Category: Civil

NASA Downplays Threat of Asteroid 2011 AG5 Impact in 2040

NASA Downplays Threat of Asteroid 2011 AG5 Impact in 2040

By Marcia Smith | Posted: June 15, 2012 12:00 am ET | Last Updated: June 15, 2012 4:30 pm ET

NASA released a workshop report today that downplays the risk to Earth of Asteroid 2011 AG5, saying that it “will fly safely past and not impact Earth in 2040.”   Asteroid 2011 AG5 is one of a subset of Near Earth Objects (NEOs) classified as Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs).

The agency acknowledges, however, that more observations are needed in the years ahead to be doubly sure that analysis is correct.  A key event will occur — or not — in February 2023 when the asteroid is 1.1 million miles from Earth.   If it passes through a very small “keyhole” in space at that time, Earth’s gravity could be just enough to modify its trajectory such that an impact with Earth might be possible on February 5, 2040. 

The keyhole is 227 miles wide.   Lindley Johnson, program executive for NASA’s Near Earth Object (NEO) observation program, said: “Given our current understanding of this asteroid’s orbit, there is only a very remote chance of this keyhole passage even occurring.”

Today’s press release provides a link to a JPL website where four related documents are posted, including a “consensus summary” of the May 29, 2012 workshop.   The links to the four documents are a little hard to find so are provided here:

The one page consensus summary of the workshop does not list the participants.  Shown as bullet-points, it states that there is only a 0.2 percent chance of the asteroid passing through the keyhole in 2023, and also only a 0.2 percent change of it impacting Earth in 2040.

The 140-meter diameter asteroid was discovered in January 2011 and is currently located in the daytime sky and cannot be observed with Earth-based telescopes.  Observations can be made in the fall of 2013 and again in 2015-2020.  Data from those observations will allow scientists to better predict its path.

Should the unlikely occur and it turns out the asteroid is on a collision course with Earth after all, the workshop concluded that “numerous viable deflection mission options are available.”   For example, “an impactor spacecraft could be an effective means.”  If that approach is chosen, “[i]t is desirable to also have a rendezvous spacecraft on station at the asteroid at least a few months” in advance and it could be “equipped with a gravity tractor” as a backup.

Last Updated: Jun 15, 2012 4:30 pm ET
NuSTAR X-Ray Telescope Launched — Update 3

NuSTAR X-Ray Telescope Launched — Update 3

By Marcia Smith | Posted: June 13, 2012 12:00 am ET | Last Updated: June 13, 2012 12:11 pm ET

UPDATE 3:  Launch went as planned.

UPDATE 2:  Everything is proceeding nominally.  Launch still scheduled for 12:00 noon EDT.  Follow us on Twitter @SpcPlcyOnline.

UPDATE:   Live audio and video launch coverage is now available at http://www.ustream.tv/nasajpl2 as the aircraft is about to take off from Kwajalein.

ORIGINAL STORY: NASA’s Nuclear Spectroscopic Telescope Array (NuSTAR) is currently scheduled for launch at 12:00 pm Eastern Daylight Time (EDT) today.  The launch was delayed for about 30 minutes because of a receiver issue that was quickly resolved.

A launch blog is available at the NuStar website.  Various people/organizations are tweeting it, including @nasakennedy, @nasajpl, and @NASANuSTAR.   NuSTAR will be launched by a Pegasus rocket that is dropped from an L-1011 aircraft.  The aircraft is scheduled to depart Kwajalein Atoll in the Pacific Ocean at 11:00 am EDT and will drop the Pegasus about an hour later.  Weather is not expected to be a factor today. 

NuSTAR is an x-ray telescope that will study celestial phenomena, including x-ray sources at the event horizons of black holes.   One cannot see into a black hole, but the material being sucked into the black hole can be observed as it gets very close to that threshold.  

Fiona Harrison of CalTech is the principal investigator for the mission.   She explained at a press conference on Tuesday that NuSTAR can observe black holes at x-ray energies higher than those studied by NASA’s Chandra x-ray observatory, for example.  NuSTAR will be able to study “regions that are hotter, where particles are accelerated close to the speed of light.”

Harrison said that the lifecycle cost of the NuSTAR mission is $165-170 million including the spacecraft, launch, and two years of science operations.  She talked about the advantage of using the Orbital Sciences Corp.’s Pegasus launch system, which is dropped from an aircraft that can depart from many locations around the world.   NuSTAR is headed for an equatorial orbit.  By using the Pegasus system, NuSTAR could depart from Kwajalein Atoll and be fairly close to the equator at the launch point.  Kwajalein is a U.S. missile test site in the Marshall Islands and is just 8 degrees north of the equator.   The L-1011 will fly 117 miles south before releasing the Pegasus rocket at an altitude of 39,000 feet.

Last Updated: Jun 13, 2012 12:11 pm ET
China Readies to Launch Space Station Crew-update

China Readies to Launch Space Station Crew-update

By Marcia Smith | Posted: June 10, 2012 12:00 am ET | Last Updated: June 10, 2012 5:43 pm ET

UPDATE:  Dragon-in-Space, a website devoted to China’s space program that it says is not affiliated with any government agencies or private organizations, reports that the Shenzhou 9 launch will take place at 10:41 GMT on June 16 and it will carry a female taikonaut. Wang Ya-ping. Bob Christy has updated his website to also indicate that June 16 is the first likely launch date, with 10:39 GMT as the launch time.  Eastern Daylight Time (EDT) is four hours behind GMT, so that would make it 6:41 am or 6:39 am EDT.  These are not official Chinese government launch dates or times, however.

ORIGINAL STORY: China still has not put an official date on it, but Xinhua reported yesterday that the first Chinese space station crew will be launched in “mid-June” as the Shenzhou-9 spacecraft and its rocket were moved to the launch pad.

China launched its first space station, Tiangong-1 (Heavenly Palace), last September.  An automated spacecraft, Shenzhou 8, tested rendezvous and docking operations with it twice in November.   China said at the time it planned to launch two more missions to Tiangong-1 and at least one would involve a crew and that crew likely would include China’s first female taikonaut.

China indicated months ago that the launch would be this summer, but has not been specific about the date.  Bob Christy, an amatuer space observer in the United Kingdom, initially calculated June 17 as a likely launch date based on Tiangong-1’s orbital maneuvers.  He has refined his analysis and now assesses that the launch could take place on alternate days beginning June 14.  His website, zarya.info, lists the likely launch times on June 14, 16, 18, 20, 22, and 24.

The Shenzhou-9 spacecraft and its Long March 2F rocket were moved to the launch platform at the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center yesterday according to Xinhua.  China still did not commit to launching a woman on the mission, insisting that the decision on crew members will not be made until closer to launch.

One of the three crew members apparently will not enter the space station, but remain in Shenzhou 9.   Xinhua quoted a spokesman as having said in February that “[o]ne of the three Shenzhou-9 crew members will not board the Tiangong-1 space module lab, but will remain inside the spacecraft as a precautionary measure in case of an emergency.”

Tiangong-1 is quite modest (8.5 metric tons) compared to the International Space Station (about 400 metric tons), but nevertheless occupying a space station will be a significant achievement for China if all goes well.   As first space stations go, Tiangong-1 is just less than half the mass of the world’s first space station, the Soviet Union’s Salyut 1.  Launched in 1971, it had a mass of about 18.6 metric tons.  The first U.S. space station, Skylab, launched in 1973, had a mass of about 77 metric tons.

Last Updated: Jun 10, 2012 5:43 pm ET
Events of Interest: Week of June 11-15, 2012

Events of Interest: Week of June 11-15, 2012

By Marcia Smith | Posted: June 10, 2012 12:00 am ET | Last Updated: June 10, 2012 4:17 pm ET

The following events may be of interest in the coming week.   The Senate is in session; the House is in recess.

Monday, June 11

Tuesday, June 12

Tuesday-Thursday, June 12-14

Wednesday, June 13

 

Last Updated: Jun 10, 2012 4:17 pm ET
NASA Sticks With Decision to Cancel GEMS

NASA Sticks With Decision to Cancel GEMS

By Marcia Smith | Posted: June 7, 2012 12:00 am ET | Last Updated: June 7, 2012 1:20 pm ET

NASA astrophysics division director Paul Hertz said today that NASA will stick by its decision to terminate the Gravity and Extreme Magnetism Small (GEMS) Explorer mission despite an appeal from the GEMS team to reconsider.

Hertz spoke at a media teleconference today to answer questions about the GEMS decision.   He had told the National Research Council’s Committee on Astronomy and Astrophysics on Monday that GEMS did not pass its confirmation review to move from the formulation phase into the implementation phase.   NASA missions must pass through a series of “gates” — called Key Decision Points or KDPs — as they progress from concept through launch.  A project can be stopped or required to make changes at those KDPs.  

Confirmation review is KDP-C.  Hertz explained that an independent cost assessment of GEMS as part of the KDP-C process revealed that the mission would cost 20-30 percent more, at a 50 percent confidence level, than the $119 million cap (excluding launch). 

A 50 percent confidence level means that there is a 50-50 chance that the project could cost either more or less than the estimate, but space projects rarely cost less.

Costs increased, he said, because the technology took longer than expected to develop, pushing out the launch date.  NASA then made the “difficult decision” to terminate the mission.  GEMS is an x-ray telescope in the Small Explorer (SMEX) series whose purpose was to study the polarization of x-rays in the vicinity of black holes and neutron stars.   Hertz said that the GEMS team submitted additional data as part of its appeal process earlier this week, but after reviewing it, NASA “affirmed the decision to non-confirm them.” 

Strictly speaking GEMS was not “cancelled” since it had not entered its implementation phase.  It was “not confirmed” to proceed, but the result is the same.

NASA is about to launch another x-ray telescope in the SMEX series — the Nuclear Spectroscopic Telescope Array (NuSTAR).  While NuSTAR will not study polarized x-rays from these celestial sources, it will be able to accomplish related science objectives Hertz said.

X-rays do not penetrate Earth’s atmosphere, so the only way to study x-ray emissions in the universe is using space-based instruments.   NASA launched the Chandra x-ray telescope in 1999 as one of NASA’s four “great observatories.”  The other three are the Hubble Space Telescope (visible and near-infrared), Spitzer Space Telescope (infrared), and Compton Gamma Ray Observatory (deorbited in 2000 after 9 years of observations).   Chandra was just approved for additional years of operations — through 2016 — as part of NASA’s Senior Review process.

NASA is working with the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) on the Astro-H mission, an X-ray telescope scheduled for launch by Japan next year.   However, there are no plans for a large observatory-class x-ray mission.  NASA’s next observatory-class mission is the James Webb Space Telescope that will study the universe in the infrared wavelengths.  The National Research Council’s 2010 Decadal Survey for astronomy and astrophysics chose another infrared mission — the Wide-Field InfraRed Survey Telescope (WFIRST) — as the next priority for a large space-based mission, beating out the International X-ray Observatory (IXO) and other contenders.  IXO was ranked fourth out of four high priority large missions in the Decadal Survey because of technical, cost and programmatic uncertainties.

Hertz said that NASA will continue to offer the smaller Explorer-class opportunities for the various types of space-based astrophysics research, including x-ray astronomy, through the coming decade.   The money that would have been spent on GEMS, in fact, will be reallocated to future Explorer-class astrophysics missions.

Last Updated: Jun 07, 2012 1:20 pm ET
NASA to Hold Media Telecon Today to Discuss GEMS Cancellation

NASA to Hold Media Telecon Today to Discuss GEMS Cancellation

By Marcia Smith | Posted: June 7, 2012 12:00 am ET | Last Updated: June 7, 2012 10:15 am ET

NASA will hold a media teleconference at noon today, June 7, to discuss cancellation of the Gravity and Extreme Magnetism Small (GEMS) Explorer mission.  It will be streamed at http://www.nasa.gov/newsaudio.

NASA told the National Research Council’s Committee on Astronomy and Astrophysics on Monday that the GEMS mission was “not confirmed” because of significant cost growth in the early phases of mission formulation.   NASA programs must pass through certain “gates” before missions are approved to continue and GEMS did not get through one of those gates. 

Space News reported yesterday that the GEMS team appealed the decision and was an expecting an answer imminently.  GEMS is an x-ray telescope mission in the Small Explorer (SMEX) series designed to measure the polarization of x-rays in the vicinity of black holes and neutron stars.  Managed by NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, the spacecraft was being built by Orbital Sciences Corporation with a planned launch date in November 2014.

Paul Hertz, director of NASA’s astrophysics division, will discuss the reasons for the GEMS cancellation at the media teleconference today.

Last Updated: Jun 07, 2012 10:15 am ET
House Authorizing Committee Chairman Praises Commercial Crew Compromise

House Authorizing Committee Chairman Praises Commercial Crew Compromise

By Marcia Smith | Posted: June 6, 2012 12:00 am ET | Last Updated: June 6, 2012 11:53 pm ET

The deal struck between Rep. Frank Wolf (R-VA) and NASA over how to conduct future phases of the commercial crew program won another thumbs up today.   Wolf’s counterpart on the House committee that authorizes NASA’s activities, Rep. Ralph Hall (R-TX), praised the agreement.

Hall said in a press release that the compromise “answers many lingering concerns voiced by Members of this Committee … on uncertainties plaguing the program’s cost, and its ability to mandate crew safety design features.”

Hall chairs the House Science, Space and Technology Committee, an authorization committee that provides policy guidance and recommends funding levels.   Wolf chairs the House Appropriations Commerce-Justice-Science (CJS) subcommittee that actually provides money (authorization committees make only recommendations for funding levels).  Wolf’s office released an exchange of letters yesterday where he and NASA Administrator Charlie Bolden laid out the key elements of their agreement.

Earlier today, Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison, the top Republican on both the Senate authorization committee and Senate Appropriations CJS subcommittee also endorsed the deal.

No public statements by House or Senate Democrats reacting to the agreement appear to have been made yet.  Both Republicans and Democrats in Congress have been highly critical of the commercial crew program since it became a centerpiece of the Obama Administration’s human spaceflight policy in 2010.

 

Last Updated: Jun 06, 2012 11:53 pm ET
Influential Senator Signs On to Commercial Crew Downselect Compromise

Influential Senator Signs On to Commercial Crew Downselect Compromise

By Marcia Smith | Posted: June 6, 2012 12:00 am ET | Last Updated: June 6, 2012 9:53 am ET

Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX), an influential Senator on NASA issues, expressed her support for the agreement reached between Rep. Frank Wolf (R-VA) and NASA on how many companies should be funded in the next phase of NASA’s commercial crew program.

In a press release, Hutchison said she applauded the agreement announced yesterday.    Hutchison has a particularly influential role in NASA issues in the Senate because she serves in key positions both on NASA’s authorizing and appropriating committees.  She is the top Republican on the Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee that authorizes NASA’s activities, and the top Republican on the Senate Appropriations Commerce-Justice-Science (CJS) subcommittee that funds NASA.

At the CJS subcommittee markup of NASA’s FY2013 funding bill (S. 2323), Hutchison spoke strongly about the need to limit the number of companies that get funded in the next phase to two instead of four.   The chair of the subcommittee, Senator Barbara Mikulski (D-MD), stressed that was Hutchison’s personal view and not the subcommittee’s position.  The report on the bill is silent on the number of companies, but urges NASA not to obligate itself to more companies than it can reasonably expect to fund in the current budget environment.

Referring to her position that there should be only two awardees, Hutchison said in the press release that the Wolf-NASA agreement “follows that prescription and is welcome news,”

Last Updated: Jun 06, 2012 9:53 am ET
Key House Appropriator and NASA Agree on Commercial Crew Downselect

Key House Appropriator and NASA Agree on Commercial Crew Downselect

By Marcia Smith | Posted: June 5, 2012 12:00 am ET | Last Updated: June 5, 2012 7:01 pm ET

Rep. Frank Wolf (R-VA), who chairs the House appropriations subcommittee that funds NASA, and NASA Administrator Charlie Bolden, have agreed to limit the number of winners of commercial crew contracts to 2.5 instead of four.  An exchange of letters revealing the agreement was released by Wolf’s office today.

The first letter, from Wolf to Bolden on May 31, laid out the chairman’s understanding of NASA’s intentions for the Commercial Crew Program (CCP) based on recent discussions between his office and the agency.  Bolden’s reply yesterday affirmed that understanding.   

Among the agreed upon points is that NASA plans to select no more than 2.5 program partners (two full awards and one partial award) in the next phase of the CCP.  That phase is called Commercial Crew Integrated Capability (CCiCAP) and follows the two initial CCDEV rounds of awards made in 2010 and 2011.  In this third phase, companies must bid to provide a complete — “integrated” — system to take crews to and from the International Space Station (ISS) instead of just a spacecraft or just a launch vehicle, for example.

The number of companies to be funded is one of the sticking points between Congress and the Obama Administration on the CCP.  Although it is called a “commercial” program, it involves significant taxpayer investment.  NASA plans to spend $4.8 billion between FY2011 and FY2017 on commercial crew development.  The companies also are expected to invest their own capital, however, which makes this different from previous NASA human spaceflight programs.

NASA wants to ensure there is sufficient competition to yield at least two companies that will be able to provide commercial crew services.  It does not want to narrow the field (“down-select”) too quickly in this phase of the program.  Congress, however, wants to limit the amount of funds it must provide to support those companies.  NASA funded four companies in the second CCDEV round, but in the FY2013 Commerce-Justice-Science appropriations bill crafted by Wolf’s subcommittee and passed by the House on May 10 (H.R. 5326), the House told NASA to choose only one company, or at most one “leader” and one “follower.”   The Senate Appropriations Committee’s version of the bill (S. 2323) only cautions NASA not to take on obligations to more companies that can be “practically supported” in the current budget environment.

Another point of contention is how NASA is contracting with these companies.  So far, NASA has used Space Act Agreements (SAAs) instead of traditional contracts based on Federal Acquisition Regulations (FAR).  NASA planned to use FAR-based contracts for CCiCAP, but reversed course last December because it concluded that funding uncertainties made FAR-based fixed price contracts unrealistic.   NASA has little insight into what the companies are doing under SAAs.  It simply pays the companies once they meet agreed-upon milestones.   Under FAR-based contracts, NASA can set requirements and have insight and oversight of how the companies meet those requirements.  Congress has repeatedly expressed concern that commercial companies may not pay as close attention to astronaut safety as would NASA and want the agency to be able to keep tabs on what the companies are doing, hence the need for FAR-based contracts.

In the exchange of letters, NASA agrees that it is working on a strategy to use FAR-based contracting in the future and “anticipates having this strategy substantively complete” before making the CCiCAP awards and “will use FAR-based contracts” for certifying commercial crew capabilities and procuring crew transportation services.

Bolden’s letter said that the program needed more funding than the $500 million the House provided for FY2013.   NASA’s request was $830 million.  The Senate Appropriations Committee recommended $525 million (the Senate has not acted on the bill yet).  In a press release, Wolf said he agreed that funding should be “at or near” the Senate level.  He said he had reached this understanding with NASA “to prevent any disruption in the development of crew vehicles” to take astronauts to and from the ISS.

Last Updated: Jun 05, 2012 7:01 pm ET
SWF: Mis-communicating about Asteroid Threat is a Threat Itself

SWF: Mis-communicating about Asteroid Threat is a Threat Itself

By Marcia Smith | Posted: June 5, 2012 12:00 am ET | Last Updated: June 6, 2012 9:20 am ET

The Secure World Foundation (SWF) released a report yesterday warning that the dangers of mis-communicating about the threat from an asteroid can be as much a threat as the asteroid itself.

SWF and the Association of Space Explorers (ASE) held a workshop in November 2011 about the need to communicate effectively with the public about risks posed by asteroids.  The workshop was held to support the United Nations Committee on Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOUS) Action Team-14 (AT-14) that focuses on Near Earth Objects (NEOs).  AT-14 is deliberating over the potential composition of an Information, Analysis and Warning Network (IAWN) that includes developing international procedures to respond to a NEO threat according to the workshop report.

SWF Executive Director Michael Simpson said in a press statement that while attention is usually focused on the damage an asteroid impact with Earth could cause, this report focuses “on how to prevent the even greater damage we could cause ourselves by mis-communicating or failing to work together on a common response to the threat.”  Ray Williamson, SWF Senior Advisor and former Executive Director, said the report “emphasizes how important clear, effective, and accurate assessments” of the threat would be “to the ultimate goal of protecting human life and property.”

The report issued a “call to action” with the following elements:

  • The development of an effective NEO communication plan;
  • A coordinated program of education targeting general public, policy makers, students and media;
  • Skilled communicators supported by risk analysts, planners, scientists, psychologists, emergency management experts and other functional experts; and
  • Access to research data and real-time NEO information.

 

 

Last Updated: Jun 06, 2012 9:20 am ET

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