On this tenth day of the partial government shutdown, the possibility that the government may be forced to default on its debt next week has taken center stage instead.   House Republicans are proposing a temporary agreement to raise the debt limit.  It would not end the government shutdown and would last for only 6 weeks.  Early indications are that as long as the bill avoids partisan policy issues, the President likely would sign it even though it would do nothing to reopen the government.

President Obama met with all House Democrats yesterday and is meeting with House Republicans today, though Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) declined the President’s request to meet with all House Republicans and instead only 18 will participate in this afternoon’s meeting.

This morning, the House Republican Conference agreed to a new proposal from House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-WI) to raise the debt limit until November 22.   A House vote could occur this afternoon, but not until after the meeting with the President.  Boehner said that the President’s reaction to this proposal will determine what happens next.  The President has been insisting that House Republicans raise the debt limit and reopen government before he will negotiate on issues such as entitlement reform, tax reform, future government spending, and changes to the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare).

“It is our hope that the president will look at this as an opportunity and a good-faith effort on our part to move halfway, halfway to what he’s demanded in order to have these conversations begin,” Boehner said after the House Republican Conference meeting this morning.

The Associated Press quotes White House spokesman Jay Carney as saying early this afternoon that the President “would likely sign” a bill that only increases the debt limit temporarily as long as it does not include “partisan strings,” and cautioning that the White House has not yet seen the House Republican proposal.  The White House apparently is sticking to its guns that it will not negotiate on other issues until the government is reopened, but will be somewhat more flexible in order to avoid a default.

Meanwhile, Senate Democrats are intent on passing a long-term extension to the debt limit.   They want to raise the debt limit by $1 trillion through December 2014, past the mid-term congressional elections that will take place next year.  A vote on that bill is scheduled for Saturday, but whether there are sufficient votes for it to pass is uncertain.  That bill also would not reopen the government.

The current debt limit is $16.7 trillion, which Treasury Department officials say will be reached next week — around October 17.  Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew testified to the Senate Finance Committee this morning listing the “potentially catastrophic impacts” of failing to increase the debt limit, which include “credit market disruptions, a significant loss in the value of the dollar, markedly elevated U.S. interest rates, negative spillover effects to the global economy, and real risk of a financial crisis and recession that could echo the events of 2008 or worse.”

The debt limit is the amount of money the government can borrow to pay bills it already owes.  It does not allow for additional spending.  Spending is permitted through appropriations bills and other laws that provide benefits (often called entitlements) such as Social Security and Medicare.  Republicans and Democrats have been at odds for years over how to reduce the deficit (the difference between how much money the government brings in versus how much it spends).  Republicans want to reduce it only by cutting spending, while Democrats wants a combination of spending cuts and revenue (tax) increases.  The deficit debate is about future spending, however.  The debt limit debate is about paying the bills for laws that Congresses passed and presidents signed in the past.

 

 

Another day, another lack of progress in solving the impasse over the FY2014 budget.   There was some good news, as most DOD civilians got to go back to work today and industry furloughs at two companies consequently were reduced, but on the other hand, almost 60 percent of employees at the Aerospace Corporation are being sent home.

Lockheed Martin still is furloughing 2,400 workers, but that is fewer than the 3,000 announced last week. The company said 2,100 of the 2,400 work on civilian agency programs and the rest on DOD programs; they are in 27 states, but mostly in the Washington, D.C. area.

The reduction in Lockheed Martin furloughs was possible because of DOD’s broad interpretation of a week-old law that allowed most DOD civilian workers to return to work today.  Similarly, United Technologies cancelled a furlough of thousands of workers it announced last week.  Those employees were going to be furloughed because Defense Contract Management Agency inspectors were furloughed and unable to inspect manufacturing processes as required.  Under the new law, however, the inspectors have been recalled so manufacturing can resume.

The news was not so good for the Aerospace Corporation, though.  A Federally Funded Research and Development Center (FFRDC) that assures mission success for Air Force space programs (e.g., launches), Aerospace started a partial work shutdown on October 3, with 2,000 of its 3,500 workers sent home.  Only those working on “excepted mission critical tasks” may continue working.  Aerospace’s President and CEO Wanda Austin issued a statement today reassuring employees that “corporate senior leadership is fully engaged with our customers to minimize the adverse impacts” from the shutdown and ready to “immediately take action to bring people back to work as soon as we are permitted to do so.”

Other aerospace companies do not appear to have issued press releases about the status of their workers, but on Friday Aerospace Industries Association (AIA) President Marion Blakey warned about the impact of an extended shutdown on the aerospace industry, calling the shutdown “a tragic mistake.”

House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH), Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) and President Obama continued their verbal sparring matches today.   Reid and Obama are challenging Boehner to bring a “clean” Continuing Resolution (CR) — one that is devoid of political issues and simply funds the government — to the floor of the House for a vote.  Boehner said yesterday there are an insufficient votes to pass such a bill, but Boehner and Obama insist there are.   Obama said today that Boehner should “prove” whether he’s right or not by permitting the bill to come to a vote.  At the moment, there are 232 Republicans and 200 Democrats in the House (with three vacancies).   If all Democrats voted yes, 17 Republicans would also have to vote yes in order for the bill to pass.  The President and Reid believe that at least that many Republicans would, in fact, vote yes.

Boehner also said yesterday that he will not bring a clean bill to the floor to raise the debt limit.  That seems to contradict a statement he made last week asserting that he would not let the nation default on its debt.  The Treasury Department says the nation will exhaust its ability to pay its bills about October 17.   As many point out, raising the debt limit simply allows the government to pay the bills it already has incurred; it does not allow for any additional spending.  However, some Republicans having been seeking Democratic concessions on future spending in return for their votes to raise the debt limit and it now appears that others may be trying to tie the debt limit issue to the debate over the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) as well. 

One can only hope that more productive discussions among the parties are taking place behind the scenes than in front of the television cameras.

UPDATE, October 7, 2013:  The NRC’s Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board meeting on Oct. 10-11 has been added, along with a note about the Hosted Payload Summit, which apparently is on track.

ORIGINAL STORY, October 6.  The following events may be of interest in the week ahead, though with the government shutdown, it’s really unclear as to which of these will actually take place.   The House and Senate will be in session hopefully trying to find a solution to the impasse.

During the Week

There is no sign of compromise at the moment, so how long the government shutdown will continue is anyone’s guess.  The House and Senate will be in session this week as they were last week, but no one seems to be giving ground so far.

The following list of events of interest, therefore, is tentative.   The government-sponsored meetings of advisory committees surely will be cancelled if the shutdown continues, but since their websites are down, there is no way to confirm that.  Meetings and conferences sponsored by non-government organizations seem to be proceeding with revised agendas that work around the lack of government speakers. 

The American Astronautical Society has done an impressive job of substituting non-government speakers for its Von Braun Symposium in Huntsville, for example, and it will webcast the first morning (Tuesday, October 8) of the conference.  This week’s American Astronomical Society’s Division on Planetary Science (DPS) meeting in Denver also is on track, although “agency night” on Tuesday is likely to be affected if the shutdown continues.   The website for the Hosted Payload Summit in Washington does not provide any information about its status; the agenda has a mix of government and private sector speakers.

Sunday-Friday, October 6-11

• American Astronomical Society Division on Planetary Sciences (DPS), Denver, CO  TAKING PLACE with modified agenda

Monday-Thursday, October 7-10

• American Astronautical Society Von Braun Symposium, Huntsville, AL  WILL TAKE PLACE with modified agenda
  • October 7 is an evening reception; October 10 is a post-conference tour
  • October 8-9 are conference sessions; the morning of October 8 will be webcast

Tuesday-Wednesday, October 8-9

• NASA Applied Sciences Advisory Committee, Washington, DC  ALMOST CERTAIN TO BE CANCELLED IF SHUTDOWN CONTINUES

Wednesday, October 9

• Hosted Payload Summit, Grand Hyatt Washington, Washington, DC, 7:30 am – 5:00 pm ET  CONFERENCE ORGANIZER CONFIRMS THIS WILL TAKE PLACE

Wednesday-Thursday, October 9-10

• FAA COMSTAC, Washington, DC ALMOST CERTAIN TO BE CANCELLED IF SHUTDOWN CONTINUES

Thursday-Friday, October 10-11

• NRC’s Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board (ASEB), NRC Keck Center, 500 Fifth St., N.W., Washington, DC  WILL TAKE PLACE WITH MODIFIED AGENDA

Friday, October 11

• NASA Aerospace Safety Adv Panel (ASAP), Johnson Space Center, Houston, TX, 10:00-11:00 am Central Time (11:00 am – 12:00 pm Eastern)  ALMOST CERTAIN TO BE CANCELLED IF SHUTDOWN CONTINUES

 

 

 

While there was no progress today in resolving the issues that led to the government shutdown, federal employees and defense contractors got a little bit of good news. 

A large portion of civilian DOD employees are being called back to work on Monday and some defense contractors may also be able to be paid.  Separately,  the House passed a bill to ensure that furloughed federal employees will eventually be paid.

The House and Senate both were in session today and both have now gone home until Monday.  The House continued to work on several narrowly focused bills to fund specific federal activities.  Senate Democrats and President Obama have rejected that tactic overall, insisting that the entire government must be allowed to return to work.  

However, on the eve of the shutdown last Monday, all parties agreed to a bill through which military servicemembers will be paid during the shutdown rather than having to wait until the situation is resolved.   That law, the Pay Our Military Act, included other language and today Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel announced that DOD lawyers have interpreted it broadly to allow Hagel to call back to work a large portion of the 350,000-400,000 civilian DOD employees who were furloughed.  The law also allows the Secretary of Defense to pay contractors providing support to members of the Armed Services in active service.

Hagel is recalling civilian workers under a provision of the law that says civilian personnel “whom the Secretary … determines are providing support to members of the Armed Forces” may be paid.  Some news sources are reporting that he is recalling everyone, but his memo does not say that.  Instead Hagel writes that “I fervently hope that the time will be short until I can recall all employees” of DOD.   He also points out that the law allows personnel to be paid, but does not provide funds to purchase equipment or supplies, for example, so if the shutdown continues for an extended period, the time may come when “workers are unable to do their work [and] I will be forced to send them home again.” 

While many DOD civilian employees are being called back to work, there are another 400,000-500,000 furloughed federal employees who are not and have no guarantee of ever being paid.  However, today the House passed the Federal Employee Retroactive Pay Fairness Act by a vote of 407-0 (with 25 members not voting) that says furloughed feds will be paid — eventually.  They will have to wait until the government resumes operations, but if the bill is agreed by the Senate and the President, they can at least rest a little easier that the money will be there at some point.  The Senate adjourned for the day without taking up the bill, but the White House praised it in a Statement of Administration Policy.

As if a government shutdown and looming debt crisis weren’t enough, Washington had a dose of a very different kind of high drama today as a woman took Secret Service and Capitol Hill police on a high speed chase from the White House to Capitol Hill and ultimately was killed by police officers.

The prospects for the House and the Senate reaching any kind of resolution today were slim to begin with, but the mid-afternoon incident that suspended congressional proceedings as the Capitol was placed on lockdown after shots were fired in two locations on the Capitol grounds, contributed to the tension pervading Washington.   As of this hour, authorities have identified the 34-year-old woman from Connecticut who allegedly first tried to enter the White House grounds and then led Secret Service agents on a high speed chase across town to Capitol Hill, but do not know her motive.

Congress resumed operations after the lockdown was lifted and business returned to the current normal of gridlock.  No substantive progress was made on getting the government back to work — many are pointing out the Secret Service and Capitol police officers responding to today’s crisis are all working while not being paid — or dealing with the debt limit.

A couple of interesting developments did occur, however.

• House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) reportedly said that he would not permit the government to default.  At least as important as keeping the government operating is the issue of the debt limit, which Treasury officials expect to reach around October 17.  The fear of a government default worries Wall Street, among others, and Boehner’s statement offers hope that he is willing to bring to the House floor a bill to either suspend or raise the debt limit.   If all Democrats vote for it, only a small percentage of Republican votes are needed for it to pass.  While Boehner prefers to bring bills to the floor only if he knows that a majority of his Republican Caucus will vote yes — the so-called “Hastert rule” after former Speaker Dennis Hastert who reputedly initiated it, though he disavowed it today — he has done so in rare instances.   As a note of caution, however, Boehner also had indicated that he did not want a government shutdown, but in the final analysis, sided with Tea Party Republicans, which led that to result.
• Grover Norquist, who created the pledge that most Republicans have signed that they will never raise taxes and who is dedicated to reducing government spending, publicly criticized Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX), who is at the center of the government shutdown.  Cruz’s determination to link government funding with delaying or defunding the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) is why agreement has not been reached to fund the government for a few weeks while debate continues on political issues.  Cruz has been criticized by many fellow Republicans for his tactics, but adding Norquist to the list may give some Republicans relief that if they break with the current Republican stance, they may not be endangering their chances for reelection.  Norquist told Ezra Klein of the Washington Post that Cruz “pushed House Republicans into traffic and wandered away.”

The challenge ahead, however, was captured by a quote from Tea Party Republican Rep. Martin Stutzman (R-IN), who told The Washington Examiner “We’re not going to be disrespected. We have to get something out of this [shutdown].  And I don’t know what that even is.”

No signs of compromise emerged today in the showdown over FY2014 government funding.  The government remains in partial shutdown status, with only the military and excepted activities continuing.  A meeting at the White House between the President and congressional leaders in late afternoon was unproductive.

Republicans, especially in the House, insist that funding the government be tied to a delay in implementing the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare), which actually went into effect yesterday — the government shutdown notwithstanding.

Democrats continue to insist that Congress pass a “clean” Continuing Resolution (CR) devoid of political issues that only funds the government.  Senate Democrats have been seeking a CR that lasts through November 15, so the debate is over just 6 weeks worth of funding.

Another showdown is imminent over raising the debt limit, which is expected to reach its $16.7 trillion cap around October 17.   Some Democrats now want to link a CR for FY2014 with raising or suspending the debt limit, dealing with both issues simultaneously.

Meanwhile, House Republicans renewed an approach that failed yesterday, bringing narrowly written bills that would fund specific government activities to the floor of the House for a vote.   The three bills introduced yesterday — funding the Smithsonian and other government museums and National Parks, funding the District of Columbia (DC), and funding the Department of Veterans Affairs — were brought up under an expedited procedure called suspension of the rules, which requires a two-thirds majority. None passed. 

They were brought up again today along with two more under regular procedures where only a majority vote is required.  The two new bills would fund the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and pay members of the National Guard and reserves during the shutdown.  This time, three of the bills passed — to fund NIH, DC, and the museums and National Parks.   What their fate will be in the Senate is unclear. The White House issued a Statement of Administration policy today saying the President would veto such bills as they are “not a serious or responsible way” to run the government.

President Obama met with the Republican and Democratic leaders of the House and Senate for 90 minutes at the White House late this afternoon, but no progress was made.

The situation really is in the hands of the American people.   If they complain loudly enough, their elected leaders are likely to respond, but although there are polls indicating that most Americans object to tying government funding to the political goal of delaying or defunding Obamacare, there was no march on Washington today demanding change.  Those polls also show a not insignificant minority support the House Republicans’ current stance.   A Quinnipiac University poll today, for example, found 72 percent of Americans oppose the shutdown as a way to delay or defund Obamacare, but 22 percent do not.  The poll also found that 64 percent do not want Congress to block an increase in the debt limit as a method of opposing Obamacare, but 27 percent do.

Government Executive published statistics today showing that 98 percent of NASA workers have been furloughed, which is not the record.  The National Science Foundation furloughed 99 percent of its workforce.  The agencies with the fewest furloughs are those engaged in public safety and security such as the Department of Homeland Security (14 percent) and the Justice Department (16 percent).  The Department of Defense has furloughed 50 percent of its civilian workforce.   Military personnel are still on the job.

UPDATE, OCTOBER 1, 12:01 am EDT:  the White House Office of Management and Budget has issued the government shutdown order.  A link is provided at the end of this article.

ORIGINAL STORY, SEPTEMBER 30, 11:55 pm EDT:  The Senate this evening rejected continued House attempts to link continued  government funding to delays in the Affordable Care Act (ACA) as the clock ticked down to midnight and the beginning fo FY2014.  House Republicans countered by introducing an amendment calling for a conference with the Senate, a step that clearly cannot be completed before midnight.  With no government funding in sight, a shutdown is inevitable.  The question now is how long it will last.

As midnight approaches, the House is debating a House Republican proposal requesting a conference with the Senate over the Continuing Resolution (CR).  The two sides of Capitol Hill have been passing the CR back and forth for several days rather than holding a formal conference.  Either avenue is an acceptable path to reaching compromise and Democrats claim they have been seeking a conference with the House over the federal budget for months, but the Republicans have refused. 

The battle is between House Republicans who insist on tying continued government funding either to defunding or delaying ACA (Obamacare) and the Senate insisting on a “clean” CR that deals only with funding the government without political provisions.  Each party is blaming the other.  

Meanwhile, the government will shutdown in minutes.  It actually is a partial shutdown since some “excepted” activities will continue.   Late this evening, the President signed into law a bill that allows military personnel to be paid despite the shutdown.  Civilians who are engaged in excepted activities — like operating the International Space Station — will be paid eventually, once a funding bill is signed into law.   Hundreds of thousands of government civilian employees will be furloughed and there is no guarantee they will ever be paid.

Whether this is for a day, a few days, a week or several weeks is unknown at this point.

The White House Office of Management and Budget issued the shutdown order as midnight arrived.

 

In a press conference just seven hours before the midnight deadline for Congress to pass a funding bill or cause a partial government shutdown, President Obama listed NASA as one of the affected agencies.

Earlier today, the Senate rejected House-passed changes to the “clean” — absent political provisions — Continuing Resolution (CR) to keep the government operating that the Senate passed on Friday.   Later it did agree to a House-passed bill that would allow members of the military to be paid even during a government shutdown.  Guidance for DOD on Friday said the military would be paid, but only after Congress passed a FY2014 funding bill.   Thus their paychecks could have been delayed; now they will not.

Civilian DOD employees and hundreds of thousands of other government workers will not be as lucky.  Only a small percentage — those who are performing “excepted” activities — will continue to work and are guaranteed to be paid at some point.   The remainder will be furloughed with no guarantee that they will ever be paid. 

NASA posted its shutdown plan on Friday and it is evident that few NASA workers will be at their jobs.   NASA Headquarters told Center Directors to “narrowly construe” what activities are essential.   Operating spacecraft that already have been launched is one of the few essential activities identified.   The International Space Station (ISS) comes under that exception.  However, getting spacecraft ready for launch, for example the MAVEN spacecraft scheduled for launch to Mars in November, apparently is not among the exceptions:  “…if a satellite mission has not yet been launched, work will generally cease on that project.”

In a roughly 10 minute appearance about 5:00 pm Eastern Daylight Time (EDT) today, President Obama scolded House Republicans for attaching political provisions to a bill to keep the government operating.   He insisted that he remains hopeful that Congress “will choose to do the right thing” and pass a bill tonight, but offered a list of government activities and services that will continue and those that will cease if Congress does not.  

Social Security checks will continue to be processed, Medicare patients will still be able to see their doctors, the military will continue their duties, as well as air traffic controllers and border control agents.  

 “NASA will shut down almost entirely, but Mission Control will remain open to support the astronauts serving on the space station,” the President said.

Among the activities that will cease:  all the National Parks and Smithsonian museums will close, affecting the small businesses that rely on the tourist trade.  He also noted that the U.S. Government is the nation’s largest employer, with 2 million civilian workers plus 1.4 million active duty military, and hundreds of thousands will be out of work.

Meanwhile, up on Capitol Hill, it is impossible to guess the end game.  Check back here later this evening for any breaking news.

UPDATE, October 2, 2013:  We have updated the list to reflect the status of these meetings — mostly cancelled — because of the government shutdown.

The following events may be of interest in the week ahead.  The House and Senate are in session.

During the Week

Sunday, 9:00 pm EDT.   In just over 24 hours, FY2013 ends and FY2014 begins.   Even now, whether the government will continue operating after midnight Monday is anyone’s guess.  The chances of a shutdown appear more likely today than yesterday, however.  In the very early hours this morning, the House passed another version of a FY2014 Continuing Resolution (CR) that it knows the Senate and the President will reject.  It is somewhat different from the version it passed a week ago and that the Senate modified and returned to the House on Friday.  The original version would have defunded the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) while this one would delay its implementation for one year.   This version adds a provison repealing a tax on medical devices that was intended to pay some of the costs of Obamacare.   Apart from that, it is the same — funding the government through December 15 (instead of November 15 as the Senate prescribed) at a post-sequester level, substantially lower than the Senate-approved pre-sequester level. 

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) and the White House made clear that a delay to Obamacare is unacceptable.  In a Statement of Administration Policy, the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) made clear that the President would veto the House-passed bill if it included amendments that were, in fact, adopted by the House at 12:17 am Eastern Daylight Time this morning:  “If the President was presented with H. J. Res 59, as amended by these amendments, he would veto the bill.”

Despite the veto threat, the House passed that version of the CR and the Senate will take it up Monday afternoon.  The Senate is expected to strip out those amendments and return to the House the same bill they passed on Friday — a “clean” CR that simply keeps the government operating until November 15.  With time running short, the chances of the House either agreeing to the clean CR or passing something else and getting the Senate to also agree is very small.  Several politicians went on the record today to say they think a shutdown is inevitable, but it is perilous to try and guess what Congress will do in such situations.   If the government does shutdown, whether it will be for hours, days or weeks is totally unclear.

NASA and DOD posted their plans for what happens in the event of a shutdown.   Among the many activities affected, NASA states that there will be no access to the NASA website during a shutdown.  What will happen to government participation in the Asteroid Initiative Workshop that begins tomorrow in Houston is unclear.  The following events of interest are listed as though no government shutdown takes place.  If there is a shutdown, be sure to check with organizers to determine if the meeting will actually occur.

Monday-Wednesday, September 30 – October 2

• NASA Asteroid Initiative Workshop, Houston, TX.   By invitation only, but will be webcast.  (This meeting was cancelled after the first day because of the government shutdown due to lack of government funding.)

Tuesday-Wednesday, October 1-2

• NASA Advisory Council (NAC) Planetary Science Subcommittee, NASA Headquarters, Washington, DC.  (This meeting was cancelled because of the government shutdown due to lack of government funding.)   

Thursday, October 3

• Senate Commerce Committee Markup Presidential Nominations, 253 Russell Senate Office Building, 11:00 pm ET (This meeting was postponed because of the government shutdown due to lack of government funding)

Thursday-Friday, October 3-4

• Golden Spike-USRA International Science Workshop, Houston, TX  (As far as know, this meeting is still taking place)

Friday, October 4

• National Research Council Committee on Human Spaceflight Panel on Stakeholder and Public Opinions, NRC Keck Center, 500 Fifth St., NW, Washington, DC (The NRC informed us on October 2 that this meeting will be closed in its entirety.)

 

 

Yesterday, NASA and the Department of Defense (DOD released their plans in case of a government shutdown on Tuesday, the beginning of FY2014.  The Senate passed its version of a Continuing Resolution (CR) yesterday as expected, but agreement has not yet been reached with the House.

DOD’s shutdown plan is posted on its website .  It states that military personnel should report for duty as usual   Civilians must report on October 1 to receive their emergency furlough notices, but after that, only those who support “excepted activities”  such as military operations will be able to work.  Military personnel and excepted civilians will be paid retroactively, according to DOD, but furloughed civilians will not unless Congress passes a law providing that money.

NASA’s shutdown plan ensures that operating spacecraft — including the International Space Station — are unaffected.  Just about everything else is, however.  NASA Headquarters directed its Center Directors to “narrowly construe” who should be exempted from the furlough.  Exceptions include space launch hardware processing activities necessary to prevent harm to life or property, for example,  but “generally” work will halt on missions that have not yet been launched.

Action to avert a shutdown is in the House’s court today.   At 6:00 pm Eastern Daylight Time (EDT), the House appeared poised to pass a bill that extends government funding to December 15, but requires a one-year delay to the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) and repeal of an associated tax on medical devices.  A separate bill would allow military personnel to be paid during a shutdown (apparently as opposed to paying them retroactively).  

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) made clear this afternoon that the Senate would not agree to a bill that delays Obamacare, making a shutdown appear more likely, but it is still too early to make useful predictions about how this will turn out.