Shutdown Continues With No Immediate End in Sight

The Senate again failed to pass a Continuing Resolution today to reopen government agencies like NASA that are closed due to a lapse in appropriations. They plan to try again on Monday, but House Speaker Mike Johnson decided this afternoon to keep the House out of session next week as a further attempt to force the Senate to agree to the House-passed CR. If the Senate does not agree to his CR, the shutdown cannot end at least until the House returns to approve any changes. As of now, that would be October 14.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) both tried again this afternoon to move forward on new votes on their competing CRs.

Thune’s is H.R. 5371, which passed the House on September 19 and extends current funding through November 21 with no “poison pill” provisions — a “clean” CR. Schumer’s bill. S. 2882, would extend funding through October 31 and includes provisions to extend Affordable Care Act health care subsidies and roll-back Medicaid cuts in the recently-enacted reconciliation bill, H.R. 1 (the One Big, Beautiful Bill Act, or OBBBA).

In the Senate, 60 votes are needed to pass legislation like this. There are 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats and two Independents who caucus with the Democrats, basically a 53-47 split. The matter remains at a stalemate. Democrats complain Republicans will not negotiate with them over the health care provisions. Republicans assert the government must reopen first.

In a press conference this morning with Johnson before the votes, Thune said he’s open to conversations with Democrats about the health care subsidies “but that can’t happen while the government is shut down.”

Schumer said his caucus is adamant that “we must protect the healthcare of the American people.” Republicans have “vowed to make this a maximum pain shutdown … They’re using the American people as political pawns. Why? Because they don’t want to even talk to us about reopening the government by fixing health care.”

The votes today were essentially the same as on Tuesday and Wednesday except two Senators — Chris Coons (D-Delaware) and Jerry Moran (R-Kansas) — did not vote.

The Democratic bill was defeated 46-52.  Of those who voted, all Democrats and both Independents were in favor and all Republicans were against.

The Republican bill was defeated 54-44.  Of those who voted, all Republicans except Sen. Rand Paul (R-Kentucky) were in favor along with three members of the Democratic caucus: Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nevada), Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pennsylvania), and Sen. Angus King (I-Maine). All other Democrats and Independent Bernie Sanders (VT) were against.

Thune continues to hope five more from the Democratic caucus will join Cortez Masto, Fetterman and King to reach the 60 vote threshold. He needs eight from the Democratic side instead of seven because one Republican (Paul) opposes both bills.

There are Senators from the two parties who want to reopen the government, but even if some type of negotiated breakthrough is reached any changes must be approved by the House. Both chambers must agree to identical text. That can’t happen unless the House is in legislative session.

Johnson can call the House back at any time, but according to his decision this afternoon, it won’t return for legislative business until October 14, the day after the Columbus Day holiday. That means the shutdown will continue at least that long unless the Senate agrees to H.R. 5371 in its current form.

If there are changes and the House needs to re-vote, it can pass bills with a simple majority. The close party split, currently 219 Republicans and 213 Democrats, means just a handful of votes one way or the other can make the difference.

Delaying the House’s return also means Johnson likely will continue to postpone swearing in the newest Democratic House member, Adelita Grijalva of Arizona. She was elected on September 23 to replace her father, Raúl, who died earlier this year. Once she is sworn in, there will be 214 Democrats, giving them a slighter edge.

The House will meet in pro forma sessions next week as it did this week.  Legislative business cannot be conducted during a pro forma session, but Johnson may swear in new members. He declined to do so on Tuesday and again today, however.  He said he would do it the week of October 6, but that was before he decided to keep the House in recess next week.

Voters in Texas and Tennessee will soon fill two other vacancies. Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Texas) died on March 5 and the election to fill his seat is scheduled for November 4. Rep. Mark Green (R-Tennessee) resigned on July 21 and the election to replace him is December 2.

Hopefully the shutdown will be resolved long before then.  The longest shutdown was 35 days during President Trump’s first term.

One difference is that back then Congress had passed five of the appropriations bills, including for defense and the legislative branch (which funds Congress itself), so the impacts were not as widespread as now. Another is that Trump is threatening not just to furlough federal workers, but fire (RIF) them, so the stakes are much higher. Whether that influences political decision-making on either side remains to be seen.