What Will A Second Trump Term Mean for Space Policy?

Last night’s election of Donald Trump to return to the White House four years after he left office could portend significant changes in U.S. space activities. Or not. One day after any election is too soon to guess what any politician will do and Trump’s alliance with Elon Musk throws a wild card into the mix, but speculation is rampant.

Trump’s first term brought some pretty dramatic changes to the space program mostly due to Vice President Mike Pence’s leadership of the White House National Space Council with veteran space policy expert Scott Pace as executive secretary.

A few of the enduring highlights are initiating NASA’s Artemis program, modernizing commercial space regulations at the FAA and the Department of Commerce, and issuing seven Space Policy Directives, five Executive Orders, and an updated National Space Policy.

Another is creation of the U.S. Space Force and reestablishment of U.S. Space Command. Trump himself played a major role in those, overruling others in the Administration who  fought against congressional efforts to create a U.S. Space Corps for several years.

Pace returned to George Washington University as Director of the Space Policy Institute at the end of 2020. He told SpacePolicyOnline.com today he expects another banner term this time.

“The election of President Trump and soon-to-be Vice President Vance is a terrific win for U.S. leadership in space. Continuing President Trump’s policies from his first term, I believe we will see dramatic growth in the commercial space economy, a stronger U.S. Space Force, and U.S. missions to the Moon and Mars that will shape the international environment in favor of American values.” — Scott Pace

A major difference now, however, is Trump’s relationship with SpaceX founder and chief engineer Elon Musk who played a critical role in getting Trump elected. Trump said he’ll put Musk in charge of a “government efficiency commission” to reduce the size of government and cut back federal spending.

He also is in lockstep with Musk’s vision of putting people on Mars. He was a Mars advocate the first time, too. In April 2017, Trump said he wanted a human on Mars in his first term “or, at worst, during my second term.”  The directive to NASA to send humans back to the Moon first came from Pence, not Trump, and three months after Pence’s announcement, Trump tweeted the money should be spent on Mars instead.

For all of the money we are spending, NASA should NOT be talking about going to the Moon – We did that 50 years ago. They should be focused on the much bigger things we are doing, including Mars (of which the Moon is a part), Defense and Science!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 7, 2019

Trump and Musk were together on stage last night during Trump’s victory speech with Trump offering effusive praise.  “We have a new star. A star is born, Elon.”  He went on to extol last month’s Starship launch and “landing” when it was caught in mid-air back at the launch tower it had left just a few minutes earlier.  Trump watched it live: “And it was a beautiful thing to see, and I called Elon, I said, ‘Elon, was that you?’ He said, ‘Yes, it was.’ I said, ‘Who else can do that? Can Russia do it?’ ‘No.’ ‘Can China do it?” No.’ ‘Can the United States do it? Other than you?’ ‘No, nobody can do that.’ I said, ‘That’s why I love you, Elon.”

Mechazilla has caught the Super Heavy booster! pic.twitter.com/6R5YatSVJX

— SpaceX (@SpaceX) October 13, 2024

Starship was designed from the beginning to send people to Mars, but SpaceX also plans to use it as the Human Landing System for NASA’s lunar Artemis program. NASA awarded the company a $2.9 billion contract for the first landing, Artemis III, and another  $1.15 billion for the second, Artemis IV. In addition, SpaceX has a logistics contract to deliver cargo to the Gateway lunar space station, so it is invested in Artemis.

Would they add human trips to Mars to NASA’s already overburdened human spaceflight program, or replace Artemis? Presidential transitions in the past have caused major disruptions to NASA’s plans. Will it happen again?

Musk is renowned for his overly optimistic schedule estimates. He’s been saying for months that he’ll send five uncrewed Starships to Mars in 2026 and, if they succeed, people in 2028. That would match Trump’s goal, but is considered highly unrealistic. Setting aside the technical challenges and risks to human health of long duration exposure to galactic cosmic radiation, where would the money come from?

John Logsdon, who established GW’s Space Policy Institute and is Professor Emeritus there now, told SpacePolicyOnline that Musk could be a destabilizing influence.

“Space was an area of policy stability during the first Trump administration. With Elon Musk likely in a position of influence, that is not likely to be the case this time around.”  — John Logsdon

Campaign rhetoric is not a reliable indicator of what a politician will do once in office, but Trump has promised tax breaks to corporate America and a range of other initiatives that will reduce revenue to the government — like ending taxes on tips and making interest on car loans tax deductible.  At the same time, he and his surrogates in Congress have been demanding deep cuts to discretionary spending — the segment of the government budget that includes NASA, DOD and the other agencies most people are familiar with — to rein in the debt.

As head of the new government efficiency commission, Musk would be making recommendations on what to cut.  Asked how much, Musk replied  “at least $2 trillion.” That’s roughly the total of the annual discretionary budget. The remainder of the approximately $6.5 trillion budget is “mandatory” spending for programs like Medicare and Social Security. Politicians have been loathe to cut those  in the past for fear of voter retribution.

Musk’s statement may have been hyperbole, but the outlook for any relief from the cuts imposed by last year’s Fiscal Responsibility Act seems dim. For FY2024, NASA’s budget was cut two percent below what it had in FY2023 and while Congress has not completed action on FY2025, the request was only enough to bring it back to the FY2024 level.  The numbers approved by the House and Senate Appropriations Committees are in that range.

Whether congressional Republicans continue to demand debt reduction with Trump back in the White House remains to be seen — it was not an issue in Trump’s first term when he added a reported $8.4 trillion to the debt — but if it is, adding anything to NASA’s job jar will have to mean cuts to other NASA programs.

To the extent Musk is in charge of making recommendations on where to cut, he does have a vested interest in many NASA programs. SpaceX is NASA’s second largest contractor at $2.25 billion in FY2023, just behind the California Institute of Technology that operates JPL. In  addition to Artemis, SpaceX provides launch services, delivers cargo and crews to the International Space Station, uses the ISS as a destination for private astronaut missions, and is building the $1.5 billion U.S. Deorbit Vehicle.

In all, NASA’s human spaceflight program accounts for about half its budget.  As for NASA’s other programs, the first Trump Administration tried year after year to cancel NASA’s major earth science projects, one of the astrophysics programs (WFIRST, now known as the Roman Space Telescope), and the STEM engagement program.  Congress saved them every time usually adding money to the NASA budget to compensate for the additional costs. Whether they might do that again is an open question, but with NASA’s science budget already under strain from the FRA cuts, the outlook is concerning if debt reduction remains a key Republican goal.

At DOD, Trump’s personal involvement in creating the U.S. Space Force probably bodes well for that service. SpaceX is a major DOD contractor both for launch services and communications with its Starlink and Starshield systems.

Trump reestablished U.S. Space Command and days before leaving office decided to locate its headquarters in Huntsville, AL.  After three years of heated debate, Biden decided to keep it in Colorado Springs, CO, its temporary home. The decision incensed House Armed Services Committee chair Mike Rogers (R-AL) who is expected to ask Trump to overturn Biden’s decision in short order.

Another area where Musk might be influential is the government regulatory system for commercial space activities. Musk repeatedly chafes against the FAA Office of Commercial Space Transportation’s regulatory process, especially how long it takes to get approval. He also objects to many of the environmental regulations that restrict activities at the Boca Chica, TX launch site.

NOAA, part of the Department of Commerce, is home to the Office of Space Commerce, which regulates commercial remote sensing satellites and is in charge of providing basic space situational awareness data and services to non-military satellite operators. NOAA’s fate in Trump’s second term is uncertain. Trump had a tense relationship with NOAA during his first term and some of his supporters want to break up the agency.

The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) is another regulatory agency, assigning radio frequencies and establishing space debris regulations. The FCC is not part of the administration, however, so not directly under the control of the President. It reports to Congress, although its five commissioners — three from the President’s party and two from the other party — are nominated by the President and confirmed by the Senate. Musk is said to be friendly with the top Republican on the commission, Brendan Carr.

The bottom line is that no one knows today how space programs and policies will fare in a second Trump term. Trump is enthusiastic about the U.S. Space Force, sending people to Mars, and Elon Musk.  In his first term, he was not enthusiastic about NOAA or NASA’s STEM education program or some of its science projects, especially earth science.

Trump will have to decide if he wants to keep the National Space Council or not. If he does, by law the Vice President chairs it. Then-Vice President Pence played a major role in space policy in the first Trump term. Incoming Vice President JD Vance does not appear to have any background in space, but Pence’s was limited when he became chair so that is not necessarily an indicator of what Vance might do.

The key to what the U.S. can accomplish in space over the next four years will be budgets, so keep an eye out for Trump’s first budget submission in the spring for clues.