The top Democrat and the top Republican in the Senate reportedly are jointly working on a plan to avoid the fiscal cliff after a meeting at the White House this afterrnoon of top congressional leaders and the President.

Details are sketchy, but multiple news sources are reporting that Senator Harry Reid (D-NV) and Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY) agreed to spend the weekend trying to come up with a deal that will pass muster with both parties on both sides of Capitol Hill.  The Senate returned to work yesterday; the House will meet for legislative business on Sunday.

The news came after a one-hour meeting among top House and Senate Democratic and Republican leaders and President Obama, Vice President Biden, and top advisors.   The President said at a press conference after the meeting that if Reid and McConnell are unable to reach a bipartisan agreement, he will press for a Democratic proposal to be put forward instead for an up and down vote that would protect the middle class from tax increases, extend unemployment benefits, and lay the “groundwork for future cooperation on more economic growth and deficit reduction.”  He said he believed such a measure would pass both chambers if the leaders would allow it to come to a vote.  He called the meeting today “constructive.”

Ordinarily we’d be explaining that there are no interesting events for a couple of weeks while everyone celebrates the holidays, but this is not an ordinary year.  Here’s what we know — and don’t know — as 2012 ends and 2013 begins.

During the Weeks

It is totally unclear as to what will happen in Washington in the next two weeks with one exception — the 112th Congress will end and the 113th Congress will begin.  (Congresses last for two years.)  Whether the members of the 112th Congress can reach agreement to avoid the fiscal cliff that otherwise will occur in this time period or leave the mess to be cleaned up by the 113th Congress is anyone’s guess. 

The House recessed on Thursday with no fixed date to return for legislative business (it is scheduled to meet only in pro forma session).  House Speaker John Boehner reportedly told his House Republican Conference they were going home until after Christmas and perhaps for the rest of the year after he was unable to round up enough votes in his own party to pass his “Plan B” alternative to President Obama’s latest fiscal cliff avoidance offer.   Boehner’s Plan B included raising taxes on the wealthiest people (over $1 million) and conservative Republicans refused to agree.  They have consistently opposed any new taxes.  

The President responded by saying that he still thinks at least some sort of deal can be reached before the end of the year if everyone is willing to compromise.  He then headed off for his annual Christmas vacation in Hawaii, where he grew up, ready to return to Washington on Wednesday if progress is being made.  The Senate also is in recess with only pro forma sessions scheduled.  It is in the middle of debating a supplemental appropriations bill for the victims of Hurricane Sandy.

Some Washington pundits are trying to ratchet down the “fiscal cliff” rhetoric by calling it a “fiscal slope” to telegraph that the impacts may be more gradual than the word “cliff” implies.  In fact, from a political standpoint, there may be an advantage in letting the tax breaks expire on December 31.   The politicians could quickly pass new legislation in January to return the tax rates to the pre-December 31 level for everyone except the wealthiest people (whether that’s over $250,000 as the President had been insisting, over $400,000 as he recently compromised, or $1 million as Speaker Boenher proposed).   That would count as a tax cut rather than a tax increase and thereby not violate anyone’s pledge to never vote for a tax increase.  As for sequestration, it might be relatively easy to simply delay when it would go into effect, giving everyone time to come up with a better solution, even though they have not been able to find one in the past 17 months.

Two smaller space policy-related items on the “to do” list before the end of the year:

• Congress needs to pass and the President to sign legislation to extend authority for the FAA to indemnify launch service companies from third party claims for certain amounts of money (existing authority expires December 31); and
• The President needs to sign the FY2013 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), which the House and Senate passed late last week, including a number of important space-related provisions such as easing export controls on satellites.

The House had scheduled a vote last week on H.R. 6612 (McCarthy) to rename NASA’s Dryden Flight Research Center after Neil Armstrong, but it was never brought up.   There was no public word about progress on S. 3661 (Nelson-Hutchison), which would extend the indemnification provision, provide NASA with another waiver to the Iran-North Korea-Syria Nonproliferation Act (INKSNA) so it can purchase services from Russia for the International Space Station, and give NASA a mandate to explore cis-lunar space.  The House passed a bill in November to extend the indemnification provision only (H.R. 6586, Palazzo) that is awaiting Senate action. 

So all of those bills are still in play until the 112th Congress adjourns “sine die”  — “without a day” to reconvene, meaning the 112th Congress is over.  All pending legislation dies at the end of a Congress.   The 113th Congress will convene on January 3 with the new and returning members who were elected on November 6 and the cycle starts over again for the next two years.

Otherwise, we have only one specific space policy-related event on the calendar for the next two weeks:

Friday, January 4, 2013

• Philosophical Society of Washington Lecture on Human Role in Earth Evolution by David Grinspoon, Astrobiology Chair at the Library of Congress,  Washington, D.C., 8:30 pm ET

The following events may be of interest in the week ahead.  The House and Senate will be in session.

During the Week

The House Science, Space and Technology Committee will hold a hearing on Wednesday on the future of NASA.  The witnesses offer an interesting assortment of backgrounds. 

• Bob Walker, a former Republican Congressman who once chaired this committee, is now a prominent Washington lobbyist with the firm Wexler & Walker.   Walker has been an advocate for a strong, forward looking civil space program for many, many years, and chaired the 2001 Commission on the Future of the U.S. Aerospace Industry.  He is on the Board of Advisers of Golden Spike Co., which debuted last week as a company offering two-person trips to the lunar surface and back for $1.4 billion per mission.
• Ron Sega, a retired Air Force Major General and former astronaut with a long career in both military and civil space, is testifying as vice chair of the National Research Council (NRC) committee that issued its report on NASA’s strategic direction last week.
• Thomas Zurbuchen, a space scientist from the University of Michigan, was vice chair of another recently-released NRC report — the Decadal Survey for Solar and Space Physics.
• Marion Blakey is a former FAA Administrator who now leads the Aerospace Industries Association, which is intently focused on the dire consequences for the aerospace industry if sequestration goes into effect.
• Scott Pace, currently Director of the Space Policy Institute at George Washington University, was NASA’s Associate Administrator for Program Analysis and Evaluation when Mike Griffin was Administrator and closely involved in developing the Constellation program.  He chaired the space policy team for Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign.

Also on tap this week are negotiations over a final version of the FY2013 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) and, perhaps, a bill to give NASA another INKSNA waiver and extend third party liability indemnification for commercial launch service companies.  Amendments proposed to the Senate version of the NDAA for INKSNA and liability were not considered, so separate legislation is now in the works.  Most of those negotiations undoubtedly will be behind the scenes

And, of course, there might be news on the fiscal cliff situation.   President Obama and House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) are the key negotiators on that as the days tick down to the end of the year.  Spending cuts and tax increases will automatically take effect at that point unless Congress passes and the President signs new legislation to delay or change current law.  All federal activities, including national security and civil space programs, could be affected if the country stays on the current course.

Here is the full list of space policy-related events that we know about.   Feel free to send us information on anything we missed.

Monday, December 10

• NASM/APL Space Policy & History Forum featuring former astronaut Tom Jones, National Air & Space Museum (NASM), 600 Independence Ave., S.W., Washington, DC, 4:00 pm ET

Tuesday, December 11

• Washington Space Business Roundtable luncheon feature SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell, University Club, Washington, DC, 11:30 am – 1:30 pm ET

Wednesday, December 12

• House SS&T Committee Hearing on NASA’s Future, 2318 Rayburn House Office Building, 9:30 am ET

Editor’s Note:  This article was updated Dec. 10 to add the information about Bob Walker serving on the Board of Advisors of Golden Spike.

The Senate passed the FY2013 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) by a vote of 98-0 on Tuesday.    Amendments that could have affected NASA, FAA’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation, and export controls of commercial satellites were never considered.  The bill does, however, retain provisions affecting national security space programs approved by the Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC) when it reported the bill in June.

The text of the final Senate version of the bill is published in the December 5, 2012 Congressional Record.  The Senate bill, S. 3254, was subsequently passed again as an amendment to the House bill (H.R. 4310), which passed the House and was sent to the Senate in May.   That is the first legislative step in enabling the two sides to conference on a compromise version to send to the President.

Senators Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) and Bill Nelson (D-FL) had amendments that would have extended the FAA’s authority to indemnify commercial space launch companies against third-party claims for another two years and extended a waiver for NASA from the Iran, North Korea, Syria Nonproliferation Act (INKSNA) limitations on contracting with Russia for services related to the International Space Station.  The Hutchison amendment also would have directed NASA on how to allocate funds for the Space Launch System and Orion.   Neither made it to the Senate floor for debate and the two Senators subsequently introduced compromise language as S. 3661, which keeps open the option for additional legislative action before Congress adjourns later this month.   The House already passed a bill to extend the indemnification authority (H.R. 6586).

Senator Michael Bennet (D-CO) had an amendment to ease export controls for commercial satellites, but that also was not brought up for debate.  The House-passed version of the NDAA already has language on this topic, so a compromise version could be negotiated during conference.

Although those issues were not included, the final Senate version of the bill retained provisions included by the Senate Armed Services Committee related to space activities.  For example, Sec. 912 gives the Department of Defense (DOD) flexibility in making cooperative arrangements with commercial space launch companies and public-private partnerships pertaining to space transportation infrastructure.  The objectives of the section including maximizing private sector use of DOD space transportation infrastructure, reducing the costs of services provided by DOD at launch support and space recovery support facilities, and enabling “covered entities” — non-Federal entities organized under U.S. law that engage in commercial space activities — to invest in DOD’s space transportation infrastructure.

Another section requires DOD to develop schedules for major satellite acquisition programs that integrate the schedules for the satellite and its ground systems.   The final Senate version of the bill also keeps language authorizing an additional $125 million to keep both commercial satellite imagery companies, GeoEye and DigitalGlobe, in business.  The National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) made clear earlier this year that it plans to fund only one company.  GeoEye and DigitalGlobe consequently announced plans to merge, a decision that is currently under review by the Department of Justice’s (DOJ’s) Antitrust Division.  DOJ requested additional information from the companies in September.

As a group of experts demonstrated at a panel discussion in Washington, D.C. yesterday, there is no shortage of pressing space policy challenges facing the second Obama Administration. The problem is choosing just which ones to tackle first.

SpacePolicyOnline Founder and Editor Marcia Smith kicked off the panel, which was convened by the Secure World Foundation (SWF), by laying out a series of challenges in the civil national and international spheres, including the budget shortfall, the future of Landsat beyond the launch of the Landsat Data Continuity Mission in February 2013, as well as persisting uncertainty over NASA priorities. Yet, Smith emphasized that in order to be successful in addressing any of these, there is a need to improve on an underlying aspect of the relationship between key stakeholders: trust.

Not only features of what has been a turbulent relationship between the Executive Branch and Congress during the first Obama Administration, mistrust and unease permeate on a larger scale between the United States and its international partners.  The U.S. decision to pull out of the joint U.S.-European  robotic Mars mission called ExoMars is a perfect example, Smith explained. Even though Europe remains interested in cooperating with the United States – something which “amazes me,” she said – rebuilding U.S. credibility as a reliable partner will be key moving forward.

While export control reform was not the top priority in Patricia Cooper’s list of key issues facing the commercial space sector, the outcome of key regulatory issues seemed the focal point for this community. Cooper, president of the Satellite Industry Association, listed on-orbit safety, hosted payloads, export control reform (or ITAR) and spectrum management as the main challenges. At the root of several of these issues is how the U.S. military, which depends on commercial satellite telecommunications to carry out its missions, will interact with the private sector to resolve these issues.  For example, improving on-orbit safety through increased space situational awareness (SSA) has been a priority for the private sector, leading to the establishment of the Space Data Association (SDA). Yet the degree of acceptance of this initiative by the U.S. military – particularly Strategic Command – is still an open question.

For his part, Brian Weeden, SWF Technical Advisor, highlighted the importance of improving SSA and the challenges the U.S. military faces in doing so, as captured in his recent report: “Going Blind: Why America is on the verge of Losing its Situational Awareness in Space and What Can be done About it.” Weeden noted that while the U.S. Air Force has made progress increasing its SSA capabilities, such as through the now operational Space Based Space Surveillance satellite launched in 2010 – the processing of the data produced by these systems as they come online is still a critical “choke point.” As described in the report, Weeden said that the “material, cultural and bureaucratic shackles” of the U.S. Air Force prevent it from developing a solution to this problem by itself. Instead, the U.S. military should adopt a more open approach to developing standards and capabilities and grow its community of stakeholders.

Wrapping up the panel was Eligar Sadeh, president of Astroconsulting International who outlined the key points in a recent SWF-funded effort to advance strategic thinking with respect to space and which led to a book he edited entitled Space Strategy in the 21st Century.  Sadeh explained that a successful, comprehensive strategy could not only help fulfill policy, but also connect ways to means, two persisting issues prevalent in the space arena. He added that such a strategy can help better coordinate space activities as well as begin to address the issues identified by the panel.  In describing the findings of the experts contained in the book, Sadeh noted the requirements to advancing strategic thinking: top-level political will, the establishment of a process to think strategically, and the ready availability of trained and competent strategists.

Audience interaction with the panel proved that even more issues are of concern to the community, such as the status of efforts to establish an international space code of conduct, and the complex relationship with China. While the exercise may have frustrated someone’s interest to come away with a list of top five issues to watch in space, it instead confirmed what Smith said at the beginning of the panel: “we [the space community] will continue to be very busy in the next four years.”

Senator Bill Nelson (D-FL) and Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX), long-standing partners on most issues concerning NASA programs, have amendments pending to the FY2013 National Defense Authorization Act (S. 3254) with different solutions to NASA’s need for a waiver from the Iran-North Korea-Syria Nonproliferation Act (INKSNA).  The Senate plans to resume debate on the bill tomorrow.

The purpose of INKSNA is to incentivize Russia to stop providing nuclear, chemical or biological weapons technologies to Iran, North Korea and Syria.   It is major issue, but many wonder how NASA got in the middle of it.

When the law was first passed in 2000 as the Iran Nonproliferation Act (INA) there were allegations that Russia’s space agency, then headed by Yuri Koptev, was violating the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR).  The MTCR is an international agreement that seeks to stem the transfer of ballistic missile technology. Getting Russia to adhere to it was one of the reasons the United States invited Russia to join the ISS program in the first place.  When the INA was being marked up by the House Science Committee in July 1999, then-chairman Jim Sensenbrenner (R-WI) said:  “Earlier this year, there were publications of the fact that entities of the Russian Space Agency were violating the MTCR.  That’s why there is Section 6 in this bill.”

Section 6 prohibits the U.S. government from making “extraordinary payments” to Russia related to ISS after January 1, 1999 unless the President determines and certifies to Congress that Russia is not transferring weapons of mass destruction or missile systems to Iran (or Syria or North Korea as the Act was later amended).  The term extraordinary payments is defined in section 7 (1) of the law (50 U.S.C. 1701).

The White House has not been willing to make that certification.   That is a problem for NASA because it needs certain services from Russia in order for the ISS program to continue, for example crew transportation and “lifeboat” services.   Consequently, NASA has required waivers from the law in order to enter into contracts with Russia for those services.   Congress agreed to pass waivers in 2005 and 2008.  The 2008 waiver allows NASA to contract for services that will be provided through July 1, 2016. 

With the decision to keep the ISS operating through 2020, however, NASA will require those services beyond 2016 and therefore needs another waiver.  Although some of the commercial crew companies say they will be ready to transport astronauts to the ISS by 2015 or 2016, NASA is planning on 2017, so needs to contract with Russia for additional crew transportation services.    It also is not clear if any of the U.S. commercial companies will be able to provide lifeboat services.  To do so, the spacecraft would have to designed to be able to remain docked to the ISS for many months, like Russia’s Soyuz, so crews can evacuate in an emergency.

The Hutchison amendment (SA 3078) would simply extend the time period and allow NASA to contract for services that would be provided through December 31, 2020.  The Nelson amendment (SA 3267), by contrast, would change the definition of “extraordinary payments” by deleting subsection (7(1)(B)) that applies to contracting for services after January 1, 1999.  Under his amendment, the U.S. government would be prohibited only from paying Russia for any work that Russia had previously agreed to provide at its expense (the first part of the definition).

The Nelson approach would solve the problem permanently, but the ongoing geopolitical situations with Iran and Syria may make it difficult to win support.  NASA is anxious to obtain the waiver soon because it estimates that it takes about three years to negotiate contracts with Russia and it then takes about 24 months to build Soyuz spacecraft.

Separately, both the Hutchison and Nelson amendments would extend third party launch liability indemnification for commercial launch service companies for two more years.  The Hutchison amendment also has a section that would require NASA to fund the SLS/Orion program in FY2014 and FY2015 at the same proportional level of the Exploration budget as those programs receive in FY2013.   The Nelson amendment does not address that issue.

The number of amendments to S. 3254 is currently up to 366, but Senators and their staffs were expected to work through this weekend to determine how many of those really need to be brought to the floor for debate.   The Senate is expected to resume debate on S. 3254 at 2:00 pm ET Monday.  The House passed its version of the bill in May.   Once it passes the Senate, the two will have to reach agreement on a final version.

 

UPDATE 2:  The NRC moved the release time of its NASA Strategic Directions report on Dec. 5 from 11:00 to 11:30 am ET and added a telephone news conference with its chair, Al Carnesale.   This article has been updated accordingly.

UPDATE:  Adds the Golden Spike Company Debut press conference on Dec. 6.

The following events may be of interest in the coming week.   The House and Senate are in session for at least part of the week.

During the Week

This is quite a busy week.  Among the highlights are the following:  

• The American Geophysical Union (AGU) fall meeting takes place in San Francisco with a number of town hall meetings, public lectures and press conferences about discoveries from space science missions, including a public lecture today (Sunday) at noon PT (3:00 pm ET) and press conference on Monday (9:00 am PT; noon ET) about Mars Curiosity. Everyone wants to know what Curiosity did or did not find — not life, not organics, NASA’s now made that clear. 
• The Senate is expected to complete debate on the FY2013 National Defense Authorization Act — on which at least three important amendments affecting NASA and export control policy are pending.  Debate began last Wednesday and they are hoping to wrap things up on Monday, though that depends on what deals could be made over this weekend to dispose of the hundreds of pending amendments.  Senators Hutchison and Nelson each have amendments to extend launch liability indemnification and give NASA another waiver from the Iran-North Korea-Syria Nonproliferation Act (the two would deal with that issue differently).  The Hutchison amendment also would require NASA to allocate money to the SLS/Orion program in FY2014 and FY2015 in the same proportion of the Exploration budget as in FY2013.  The Bennet amendment would ease export control regulations for commercial satellites.
• On Monday, the Secure World Foundation will hold a panel discussion on space policy issues facing the Obama Administration in the second term.  (In the interest of full disclosure, I am one of the panelists.)
• On Tuesday and Wednesday, two reports will be released with recommendations on NASA’s future. 
  • On Tuesday at 11:30 am ET, the Space Foundation will release its report PIONEERING:  Sustaining U.S. Leadership in Space, in 253 Russell Senate Office Building (note the time change, the briefing starts at 11:30 instead of noon; doors open at 11:00).
  • On Wednesday at 11:30 am ET the National Research Council will publicly release the report of its study committee on NASA’s Strategic Direction. (In the interest of full disclosure, I am a member of this committee and am posting this notice with NRC permission).
• On Thursday, the 7th Eilene M. Galloway Symposium on Critical Issues in Space Law will be held at the Cosmos Club in Washington, DC.   This year’s topic is Regional and Global Space Organizations and Law, and the keynote speaker is NASA’s Associate Administrator for Human Exploration and Operations Bill Gerstenmaier.

And those are just some of the meetings.  The full list is below.  Note that the House Science, Space and Technology Committee’s hearing on NASA’s Strategic Direction that was scheduled for December 6 has been postponed because the House leadership decided late last week that the House will not be in session on Thursday.  A new date has not yet been announced.

Sunday, December 2

• Public Lecture on findings from the Mars Curiosity rover, San Francisco, CA, 12:00 pm PT (3:00 pm ET)

Monday, December 3

• American Geophysical Union (AGU) fall meeting formally begins at the Moscone Center, San Francisco, CA
  • Press conference on Mars Curiosity, 9:00 am PT (12:00 pm ET)
  • Press conference on Voyager, 12:30 pm PT (3:30 pm ET) 
• Secure World Foundation panel on Space Policy Challenges Facing the Second Obama Administration, 1779 Massachusetts Ave., NW, Washington, DC, 12:00-2:00 pm ET
• NASA ISS Advisory Committee, NASA Headquarters, Washington, DC, 1:00-2:00 pm ET

Tuesday, December 4

• AGU
  • Press conference on NASA’s Van Allen Belt Probes, 8:00 am PT (11:00 am ET)
  • Press conference on Mars Opportunity Rover, 10:30 am PT (1:30 pm ET)
  • NASA Town Hall Meeting on Science Highlights and Future Plans, Moscone Center, San Francisco, 12:30-1:30 pm PT (3:30-4:30 pm)
• Marshall Institute and TechAmerica panel discussion on Day Without Space:  What Would a Major Space Weather Event Mean for America?, 601 Pennsylvania Ave., NW (enter on the Indiana Avenue side of the building), Washington, DC, 9:00-10:30 am ET
• Space Foundation release of report PIONEERING:  Sustaining U.S. Leadership in Space, 253 Russell Senate Office Building, 11:30 am ET (doors open at 11:00 am, note that this is 30 minutes earlier than originally planned)

Wednesday, December 5

• Two NASA-Roscosmos press conferences on recently announced year-long International Space Station mission, Johnson Space Center, Houston, TX
  • Programmatic briefing, 8:00-9:00 am CT (9:00-10:00 am ET)
  • Briefing with crew members, 9:00-10:00 am CT (10:00-11:00 am ET)
• National Research Council (NRC) public release of report of Committee on NASA’s Strategic Direction, telephone press conference at 11:30 am ET (check the NRC’s website or that of its Space Studies Board for copies of the report)
• AGU
  • Press Conference on NASA’s Lunar Twins — GRAIL First Science Results, 9:00 am PT (12:00 pm ET)
  • Van Allen Lecture, featuring Dan Baker, Director, Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, 4:00-5:00 pm PT (7:00-8:00 pm ET)

Thursday, December 6

• Eilene M. Galloway Symposium on Critical Issues in Space Law, Cosmos Club, Washington, DC, 8:30 am – 4:30 pm ET
• Golden Spike Company Debut, National Press Club, Washington, DC, 2:00 pm ET
• AGU
  • NASA Town Hall on Earth Science Division, Moscone Center, San Francisco, 12:30-1:30 pm PT (3:30 – 4:30 pm ET)
  • NASA Town Hall on Operation IceBridge, Moscone Center, San Francisco, 12:30-1:30 pm PT (3:30-4:30 pm ET)
  • NASA Town Hall on Heliophysics, Moscone Center, San Francisco, 12:30-1:30 pm PT (3:30-4:30 pm ET)

Friday, December 7

• 42nd Space Congress, Cocoa, FL, 8:00 am – 5:00 pm ET
• US-Japan-Asia Space Security Relations, East-West Center, 1819 L Street, NW, Washington, DC, 10:30 am – 12:00 pm ET