuz rocket is used for transporting crews to the ISS. 

The revised schedule calls for accelerating the next launch of a Progress cargo mission from August 6 to early July.   Progress M-27M was the second of four planned Progress launches to the ISS this year.  It was carrying three tons of food, fuel and other cargo.  NASA says that the loss of the spacecraft is not affecting U.S. operations on ISS, but Roscosmos has not indicated whether its crew activities are impacted.  

In addition to Russia’s Progress, ISS is resupplied by two U.S. commercial cargo vehicles — SpaceX’s Dragon and Orbital ATK’s Cygnus — and Japan’s HTV.  A Dragon is currently attached to ISS and three more launches are scheduled this year.  An HTV launch is planned for August and a Cygnus is expected by the end of the year.   NASA said on Tuesday, however, that the schedule of launches for the rest of the year remains under review.

NASA refers to Progress M-27M as Progress 59 because it is the 59th Progress to service the ISS, but many more Progress missions have been conducted since the first was launched in 1977.  Progress cargo ships supported the Soviet/Russian space stations Salyut 6, Salyut 7 and Mir before ISS.

NASA and its partners in the International Space Station (ISS) program decided today to extend the mission of three ISS crew members who were supposed to return to Earth tomorrow and postpone the launch of their replacements. The schedule change was prompted by the failure of Russia’s robotic Progress M-27M spacecraft last week.

Progress M-27M reentered over the Pacific Ocean on May 7 Eastern Daylight Time (EDT) and Roscosmos proposed changes to ISS crew and cargo flights at that time.  NASA announced today agreement among all the partners to the revised schedule, though exact dates have not been determined.  The ISS is a partnership among the United States, Russia, Canada, Japan, and 11 European countries working through the European Space Agency (ESA).

NASA’s Terry Virts, ESA’s Samantha Cristoforetti and Roscosmos’ Anton Shkaplerov were scheduled to return to Earth on their Soyuz TMA-15 spacecraft tomorrow (May 13).  The exact date for their rescheduled return in early June will be determined later.  The launch of their replacements on Soyuz TMA-17M will be postponed from May 26 to late July.   The three other ISS crew members now aboard ISS are NASA’s Scott Kelly, and Roscosmos’ Mikhail Kornienko and Gennady Padalka.  Kelly and Kornienko are part of the first one-year mission aboard ISS and will not return until March 2016.  Padalka is currently scheduled to come home in September.

Progress M-27M was launched on April 28, 2015 EDT and immediately ran into trouble.  A malfunction at the time it separated from the third stage of its Soyuz 2.1a rocket left both in incorrect orbits and the Progress spacecraft spinning.  One theory is that the third stage exploded, debris punctured the spacecraft’s fuel line, and venting fuel put Progress into a spin.  Roscosmos said today that the State Commission investigating the accident will conclude its work by May 22.

Progress M-27M was the second of four planned Progress cargo missions to the ISS this year.  The next had been scheduled for August 6, but the new schedule will accelerate that by about a month.

The new plan is as follows:

• Return of Soyuz TMA-15M (Virts, Cristoforetti, Shkaplerov) in early June instead of on May 13
• Progress M-28M launch in early July instead of August 6
• Launch of Soyuz TMA-17M with Kjell Lindgren (NASA), Kimiya Yui (Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency) and Oleg Kononenko (Roscosmos) in late July instead of on May 26

NASA refers to Progress M-27M as Progress 59 because it is the 59th Progress to resupply ISS, but the Progress spacecraft has been in use by Russia since 1977 so there have been many more flights than that.  It was carrying three tons of food, fuel and other supplies for the ISS crew, but NASA insists that U.S. operations are not affected by the failure.  

A U.S. SpaceX Dragon cargo craft is currently attached to the ISS, and three more are scheduled this year.  Japan’s HTV cargo spacecraft is scheduled for launch in August and the U.S. Orbital ATK Cygnus cargo spacecraft is expected to be launched by the end of the year.  NASA said, however, that all of the dates for the remaining flights to ISS this year are under review. 

UPDATE, May 7, 2015, 8:30 pm EDT:  Aerospace Corp’s latest prediction is May 8 02:41 UTC ±2 hrs. Subtract 4 for EDT.   Its groundtrack is:

Source: Aerospace Corporation

UPDATE, May 7, 2015, 7:45 pm EDT:  JSpOC’s newest prediction is 01:52 GMT May 8, which is 9:52 pm EDT tonight (May 7).

UPDATE, May 7, 2015, 2:05 pm EDT:   Roscosmos has issued a new update, estimating the reentry will occur between 01:13 and 04:51 Moscow Time on May 8.  That is today, May 7, between 6:13 pm and 9:51 pm EDT.  JSpOC’s latest estimate is 01:36 UTC on May 8 which is 9:36 pm EDT tonight.  Aerospace Corp’s latest is May 8, 01:08 UTC  ± 2 hours (subtract 4 for EDT) and it has posted a ground track showing the reentry path.

ORIGINAL STORY, May 7, 2015, 8:27 am EDT:  Russia’s space agency Roscosmos has refined its estimate of when the Progress M-27M spacecraft will reenter Earth’s atmosphere.  Its current estimate is on May 8 between 00:45 and 06:26 Moscow Time, which is May 7 (today) 5:45 pm – 11:26 pm Eastern Daylight Time (EDT).  It plans to issue an update later today.

Russia is not the only source of estimates of the reentry time. 

• T.S. Kelso’s (@TSKelso) latest calculation is May 8 at 0859 UTC ± 24 hours, which is May 8 (Friday) at 4:59 am EDT.  However, since there is a 24 hour window, that could mean anytime between now (May 7) and Saturday (May 9) morning. 
• The Aerospace Corporation’s current estimate is May 8 at 23:09 UTC ± 18 hours, which is May 8 at 7:09 pm EDT.  Adjust for the ± 18 hours and that provides a Friday-Saturday window of May 8 at 5:09 UTC – May 9 at 17:09 UTC, or  May 8 at 1:09 am EDT – May 9 at 3:09 pm EDT.
• The U.S. Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) estimate posted on space-track.org is May 8 at 03:32 UTC, which is today, May 7, at 11:32 pm EDT, very close to the end of the window calculated by Roscosmos.

The fact that so many estimates exist illustrates the difficulty in calculating when any space object will reenter in an uncontrolled situation like this.   Many factors must be taken into account including solar activity and the size, shape and composition of the object.   The only factor known with certainty is the boundaries of the latitude on Earth where surviving debris could fall, which is set by the object’s orbital parameters.  In this case, Progress M-27M is in a 51.6 degree orbit, so debris could fall anywhere between 51.6 degrees North latitude and 51.6 degrees South latitude.  Since 70 percent of the world’s surface is water, and much of the land is sparsely populated, the chances of debris hitting a person or building is small, but does exist.

Progress M-27M was launched on a Soyuz- 2.1a rocket from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan on April 28.  A malfunction in the rocket or spacecraft caused it to fail as it reached orbit.  The failure is still under investigation.  NASA refers to it as Progress 59 because it is the 59th Progress to resupply the International Space Station (ISS).   This is the second of four planned Progress resupply flights this year.  The schedule for the remaining two is uncertain until the cause of this failure is understood and rectified. 

ISS is also supplied by two U.S. spacecraft (SpaceX’s Dragon and Orbital ATK’s Cygnus) and Japan’s HTV.  A Dragon is currently attached to ISS and three more launches are planned this year.  An HTV launch is scheduled for August and a Cygnus is expected by the end of the year.  NASA says U.S. operations aboard the ISS will not be affected by the loss of this Progress.

Russia’s failed Progress M-27M cargo spacecraft is expected to reenter Earth’s atmosphere on Wednesday or Thursday Eastern Daylight Time (EDT), Russia’s Roscosmos space agency said today.  Launched on April 28 EDT, the spacecraft and/or its launch vehicle suffered a failure that left it in the wrong orbit and made it incapable of docking with the International Space Station (ISS) as planned.  The failure is still under investigation.

Progress M-27M was launched on a Soyuz 2-1a rocket at 3:09 am EDT on April 28.  Shortly after reaching orbit, Russian flight controllers began receiving conflicting data from the spacecraft about the deployment of solar panels and rendezvous antennas.  Video from an on-board camera showed the spacecraft rotating several times a minute.  Within a day, the Russians declared that the mission was lost. 

The spacecraft is carrying about three tons of food, fuel and other supplies for the ISS crew. This is the second of four planned Progress missions to ISS this year.  Other spacecraft also resupply the ISS (a U.S. SpaceX Dragon is attached there now and three more are planned this year, a Japanese HTV is scheduled for launch in August, and a U.S. Orbital ATK Cygnus may also be launched this year) so the crew members are fine.

Roscosmos today predicted that the spacecraft will reenter on May 8, 2015 between 1:23 am and 9:55 pm Moscow Time, which is between 6:23 pm May 7 and 2:00 pm May 8 EDT. Most of the spacecraft is expected to burn up during reentry, although Roscosmos said some small pieces may survive. Russia’s official Itar-Tass news agency quotes an unnamed industry official as identifying “more than a dozen spherical tanks” made of “thick-walled metal” as the most likely to survive because of their composition and the fact that they are sheltered by the spacecraft’s hull.

Ordinarily, Progress spacecraft make a controlled deorbit into the Pacific Ocean at the end of their mission, but that is not possible this time.  It is almost impossible to forecast where a spacecraft will reenter in an uncontrolled situation other than knowing its upper and lower latitude bounds which are set by its orbit.  In this case, that is between 51.6 degrees north latitude and 51.6 degrees south latitude.  Since 70 percent of the Earth’s surface is water, and much of the land is sparsely populated, the chances of damage to people or homes is small, but does exist.

Anatoly Zak at RussianSpaceWeb.com reports that experts are focusing on the last three seconds of the rocket’s firing and separation between the rocket and spacecraft as the time when the failure occurred.  Evidence increasingly points “toward an explosion aboard the rocket, which damaged the spacecraft, while some considerable force still propelled both vehicles to different orbits,” he writes, adding the spacecraft reportedly never fired its engines and propellant venting from “lines punctured by a nearby explosion of the third stage” set the spacecraft tumbling.

Update, April 30, 2015:   Russia’s space agency Roscosmos now predicts Progress M-27M will reenter between May 5-7 rather than May 3-4.

Original Story, April 29, 2015:  Russia’s official Itar-Tass news agency reports today that there is no hope of recovering the Progress M-27M cargo spacecraft launched yesterday.  The spacecraft is loaded with three tons of supplies for the International Space Station (ISS) crew.   What happened to the spacecraft during or shortly after launch is not yet known.

Progress M-27M lifted off from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan on time at 3:09 am Eastern Daylight Time (EDT) yesterday, April 28, 2015.   Whatever went wrong occurred close to the time that the spacecraft separated from the Soyuz rocket’s third stage.   Russian flight controllers received conflicting data about the spacecraft’s status and video from the spacecraft showed that it was spinning.

This morning EDT, Tass reported that the U.S. Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) had detected 44 pieces of debris “of unknown origin” in the orbit close to the Progress spacecraft.

A separate Tass story said that Russian space specialists “have agreed that Progress is hopeless, its controlled deorbiting is impossible.”  Three attempts today to communicate with the spacecraft were “futile.”  The report said that the spacecraft would reenter Earth’s atmosphere on May 3-4.

This is the second of four planned Progress missions to the ISS this year.   The other two are scheduled for launch on August 6 and October 22, but clearly those dates may change depending on the results of the investigation into this failure. 

Progress is one of four cargo spacecraft that service the ISS.   Two U.S. companies, SpaceX and Orbital ATK, have developed commercial cargo spacecraft — Dragon and Cygnus respectively.  Japan launches its HTV cargo spacecraft to the iSS.  A SpaceX Dragon is currently attached to the ISS and three more are scheduled for launch this year.  Orbital ATK is recovering from a launch failure last year that destroyed a Cygnus spacecraft and its cargo, but hopes to resume launches later this year.  An HTV is scheduled for launch in August.

NASA said yesterday that none of the cargo on the Progress M-27M was critical to U.S. operations on the ISS.  NASA refers to this as Progress 59 because it is the 59th Progress to be sent to the ISS, but it has a long history that predates ISS.